Tag Archives: Aly Richards

Now, This Is a Fascinating Map of Vermont

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No, not THAT map. Although it’s fascinating in its own way; it seems that Vermont has been gay-friendly for a very long time. Ooh, strapping young men with powerful (ahem) tools!

But I digress, and right off the top too. I’m referring to a map prepared by VTDigger’s ace data reporter Erin Petenko which I dare not reproduce for copyright reasons. You’ll have to check it out in situ. Scroll down far enough in Digger’s recap of Amanda Janoo’s primary victory and you’ll see it.

The map shows how each Vermont city and town voted in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. You can see at a glance which candidate won where. (If you run your cursor over a town, the map shows you the winner’s name and their percentage of the vote. Also, for real nerds, the caption includes a link to the Secretary of State’s Excel spreadsheet containing all the results town-by-town.)

And the map is kind of a muddle with some really interesting features.

The first thing I noticed, because of my membership on the board of The Hardwick Gazette, is that Janoo did extremely well in The Gazette’s home turf. She took 72% of the vote in Greensboro, 68% in Hardwick, 67% in Stannard, 66% in Woodbury, 65% in Craftsbury, and 60% in Walden. She also did very well in nearby communities like Elmore, Barton, and Glover, hometown and legal nemesis of Lt. Gov. John Rodgers.

Indeed, Janoo scored well across a great swath of northern Vermont from Franklin County through Lamoille and Orleans and into the Northeast Kingdom. Just south of that you find a thinner band of Aly Richards strongpoints, from the Burlington suburbs through the Barre-Montpelier area and on to the upper Connecticut River Valley. And south of that is another Janoo band in Addison, Orange, and Windsor counties. Southern Vermont is a mixed bag, with Janoo scoring well in the southeast and south central, and getting a pocket of support along the New York border in places like Middletown Springs, Wells, and Pawlet. Richards dominated the rest of the southern tier below a line from Orwell to Norwich.

See what I mean? Make sense of that, will you?

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It’s a Janoo Day, Yes It Is

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For those unfamiliar, this was The New Day, an uber-popular tag team in the WWE who began their entrance routine with the slogan “It’s a new day, yes it is.” I’m not suggesting that newly minted gubernatorial nominee Amanda Janoo adopt it as a campaign slogan because WWE has squadrons of copyright lawyers on speed dial. But the sentiment is appropriate after Janoo, a candidate of progressive ideas, won out over the well-funded but sketchily defined Aly Richards.

Richards began her campaign with a pitch amounting to “A lot like Phil Scott, but nicer and maybe more competent” and ended with the generous backing of an independent PAC operating under the blandest possible name “Time for a Change.” Turns out that wasn’t a compelling message. Who could have guessed.

It was a big missed opportunity for Richards. Her stewardship of Let’s Grow Kids is an authentic political success story. She shepherded a major child care reform plan through the Legislature and got Gov. Phil Scott to sign it*. Since then, he’s been constantly whingeing about one Democratic initiative or another — but never ever utters a word about the child care plan. To me, that’s proof of its popularity.

*Correction: Scott vetoed the bill and the Legislature overrode. Which makes his subsequent reticence all the more noticeable.

Richards could have used child care as a banner of progressive reform. Or if you prefer, solid Democratic reform. She could have presented plans to address other major issues instead of vague gestures. Instead, she used LGK as proof of her backstage maneuvering success. It was a process argument, and those rarely resonate with voters.

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Primary Night Instant Reaction, To Be UPDATED Until All the Key Races are Settled

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So it’s primary night in Vermont, and as the results come in, I’m here to read and react. Stay tuned!

Maybe Planet Hank Isn’t a Genius After All. The first contested race to be called by the Associated Press was the Republican primary for the chance to lose to U.S. Rep. Becca Balint in November. And the big winner was Gerald Malloy, who beat Mark Coester by a better than two-to-one margin. Coester’s low-rent campaign leaned heavily on AI-generated Balint attack videos produced by “Planet Hank” Poitras. I had worried that Hank could prove to be a rising star in Vermont conservative circles, because those folks are often drawn to extreme, flashy rhetoric. My concerns are significantly assuaged tonight. Not that we can close the books on Hank, but Coester’s lopsided loss blows a big hole in Hank’s reputation for strategery.

