Tag Archives: Nikhil Goyal

Primary Night Instant Reaction, To Be UPDATED Until All the Key Races are Settled

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So it’s primary night in Vermont, and as the results come in, I’m here to read and react. Stay tuned!

Maybe Planet Hank Isn’t a Genius After All. The first contested race to be called by the Associated Press was the Republican primary for the chance to lose to U.S. Rep. Becca Balint in November. And the big winner was Gerald Malloy, who beat Mark Coester by a better than two-to-one margin. Coester’s low-rent campaign leaned heavily on AI-generated Balint attack videos produced by “Planet Hank” Poitras. I had worried that Hank could prove to be a rising star in Vermont conservative circles, because those folks are often drawn to extreme, flashy rhetoric. My concerns are significantly assuaged tonight. Not that we can close the books on Hank, but Coester’s lopsided loss blows a big hole in Hank’s reputation for strategery.

Malloy, meanwhile, kinda-sorta positioned himself as the “moderate,” if only by the current standards of Republican politics. The few Malloy campaign signs I spotted did not feature his notorious scary eagle logo, which I guess was part of the rebranding? No matter; Malloy is destined to go down to his third consecutive defeat in November. In 2022 he got 28% of the vote to Peter Welch’s 68.5% in the race for U.S. Senate. In 2024 he upped his total to 32% while Bernie Sanders took 63%. At this rate, Malloy will win an election in the year 2036. I think that’s a highly optimistic view of his political future.

Molly Gray’s Big Night. The second major race to be called was the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. Turned out the UNH opinion polls got this one right; former LG Molly Gray had no trouble defeating Ryan McLaren and Esther Charlestin. McLaren’s furious fundraising and spending elevated him from a third-place tie with Charlestin to a solid but very distant second. As of this writing, Gray has more than twice as many votes as McLaren.

(The UNH polls were equally prophetic about the Malloy/Coester race. Maybe we should take the other results seriously?)

Instant reax: Gray had a huge advantage in name recognition entering the contest. Mclaren is well known in Democratic circles but had no public profile to speak of before he launched his campaign. He didn’t have much time to close that gap. And I have to say, he didn’t present a convincing rationale for his candidacy — not convincing enough for voters to abandon the candidate they knew. McLaren complained about internal Vermont Democratic Party doings, a tactic that didn’t resonate with the public and may have hurt him with party insiders. He apparently tossed another grenade last month that exploded in the forest and nobody heard? This intriguing nugget from VTDigger’s election night coverage:

In strongly worded interviews, McLaren told VTDigger last month that both of his opponents were falling back on the lieutenant governor role after failing to achieve a higher office (referring, in Gray’s case, to an unsuccessful U.S. House run in 2022).

The Digger story does not include a link to any previous coverage of McLaren’s “strongly worded” remarks, and I don’t remember reading anything about them. Did I miss it? Did Digger not think his statements were newsworthy? If so, that’s an egregious error.

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I Hope the Democrats Have Money Left After the Primary

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The good news, if you favor the Democrats, is that many of their candidates have been able to raise impressive amounts of money in advance of next week’s primary.

The bad news: They’ve spent a lot of their cash in ways that are only tangentially related to advancing the cause in November. Here’s hoping there’s more money where all of that came from.

I mean, look: The two top Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor, Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren, have raised a combined total of close to $750,000. That should be more than enough to fuel an entire campaign for the ol’ bucket of warm piss, but Gray and Mclaren are going to spend most of it by next Tuesday. Gray’s reported spending totaled $248,000 as of August 1, while McLaren had spent $293,000 by then — plus another $52,000 on TV ads reported separately after he’d filed his 8/1 report. Add it all up, that’s $593,000 spent, invested, squandered, take your pick, on the Democratic nomination for an essentially ceremonial office.

The two gubernatorial candidates, meanwhile, have raised $742,000 and spent $632,000. (Amanda Janoo: raised $303,000 and spent $255,000; Aly Richards raised $439,000 and spent $347,000.) The winner will have exceeded expectations for fundraising, but August 12 will find her back at the bottom of the mountain having to push the giant boulder up to the top. As of August 1, Richards had $92,000 in the bank but has spent another $30,000 on TV ads since then, which drops her account balance down to $62,000. Janoo had $46,000 in the bank on August 1 and has since spent $2,000 more on Facebook ads, so her known balance is at $44,000.

Gov. Phil Scott, meanwhile, has been coasting along. He entered the campaign with $240,000 left over from 2024. He’s spent virtually nothing and raised a modest amount, bringing his bank balance up to $309,000. In other words, the Democratic winner will have to do some heavy lifting just to catch up with the governor. And if he feels threatened at all, he’ll kick it in high gear and his base will respond. Two years ago Howard Dean estimated that a challenge to Scott would cost a minimum of $2 million; that seems like a reasonable amount. The Democratic nominee will have less than three months to build a warchest and mount a statewide challenge against a popular governor. Calling it “a tall order” seems like an understatement.

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So Who’s Spending It, and Where’s It Going?

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While us campaign finance sickos breathlessly await the August 1 filing deadline, we can occupy a bit of our time by tracking the mass media buys reported since July 1. There are quite a few, in fact.

Explainer for those who need it: Whenever a candidate spends $500 or more on mass media (radio, TV, digital ads, printing, mailing, etc.), they must report it to the Secretary of State’s office within a couple of days, a rule often honored more in the breach than the observance.

