Category Archives: 2026 election

The Money Race Is, As They Say, Heating Up. In Some Precincts, Anyway.

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The first of July marked the most important pre-primary campaign finance deadline for Vermont candidates. The occasion was marked by a depressing lack of coverage in our respectable media. VTDigger ran a boilerplate piece that reported a bunch of numbers but offered little insight. Seven Days and Vermont Public didn’t do anything, as far as I can tell. Our daily papers are a wasteland for political coverage and I rarely watch local TV news, which is largely an exercise in cranking out enough easy content to space out the advertising.

Which is a damn shame because there are definite points of interest, and because this is the most meaningful pre-primary snapshot of the money races. The previous deadline of March 15 was so early that some major candidates (Aly Richards, for instance) had yet to toss their metaphorical hats in the ring. The next deadline of August 1 is very close to primary day, so whatever might be revealed in those reports won’t have much of a chance to sink in.

Altough that’s kind of a moot point since the media is largely ignoring campaign finance altogether. If there was a nuclear revelation to be found, chances are nobody would notice and it would go unreported.

So let’s get to the July 1 numbers and what they tell us about Campaign 2026.

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Hey, We’ve Got a New Poll and… Phil Scott is Vulnerable??

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Speaking from experience, one of the biggest mistakes political pundits can make is writing political obituaries for Gov. Phil Scott. He is the grand champeen of Vermont politicians, having gone undefeated since his original election to the state Senate way back in 2000. If he wins re-election in November, he will have done what no other Vermonter has managed: winning six gubernatorial elections. He’s a couple years shy of Howard Dean’s record tenancy in the corner office, but Dean first became governor upon the death of Dick Snelling. He was elected governor “only” five times.

Still, a new opinion poll brings some bad news for Scott. He remains the overwhelming favorite to go where no pol has gone before, but the bloom is coming off the rose. Storm clouds can be seen on the distant horizon. There are perceptible dents in his previously spotless Teflon coat. The tires are showing signs of wear.

Enough half-baked analogies. Since there are no polling organizations in Vermont, we have to settle for this offering from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. There are a bunch of interesting numbers to be found, but let’s start with the bloom and the clouds and the dents and the tires.

Scott’s favorability rating, whose customary habitat is in the stratosphere, now sits uncomfortably close to 50%. In matchups with relatively little-known Democratic opponents, he comes nowhere near a majority. And only one-third of Vermonters think the state is headed in the right direction.

And now, the details.

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The Rich Scent of Astroturf Descends Upon Our Verdant Landscape

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This, my friends, is what you get when you ask Canva’s AI illustration tool to render “Vermont landscape.” And it’s a great example of the stuff you see when you visit websites or social media feeds for conservative candidates or causes.There’s a lot of AI usage; there are also things like tech bros defending rural Vermont and sudden-onset farmers with possibly inoperative staycation programs. In short, there’s a hell of a lot of astroturf in the conservative ideosphere.

These groups and individuals allegedly believe that rural Vermont is a precious resource, central to our very identity, and the people who live there are the true, authentic Vermonters, not those miserable lefty masses huddled in our “urban” communities. And yet these people present themselves with an inauthentic feel that makes you wonder what the hell is going on.

With AI maybe it’s a rights issue, not wanting to pay for copyrighted photography. Or maybe it’s just too haaaaaaaaard to do a DuckDuckGo image search. Or possibly, spitballin’ here, these color-saturated simulacra reveal something about the fakeness of the message itself. Because the Golden Age of the “real Vermont” — you know, the time before the unkempt flatlander rabble of hippies and Bernie Sanders fans descended upon the Green Mountain State — never actually existed.

So, when Sen. Russ Ingalls’ The Vermont Party posts a(n AI image of a) lapel pin saying “Make Vermont Vermont Again,” what year or time period does he have in mind?

I’m guessing it’s before the construction of the interstate freeway system, the development ranked by longtime journalist Chris Graff as the most consequential in recent Vermont history*. Before the freeways came, Vermont was a sleepy backwater that was difficult to navigate, so hardly anybody bothered to try. The freeways made our state much more accessible, enabling the arrival of those damn hippies and progressive types who eventually staged a hostile takeover of Vermont’s social order. (Never forget, Romain Tenney died for your sins.)

*Census data confirms Graff’s hypothesis. Our population grew extremely slowly from 1900 to 1960. The freeways triggered three decades of double-digit growth, sending our population from 360,000 to 563,000.