Malloy, meanwhile, kinda-sorta positioned himself as the “moderate,” if only by the current standards of Republican politics. The few Malloy campaign signs I spotted did not feature his notorious scary eagle logo, which I guess was part of the rebranding? No matter; Malloy is destined to go down to his third consecutive defeat in November. In 2022 he got 28% of the vote to Peter Welch’s 68.5% in the race for U.S. Senate. In 2024 he upped his total to 32% while Bernie Sanders took 63%. At this rate, Malloy will win an election in the year 2036. I think that’s a highly optimistic view of his political future.

Molly Gray’s Big Night. The second major race to be called was the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. Turned out the UNH opinion polls got this one right; former LG Molly Gray had no trouble defeating Ryan McLaren and Esther Charlestin. McLaren’s furious fundraising and spending elevated him from a third-place tie with Charlestin to a solid but very distant second. As of this writing, Gray has more than twice as many votes as McLaren.

(The UNH polls were equally prophetic about the Malloy/Coester race. Maybe we should take the other results seriously?)

Instant reax: Gray had a huge advantage in name recognition entering the contest. Mclaren is well known in Democratic circles but had no public profile to speak of before he launched his campaign. He didn’t have much time to close that gap. And I have to say, he didn’t present a convincing rationale for his candidacy — not convincing enough for voters to abandon the candidate they knew. McLaren complained about internal Vermont Democratic Party doings, a tactic that didn’t resonate with the public and may have hurt him with party insiders. He apparently tossed another grenade last month that exploded in the forest and nobody heard? This intriguing nugget from VTDigger’s election night coverage:

In strongly worded interviews, McLaren told VTDigger last month that both of his opponents were falling back on the lieutenant governor role after failing to achieve a higher office (referring, in Gray’s case, to an unsuccessful U.S. House run in 2022).

The Digger story does not include a link to any previous coverage of McLaren’s “strongly worded” remarks, and I don’t remember reading anything about them. Did I miss it? Did Digger not think his statements were newsworthy? If so, that’s an egregious error.

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I Hope the Democrats Have Money Left After the Primary

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The good news, if you favor the Democrats, is that many of their candidates have been able to raise impressive amounts of money in advance of next week’s primary.

The bad news: They’ve spent a lot of their cash in ways that are only tangentially related to advancing the cause in November. Here’s hoping there’s more money where all of that came from.

I mean, look: The two top Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor, Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren, have raised a combined total of close to $750,000. That should be more than enough to fuel an entire campaign for the ol’ bucket of warm piss, but Gray and Mclaren are going to spend most of it by next Tuesday. Gray’s reported spending totaled $248,000 as of August 1, while McLaren had spent $293,000 by then — plus another $52,000 on TV ads reported separately after he’d filed his 8/1 report. Add it all up, that’s $593,000 spent, invested, squandered, take your pick, on the Democratic nomination for an essentially ceremonial office.

The two gubernatorial candidates, meanwhile, have raised $742,000 and spent $632,000. (Amanda Janoo: raised $303,000 and spent $255,000; Aly Richards raised $439,000 and spent $347,000.) The winner will have exceeded expectations for fundraising, but August 12 will find her back at the bottom of the mountain having to push the giant boulder up to the top. As of August 1, Richards had $92,000 in the bank but has spent another $30,000 on TV ads since then, which drops her account balance down to $62,000. Janoo had $46,000 in the bank on August 1 and has since spent $2,000 more on Facebook ads, so her known balance is at $44,000.

Gov. Phil Scott, meanwhile, has been coasting along. He entered the campaign with $240,000 left over from 2024. He’s spent virtually nothing and raised a modest amount, bringing his bank balance up to $309,000. In other words, the Democratic winner will have to do some heavy lifting just to catch up with the governor. And if he feels threatened at all, he’ll kick it in high gear and his base will respond. Two years ago Howard Dean estimated that a challenge to Scott would cost a minimum of $2 million; that seems like a reasonable amount. The Democratic nominee will have less than three months to build a warchest and mount a statewide challenge against a popular governor. Calling it “a tall order” seems like an understatement.

