Category Archives: 2026 election

A Rising Tide Floats Phil’s Boat

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Gov. Phil Scott’s whingeing about VPIRG attack ads seems even more petty now that the Republican Governors Association has dumped another $550,000 into its local outlet, A Stronger Vermont. For those keeping score, the RGA has now dedicated $950,000 to defending the man formerly known as the most popular governor in America. (ASV began the year with $70,000 in the bank, so its total resources now top the $1 million mark.) If you want a measure of his decline, there it is: In a year when the RGA faces an anti-Trump wave across the country, they’re investing big money into the guy who seemed unbeatable as recently as last spring.

Or to put it more precisely, they’re investing big money on attack ads aimed at undercutting Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. A few months ago she didn’t even seem like a threat to win her party’s nomination, let alone have a chance to defeat the man who’s won more elections than any other Vermont politician in the 21st Century. (Scott’s record is 13-0 since he entered politics in 2000. His next defeat will be his first.)

A Stronger Vermont disclosed the $550,000 from RGA in a brand-new mass media filing that reports expenditures totaling $252,046.70 on TV ads ($140K), online ads ($72K) and the dreaded consultancy fees for out-of-state political shop Flexpoint Media ($38K).

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They’re Pushing All Their Money Out the Door (Updated)

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Well, it just got late early out there.

For one thing, city and town clerk’s offices are being flooded by early ballots. For another, candidates in our most competitive races are spending whatever money they have on hand.

Ballot returns seem to have shot up in the last week or so. The latest tally: as of today (October 21), Vermont voters have submitted 79,651 ballots. Judging by past turnouts in non-presidential years, it’s likely that close to 30% of all votes have already been cast*.

*Update: The day after I posted this piece, the Secretary of State’s office announced that returned ballots now number “over 88,000,” which is close to one-third of likely total turnout.

(Explainer: Turnout is always higher in presidential years. Over the last two decades, turnout in presidential years has averaged 339,000 in Vermont. When the presidency isn’t on the line, average turnout has been 253,000. But in recent years, turnout has been higher still; in 2022 it was 291,955. Generally speaking, voter participation has jumped since the Covid pandemic and the state started mailing ballots to every registered voter. I think it’s safe to assume our turnout will be less than 300,000 but not much less. Which would make 79,651 about 28% or so of the projected total.)

Candidates are aware that time’s running out. The mass media spending reports are pouring into the Secretary of State’s office, the vast majority from legislative candidates sending postcards and such. The races at the top of the ticket show what happens when those candidates don’t ahve a lot of money to burn.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo has continued to boost her spending, which remains very modest by normal standards. Her campaign has submitted two mass media reports in the last two days, totaling $95,516 in spending. That includes $65,000 in television advertising, $20,516 for good old-fashioned radio, and $10,000 for newfangled digital. That’s on top of $100,000 in media spends reported in her October 15 campaign finance report, $60,000 for TV and $40,000 for digital.

In all, it’s an impressive investment, but she still has room to do more. As of October 15, Janoo had a little more than $300,000 in the bank. I’d expect to see more filings from Team Janoo in the very near future.

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The Dirtiest Campaign in Vermont Is Run by a Democrat. Who’s Working for a Republican. Who’s Allegedly Devoted to Bipartisanship. (Updated with Another Endorsement)

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If the Soviet Union was, in the words of WInston Churchill, “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” then the re-election campaign of Lt. Gov. John Rodgers is a contradiction wrapped in a paradox inside an irony.

Two things. First, he claims to be “a voice for the working class,” but as previously noted, the vast majority of his money comes from the upper class — primarily from the Burlington area, far from the lives and concerns of the rural Vermonters he claims to represent.

Second, the former Democrat turned Republican leans heavily on bipartisanship, touting his ability to work with all parties. And yet since the August primary, his campaign has focused its energy on attacking his opponent, former lieutenant governor Molly Gray.

And the person who must be held responsible for this turn to the Dark Side is none other than Democratic State Rep. Matt Birong, who feels no apparent qualms about sticking it to a fellow Democrat on the reg.

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The Political Money is Kind of Underwhelming

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Another campaign finance deadline has come and gone, and the big news is… there’s not much news. Well, not much new news, anyway. For the top two statewide races, the latest reports follow familiar patterns.

