Well, there it is. The last (I think) pre-election poll in the race for Vermont governor. And yes, that’s Democrat Amanda Janoo holding an eight-point lead over Gov. Phil Scott, comfortably beyond the poll’s margin of error and a tick north of the all-important 50% mark.
The poll comes from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, and must be accompanied by a couple of caveats. First, the UNH results have been more Janoo-friendly* than the single Vermont Public poll or the ongoing efforts of State Navigate. Second, I’m not sure the Center believes its own product. Its report was headlined “Blue Wave Lifts Janoo Over Scott in Vermont?”
*The Center’s latest Maine poll shows Democrat Troy Jackson with a nine-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Either this will be a true wave election, or UNHSC will have some cleaning up to do.
That’s right, they attached a question mark to their own headline. It’s as if they can’t really believe the results of their own work.
Also worth noting, or puzzling over: The survey’s respondents don’t believe it themselves! 62% of all respondents, including 40% of Janoo voters, predict that Scott will win. Which is very close to where the prediction markets are heading. As recently as September 22, 94% of all bets predictions on Kalshi were for Scott. The governor’s share of the Kalshi action is now at 66% and Janoo is at 34%.