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We’re About to Get a Good Read on How Crazy the Vermont Republican Party Is

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Sad to say, but we’ve arrived at the point where Scary Eagle Man is the only sensible choice.

That’s because Gerald Malloy is running for the Republican Congressional nomination against hyper-manly-man Mark Coester, seen here in an AI-generated video purportedly wagging his finger in U.S. Rep. Becca Balint’s face. I’d dare him to try that in real life. He’d find out just how scrappy that little dyke can be.

And if the Republican primary electorate chooses Coester over Malloy, then we’ll know for sure that Gov. Phil Scott’s version of Republicanism is well and truly dead. Because if there was any doubt about whether Coester is a certified far-right whack job [Narrator: “There wasn’t“], he removed it in one brief conversation with Seven Days’ Kevin McCallum.

In said conversation, he addressed McCallum as a “libtard fuck,” and later added this gem: “These commie fucks in Vermont pass whatever garbage fuckin’ laws they want to. They can do what and they can kiss my ass…”

As a loyal member of the Vermont Commie Fucks Club, let me say I am honored to be a target of Mr. Coester’s spittle-flecked outburst. (Disclosure: I’m just guessing about the spittle, but I think I’m on safe ground.)

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Russ Ingalls Is Launching… Something

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This Just In! From your friends at Vermont Daily Chronicle: State Sen. Russ Ingalls, a very conservative fellow from the Kingdom, is launching a… well, he calls it a party, but he insists it’s not a party at all. It’s just called a “party” to, you know, keep us all on our toes or summat.

This apparent contradiction forced the Republican-friendly Chronicle to post this quadruple backflip of clarification:


[Editor’s note: Previous VDC coverage, including an earlier edition of this new story, has included references to “a new party,” words Ingalls said he has not made in public or in private. He confirmed to VDC today that he is starting a platform, and that he never said he was starting a party. He did not say, when asked, if he plans for The Vermont Party to become a political party. As a result, for clarity’s sake, VDC has edited wording in this news story from ‘a new party’ to ‘The Vermont Party.’]

Gee, I dunno how the Chronicle learned of something called The Vermont Party and jumped to the conclusion that the venture was… a party. How presumptuous. How rude. How unfair to the good Senator.

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The Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Offers a Real Choice on Policy and Approach

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This is what I got when I asked Canva’s AI illustration generator to give me a picture of “donkeys debating,” in case you wondered whether AI is ready to manage human civilization on our behalf. (Behalves?)

Anyway, the subject for today’s sermon is the Democratic primary for governor, featuring two worthy but unconventional candidates: Economic policy analyst Amanda Janoo versus Aly Richards, best known as the former head of Let’s Grow Kids. One can only hope that the primary campaign will start attracting more than token attention, now that the legislative session is safely in the rear-view.

(Prime example of token attention: This WPTZ-TV whiz-banger from March 11 entitled “Vermont Gov. Phil Scott applauds Amanda Janoo for running for governor.” We’re so glad you approve, sir.)

If you’re of a mind to pay some attention, there’s no better place to begin than two recent editions of “802 News,” the podcast hosted by veteran journalist (a.k.a. Fellow Old Guy) Mark Johnson. He conducted in-depth interviews with both candidates, providing insight into the beliefs and personalities of the two contenders in a convenient two-part package. Listening to them gives you a clear picture of two candidates who promise very different approaches to the office.

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So, Anything Happen While I Was Out?

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Well, today’s confluence of events — the Legislature desperately careening toward adjournment on the day of the filing deadline for major-party candidates — was inevitably going to produce a flurry of political happenings. Most, frankly, were no surprise. The major exception: House Speaker Jill Krowinski’s decision to bow out of the Legislature. More on that below, but let’s shoot through the rest of the headlines.

Phil Scott runs for a sixth term. Not a surprise at all. He’s got to be enjoying life more now than during the Democrats’ supermajority years, and he’s still got to see himself as the only person who can forestall Democratic hegemony. But if he wins and serves out his next term, he will set the all-time record for longest serving Vermont governor — displacing Howard Dean, whose record for vetoes was shattered by Scott long ago. And Scott has already surpassed Dean on one electoral score: Dean only ran for governor five times, and this is Scott’s sixth gubernatorial campaign. He’s already entered new territory on that score.

The prediction markets are finally warming a bit to #vtpoli, and becoming more on point. Kalshi’s “Vermont Governor Winner?” proposition has “Republican Party” at 86% and “Democratic Party” at only 7%, which seems about right. Wednesday morning, those odds were 73% Republican and 27% Democratic. One thing changed in the last 36 hours, and that was Scott formally announcing his candidacy. Also seems about right.