In the gubernatorial campaign, Democrat Amanda Janoo continues to hold a financial edge over Gov. Phil Scott, whose minimal-effort approach either indicates that (1) he’s very confident or (2) he’s lost his fastball after several easy victories. When you look at his fundraising numbers, you realize the last time he really had to work at it was 10 years ago, in 2016.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Molly Gray holds a substantial lead over incumbent Republican John Rodgers, whose campaign would be scraping bottom if not for big checks from a handful of donors and a $20,000 infusion from the state GOP. You know, Rodgers’ campaign signs tout him as “a voice of the working class,” but working Vermonters seem unappreciative. The vast majority of Rodgers’ money has come from Vermont’s upper class, and most of them hail from Chittenden County. Some kind of disconnect there.

The other four statewide races are uncompetitive, as the Republicans put up unknown and severely underfunded candidates against well-known Democrats.

The most recent filing deadline was Thursday, October 15. Reports covered the period between October 1 and October 15. So let’s get to the numbers.

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The RGA Doubles Up — CORRECTED

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Update: Turns out I got this wrong. The RGA’s total contribution to A Stronger Vermont is $400,000 not $800,000. I will explain two paragraphs below.

The Republican Governors Association continues to pour money into Vermont. Today the RGA’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, reported spending another $252,826.90 on TV and digital advertising in support of Gov. Phil Scott and against Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. (Mass media expenditures must be reported to the state within 24 hours when an election is 45 or fewer days away.) That’s on top of previously reported spending of $174,562, for a grand total of $427,388.90 — all of it deployed in the last five days.

If you’ve been paying close attention, you might recall that the RGA devoted $400,000 to help ASV defend Scott against his toughest electoral challenge in a decade, and that ASV has now overshot that total. Well, never fear, because the RGA has reported giving ASV another $400,000. I think we can expect that money to be spent quickly, with more likely on the way.

CORRECTION. In recent days A Stronger Vermont submitted two mass media spending reports. Each reported a $400,000 contribution from the RGA. But A Stronger Vermont’s latest campaign finance filing reports only a single $400,000 gift from the RGA. It’s likely that more money will flow because ASV has spent a total of $463,000 and the RGA is its sole benefactor. I’m leaving the post here, but my inferences and conclusions were incorrect.

A Stronger Vermont has now spent more this year than in any campaign since 2018. It spent a total of $218,717.40 in 2020 to help defeat David Zuckerman. If ASV spends its entire $800,000 in RGA funds and goes anywhere beyond that, it will eclipse the $826,365.84 spent in 2018 against Christine Hallquist.

This is remarkable stuff, given that Janoo is at a substantial disadvantage in name recognition and has never before sought public office. In a year when Republicans are fighting desperately to stave off a national Democratic wave, they are committing more and more money to defend the guy who used to be, not that long ago, America’s most popular governor. And some thought this was going to be a sleepy election season.

The RGA Launches a Surprisingly Subtle Janoo Attack Ad

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The Republican Governors Association’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, has begun airing its anti-Amanda Janoo attack ads. And I have to admit, they’re subtler and more smartly targeted than I expected. There’s none of the heavy-handed “She’s a communist” stuff or the “weirdly darkened images of Janoo,” that I predicted.

Instead, Janoo is presented as unknown and inexperienced while Gov. Phil Scott is the bipartisan Nice Guy of popular imagination. Janoo is depicted making wide-eyed, slightly out-of-control facial expressions, but the skin tone appears unretouched. I’ve seen the ads at least four times but can’t find them online, so I can’t top this piece with a gurning-Janoo screenshot. Instead, I present the closest available alternative: my favorite picture of the governor with a fake grin on his face. Imagine Janoo making a similar expression and you’ve pretty much got it.

Just to catch up on the numbers, the RGA has dumped $400,000 into A Stronger Vermont. ASV had previously reported spending $160,869 on TV and digital ads; over the weekend, it reported another $13,693 in expenditures attacking Janoo and touting Scott. That’s a total of $174,562 with another $225K awaiting deployment. (Other news from mass media filings: Democratic lite-guv candidate Molly Gray has spent $57,051 on a TV ad blitz.)

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Bernie Comes In from the Cold

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Well, it finally happened. Sen. Bernie Sanders has endorsed Amanda Janoo for governor. He posted an announcement video yesterday, and sent an email blast touting the endorsement this morning to his vaunted mailing list.

Finally, says I. Better late than never.