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Some Deep Out-of-State Pockets are Backing Aly Richards

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This is a screenshot of an ad that’s been circulating on behalf of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Aly Richards. But it didn’t come from her campaign; it was paid for by the (apparently) newborn Independent Expenditure PAC known as “Time for a Change.”

IE-PACs, for those just tuning in, can spend on behalf of favored candidates but can’t coordinate their activities with anyone’s campaign. And this one has a bucket of money to spend by Vermont standards— although it’s getting in gear awfully late in the game.

As of the July 1 reporting deadline, TFAC was in the Secretary of State’s campaign finance system but had yet to raise or spend a single dime. Its August 1 report is a different kettle of fish altogether. TFAC reported raising $230,025 in a single month. The bulk of the total, a flat $200,000, was donated by businesses, not individuals. What’s more, $225,000 came from out of state. Only $5,025 was donated to TFAC by Vermonters. Are anyone else’s hackles raised a little bit, or is it just me?

In its August 1 campaign finance filing, TFAC only reported spending $8,500 (to D.C.-based Liftoff Campaigns LLC for “Media – Consulting”), but that doesn’t tell the story. It has also filed FOUR separate Mass Media filings in the last three days, none of which are reflected in its August 1 report. TFAC sent $50,000 to D.C.-based Middle Seat for online ad buys; another $60,000 to Liftoff Campaigns for “text messaging”; $35,000 to Liftoff for “Online Advertising”; and another $56,500 to Liftoff for more “online advertising.” That’s a total spend of $210,000 in a matter of days!

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So Who’s Spending It, and Where’s It Going?

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While us campaign finance sickos breathlessly await the August 1 filing deadline, we can occupy a bit of our time by tracking the mass media buys reported since July 1. There are quite a few, in fact.

Explainer for those who need it: Whenever a candidate spends $500 or more on mass media (radio, TV, digital ads, printing, mailing, etc.), they must report it to the Secretary of State’s office within a couple of days, a rule often honored more in the breach than the observance.

Can you guess where the most money was spent on mass media this month? That’s right, it’s the Democratic race for lieutenant governor by a country mile. Ryan Mclaren, last seen trailing badly in the polls, poured $125,100 into TV ad buys conducted by Georgia-based Canal Partners Media. Apparent front-runner Molly Gray has spent $112,918 on TV ad buys done by Virginia-based Screen Strategies Media and another $26,537 on postcard mailings by Berlin Rosen LLC of New York for a grand total of $168,135.

Couldn’t help noticing as I scanned all these reports that virtually all statewide candidates and some legislative hopefuls are contracting their printing and media buys out of state. I guess the big firms know what they’re doing, but home cooking seems to be a thing of the past.

Anyway, McLaren and Gray have combined to spend almost $300,000 on a non-gubernatorial primary election. That’s got to be an all-time record. If it’s not, make sure to let me know in the Comments.

Whatever, it’s a fuck-ton of money for a bucket of warm piss, and a further indication that incumbent Republican John Rodgers is extremely vulnerable; both Democrats must feel like the primary is their biggest hurdle.

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Phil Scott Slides Below 50%, John Rodgers Is in Trouble, and Other Notes from a New UNH Poll

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After months of essentially ignoring the contested statewide primary races, our media outlets are suddenly starting to pay attention. It’s as if somebody glanced at a calendar and realized the primary is less than three weeks away, wow, we’d better get on the stick.

I mean, a story posted this week by Vermont Public termed the primary “sleepy,” to which I say, well, whose fault is that? The Democratic candidates for governor and lieutenant governor have been working their asses off, traveling around the state, speaking to anyone who will invite them, and fundraising at a robust pace. They’ve been doing their part; it’s the media that have, until now, made this a “sleepy” primary by paying it little attention.

Enough ranting, let’s get to business. The University of New Hampshire Research Center has published another poll on Vermont politics, and the basic throughline is a gradual cementing of previously seen trends. But there are some notable results, such as a drop below 50% approval for our legendarily popular Gov. Phil Scott. In a June survey, Scott had fallen from his accustomed perch in the low to mid 60s down to 51%. (He was at 60% as recently as last fall.) Now he’s at 48%, with 43% disapproving and 8% expressing no opinion. What’s more, the ranks of the “Strongly” disapproving rose from 15% to 20%. Fresh dents in the Teflon?