Can you guess where the most money was spent on mass media this month? That’s right, it’s the Democratic race for lieutenant governor by a country mile. Ryan Mclaren, last seen trailing badly in the polls, poured $125,100 into TV ad buys conducted by Georgia-based Canal Partners Media. Apparent front-runner Molly Gray has spent $112,918 on TV ad buys done by Virginia-based Screen Strategies Media and another $26,537 on postcard mailings by Berlin Rosen LLC of New York for a grand total of $168,135.

Couldn’t help noticing as I scanned all these reports that virtually all statewide candidates and some legislative hopefuls are contracting their printing and media buys out of state. I guess the big firms know what they’re doing, but home cooking seems to be a thing of the past.

Anyway, McLaren and Gray have combined to spend almost $300,000 on a non-gubernatorial primary election. That’s got to be an all-time record. If it’s not, make sure to let me know in the Comments.

Whatever, it’s a fuck-ton of money for a bucket of warm piss, and a further indication that incumbent Republican John Rodgers is extremely vulnerable; both Democrats must feel like the primary is their biggest hurdle.

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Are the Republicans Even Trying for the State Senate?

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I’ve done a fairly close reading of the July 1 campaign finance reports for state Senate candidates (So You Don’t Have To), and one thing jumped right out at me: Republican candidates are be doing little or nothing.

Including at least a couple of incumbents. It’s remarkable.

A couple of caveats apply. Few of these people face primary competition, so it’s early. And in 2024, the Barons of Burlington swarmed in after the 4th of July and dumped four-figure checks into the campaign accounts of several Republican Senate candidates plus LG hopeful John Rodgers. They could still do the same this year. We eagerly await the August 1 campaign finance deadline.

But there’s one fact, previously noted in this space, that makes me think it might not happen. In the spring of 2024, Gov. Phil Scott’s campaign blew a bunch of money on polling. A curious expenditure, given that he had clear sailing in his bid for another term. From the course of events it’s easy to infer that the polling focused on other races, specifically LG and the Senate. Because it was after the polling that (a) the Barons activated their checkbooks and (b) Scott himself got off his ass and actively campaigned for those key candidates.

Well, this spring the Scott campaign did virtually nothing. It spent a mere $7,000 between March 15 and July 1, and none of it was for polling. I can’t say for sure that Scott and the Republicans have given up on extending their legislative gains of 2024, but it’s kinda-sorta starting to look that way. They may be content with preventing a return of Democratic supermajorities. Which should be achievable; I think it’ll be a long time before the Dems win 20 seats in the Senate again.

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Campaign Finance Deadline #1: The Money’s Going to Some Unexpected Places

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So March 15 was the first campaign finance deadline (in Vermont) of 2026, and the second won’t come until July 1, mere weeks before the August primary. Yesterday was a big day, in other words, and there were some clear winners in the field. And not necessarily the winners you’d want, if you were to distribute the available Democratic dollars to the top-priority contests.

Which are, to my eye: Running a credible race for governor, rebuilding the state Senate majority, and knocking Lt. Gov. John Rodgers off his perch. It will be no shock whatsoever to learn that the usual Democratic donors seem to be paying little attention to the gubernatorial, and a lot of cash is being funneled into primary contests for safe Democratic seats. The only race where priority and cash are equivalent is in the Democratic race for lieutenant governor.

One saving grace: Many of the top fundraising candidates were drawing, in part, from unique sources of support rather than draining the mainstream Democratic pool. Many of Nikhil Goyal’s many, many donors, for instance, wouldn’t have given to anyone else.

The race for biggest moneybags of March is a virtual tie between Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren, Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor. They each raised more than $150,000, which is awfully impressive. Lookin’ like a red-hot race there.

Biggest moneybags per capita: state Senate candidate Goyal, who raised the eye-popping sum of $86,193.

Much better than expected: Recently declared Democratic candidate for governor Amanda Janoo, who cleared the $80,000 mark. That’s a really strong start, but she still has a ton of work to do.

Highest burn rate: Treasurer Mike Pieciak, who somehow managed to spend close to $60,000 in the early stages of a race for re-election he’s all but certain to win. Much of that cash went to expensive out-of-state campaign operatives. It’s almost as if he’s laying the groundwork for a seemingly inevitable run for governor.

There are your toplines. For those as obsessed with campaign cash as This Observer, more details follow.

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‘Tis the Season for Strained Racing Analogies

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Looks like a real contest is developing in the Chittenden Central state Senate district, where three seats will be up for grabs in 2026. The three sitting solons, who seem likely to run for re-election, may find as many as four other names on the Democratic primary ballot next August.

In other words, Donkey Race!

Chittenden-Central is, geographically speaking, the smallest Senate district by a longshot. On a map it resembles Nepal after encontering an old-fashioned laundry mangle. It includes much of northern and central Burlington, the city of Winooski, a bit of Colchester, the city of Essex Junction, and part of the town of Essex. Politically speaking, it may be the most liberal Senate district in the state. The incumbents are Senate President Pro Tem Phil Baruth, listed on the ballot as a D/P, Democratic Sen. Martine Laroque Gulick, and P/D Sen. Tanya Vyhovsky.

So who’s running? Glad you asked.

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