Pieciak declines. In other unsurprising news, Treasurer Mike Pieciak pissed on the dying embers of gubernatorial speculation by officially filing for re-election. His decision not to seek the corner office, he said, was due to a difficult past year in his personal life including the loss of both parents and separation from his husband. But it’s a disappointment for Democratic wishcasters who saw him as their best hope for beating the governor. (Despite his decision, Pieciak remains the second favorite on Kalshi to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, far behind Aly Richards and a skosh ahead of Amanda Janoo.)

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It’s Gettin’ Late Early Out There

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While I was preparing (an overly grandiose term for my process, TBH) for the latest edition of the “Montpelier Happy Hour” podcast with Your Host Olga Peters*, something struck me that shouldn’t have been a surprise at all. Well, two things:

*Audio version available here.

  1. In a normal year, the Legislature would be steaming full-speed toward adjournment or would have already adjourned, but we seem to be nowhere near a conclusion.
  2. The filing deadline for major-party candidates in the August primary and November election is less than a month away.

If there was ever a year that could put a stake in the heart of Vermont’s beloved but fictional separation between legislating season and political season, well, 2026 is it. Last year, thanks mainly to Gov. Phil Scott’s bullheaded insistence on Act 73, the Legislature didn’t adjourn until mid-June. We seem to be headed toward a repeat performance this year, given the facts that (1) the House just passed H.931, its version of the Act 73 sequel, (2) the Senate has barely begun its process, (3) the Senate is likely to tear up the House bill and rewrite it from scratch, (4) the governor has already promised to veto the House version if it did somehow get through the Senate, and (5) ain’t nobody seems to have the slightest idea what kind of bill could survive the process while maybe not entirely triggering a revolt among the voting public.

Oh, and the governor is also threatening to lock the doors from the outside if he doesn’t get an amended version of Act 181 that’s to his liking. Also the budget, a not uncommon bone of contention between the branches. And he’s likely to veto another bill or six, just for shits and giggles.

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Bring Me the Head of Sarah Fair George

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Well, they’re at it again. They’re going after Chittenden County State’s Attorney Sarah Fair George, who will face a contested Democratic primary for the second straight campaign.

Or should I say, in the words of the Vermont Daily Chronicle, “controversial, George Soros-backed incumbent” Sarah Fair George? So Guy, can you cite any specific support from Soros, or could you simply not resist tootling one of your favorite dog whistles?

Sorry, digression is my jam. Last time around, in 2022, the “Get Sarah” forces did a faceplant, as George beat well-funded challenger ($62,000 for a county-level primary????) Ted Kenney by almost a two-to-one margin. This time, former Burlington city councilor Bram Kranichfeld is stepping into the hypothetical breach. He brings a softer edge to the tough-on-crime message that didn’t work for Kenney, but the fundamental thesis is the same: George’s progressive policies are to blame for the perception of rising lawlessness in the Queen City.

I fully expect Kranichfeld will receive generous support from the Barons of Burlington, and will benefit from every breathless bit of crime coverage between now and primary day. Will it make any difference? I expect not, to be honest.

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A Competitive Gubernatorial Primary? Hell, Yeah

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As expected, Aly Richards has declared her candidacy for governor, becoming the second person willing to take on S.S. Phil Scott, the Nimitz class aircraft carrier of #vtpoli. And I am all for it.

Richards is the former head of Let’s Grow Kids, the organization that led the charge for improved child care. She’s currently chair of the University of Vermont Medical Center board, which puts her in kind of an interesting (uncomfortable?) position when it comes to the hot-button health care affordability issue. I mean, considering that UVMMC is widely seen as The Big Bad of Vermont’s cost crisis.

The first to enter the race was Amanda Janoo, an economic policy expert with the Wellbeing Economy Alliance. Each brings a unique and intriguing skill set to the race. I’m not here to compare their resumés or agendas; I just want to cheer the simple fact that two very talented people actually want the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in the same year, a blessing we haven’t enjoyed since 2016.

Conventional wisdom would say a competitive Democratic primary is a resource drain, putting the winner at an even greater disadvantage against a popular incumbent who hasn’t been beaten in literally forever. He’s been in politics since 2000 — amazing for a self-professed non-politician, right? — and his next election defeat will be his first.

But I say, to hell with conventional wisdom. Bring on the primary!

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