There’s more in the gubernatorial numbers but first I want to hit the LG results, which show incumbent Republican John Rodgers in serious trouble. In hypothetical matchups, Rodgers loses to any of the three Democrats in the race — including Esther Charlestin. And he seems to be falling further behind. Another thing: on the gambling racket prediction marketplace Kalshi, for what it’s worth, 71% of the wagers are on the Democrats taking back the ol’ bucket of warm piss. (Fascinating Kalshi note: “Republican” held a 60-40 edge until July 3, when “Republican” took a sudden plunge and “Democrat” surged. The market has stayed essentially the same since then.) (Humbling Kalshi note: Bets on the LG race total less than $14,000, while bets on “LeBron James Next Team” are more than $214,000,000.)

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The Money Race Is, As They Say, Heating Up. In Some Precincts, Anyway.

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The first of July marked the most important pre-primary campaign finance deadline for Vermont candidates. The occasion was marked by a depressing lack of coverage in our respectable media. VTDigger ran a boilerplate piece that reported a bunch of numbers but offered little insight. Seven Days and Vermont Public didn’t do anything, as far as I can tell. Our daily papers are a wasteland for political coverage and I rarely watch local TV news, which is largely an exercise in cranking out enough easy content to space out the advertising.

Which is a damn shame because there are definite points of interest, and because this is the most meaningful pre-primary snapshot of the money races. The previous deadline of March 15 was so early that some major candidates (Aly Richards, for instance) had yet to toss their metaphorical hats in the ring. The next deadline of August 1 is very close to primary day, so whatever might be revealed in those reports won’t have much of a chance to sink in.

Altough that’s kind of a moot point since the media is largely ignoring campaign finance altogether. If there was a nuclear revelation to be found, chances are nobody would notice and it would go unreported.

So let’s get to the July 1 numbers and what they tell us about Campaign 2026.

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Hey, We’ve Got a New Poll and… Phil Scott is Vulnerable??

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Speaking from experience, one of the biggest mistakes political pundits can make is writing political obituaries for Gov. Phil Scott. He is the grand champeen of Vermont politicians, having gone undefeated since his original election to the state Senate way back in 2000. If he wins re-election in November, he will have done what no other Vermonter has managed: winning six gubernatorial elections. He’s a couple years shy of Howard Dean’s record tenancy in the corner office, but Dean first became governor upon the death of Dick Snelling. He was elected governor “only” five times.

Still, a new opinion poll brings some bad news for Scott. He remains the overwhelming favorite to go where no pol has gone before, but the bloom is coming off the rose. Storm clouds can be seen on the distant horizon. There are perceptible dents in his previously spotless Teflon coat. The tires are showing signs of wear.

Enough half-baked analogies. Since there are no polling organizations in Vermont, we have to settle for this offering from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. There are a bunch of interesting numbers to be found, but let’s start with the bloom and the clouds and the dents and the tires.

Scott’s favorability rating, whose customary habitat is in the stratosphere, now sits uncomfortably close to 50%. In matchups with relatively little-known Democratic opponents, he comes nowhere near a majority. And only one-third of Vermonters think the state is headed in the right direction.

And now, the details.

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The Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Offers a Real Choice on Policy and Approach

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This is what I got when I asked Canva’s AI illustration generator to give me a picture of “donkeys debating,” in case you wondered whether AI is ready to manage human civilization on our behalf. (Behalves?)

Anyway, the subject for today’s sermon is the Democratic primary for governor, featuring two worthy but unconventional candidates: Economic policy analyst Amanda Janoo versus Aly Richards, best known as the former head of Let’s Grow Kids. One can only hope that the primary campaign will start attracting more than token attention, now that the legislative session is safely in the rear-view.

(Prime example of token attention: This WPTZ-TV whiz-banger from March 11 entitled “Vermont Gov. Phil Scott applauds Amanda Janoo for running for governor.” We’re so glad you approve, sir.)

If you’re of a mind to pay some attention, there’s no better place to begin than two recent editions of “802 News,” the podcast hosted by veteran journalist (a.k.a. Fellow Old Guy) Mark Johnson. He conducted in-depth interviews with both candidates, providing insight into the beliefs and personalities of the two contenders in a convenient two-part package. Listening to them gives you a clear picture of two candidates who promise very different approaches to the office.

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