I still don’t know what took so damn long, but this is not a moment to be churlish. Or at least not a moment to dwell on the churlishness even if it can’t be entirely ignored.

In his slightly under three-minute endorsement video, he offers a hint about why he held off so long:

I personally like Phil Scott, and have worked with the governor on a number of issues over the years. But I believe it’s time for a change, time for new leadership, time for a kind of energy and bold ideas that we’re not seeing in Montpelier right now.

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Announcing: The Stupidest Debate Schedule Ever

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Yesterday, the Phil Scott campaign issued a press release proudly announcing a series of three debates with Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. Good on him, I guess, for showing up three times — although he turned down at least two others, including the traditional opener at the Tunbridge Fair.

But the debates will be crammed into a single week, and the first won’t happen until October 21 — less than two weeks before Election Day.

By then, early voting will have been in progress for more than a month. And more than two months will have passed since Primary Day. Why such a long delay?

Here’s the lineup, including the ludicrous scheduling of debates on consecutive days:

  • Wednesday, October 21, broadcast on radio and television by Vermont Public
  • Thursday, October 22, broadcast on WPTZ-TV
  • Wednesday, October 28, broadcast on WCAX-TV

It’s a gross disservice to the voters, especially to those most likely to vote early: people with demanding work schedules and/or families with children, people with disabilities or suppressed immune systems, the elderly, and people of color who might fear the threat of ICE enforcement at polling places. Many of them will cast their votes without the opportunity of seeing the two major candidates exchanging views in open debate.

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Janoo Catches Up with Scott in the Money Race

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The latest round of campaign finance reports reveal that the race for governor is very real and very competitive. It’s more evidence to support those recent opinion polls showing Gov. Phil Scott and Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo are in a tight race.

What’s truly remarkable is that Janoo is now in a virtual tie with Scott in cash on hand. Reminder that she began September at a huge disadvantage: Scott $307,000, Janoo $59,000. Now Scott is reduced to a statistically meaningless edge: $296,000 to $280,000.

Janoo outraised Scott in September, $291,000 to $223,000. She also spent far less, $70,000 to Scott’s $234,000. (As previously reported in this space, Scott spent heavily on TV and digital ads in September, with five ad buys totaling more than $150,000.)

Those figures are pocket change by normal gubernatorial standards. But they mean that Scott can’t simply spend Janoo into oblivion. Even if he turns on the fundraising afterburners, time’s running short to spend effectively — and early voting is already underway.

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Two More Notes on THE NUMBERS

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I spent several hours yesterday poring over the two new opinion polls about the top contests in Vermont. So of course I missed something very interesting, which was pointed out to me by my Hardwick Gazette colleague Paul Fixx. I’ll relate that tidbit, along with a harbinger of sudden activity by Vermont Democrats in apparent response to the polls.

The tidbit, or maybe that’s underselling it: Phil Scott is less popular among Vermont Republicans than Donald Trump. According to the Vermont Public survey, 69% of Republican voters approve of Trump’s job performance and 15% disapprove. The same figures for Scott: 58% approve, 20% disapprove.

Huh. Maybe campaign manager Dustin Degree should stop complaining about the UNH Survey Center oversampling Democrats. He’s got problems with his own people. (The UNH survey didn’t ask respondents for their view of Trump’s performance. Its only Trump-related inquiry was about his tariff war with Canada. Democrats and independents overwhelmingly disapproved, while a solid majority of Republicans approved. Sheeple, I tell ya.)

The Republican antipathy for Scott has, until now, been a minor annoyance, more than made up for by his popularity among centrists and moderate Democrats. But when Scott’s favorability is at a low point, he kinda needs the Republican base in his corner. Now, those anti-Scott Republicans aren’t going to vote for Amanda Janoo, but what if they stay home or leave the governor’s line blank on their ballots? The Republicans already face a sizeable enthusiasm gap this year; ambivalence toward Scott isn’t going to help. But it’s a fact of life for a party whose center of gravity is clearly to the right of its leader.

Second thing. I got a long email today from state Rep. Emilie Kornheiser of Brattleboro. Not personally; I’m just on her mailing list. But the content was striking. It was a full-throated endorsement of Janoo that trumpeted the poll results:

I honestly can’t see my way through another two years of Phil Scott. I have done my darnedest, and done well, to negotiate with him and around him… but we really can’t go on like this. We need a government that is earnestly trying to do better – to meet the moment and all that is needed.

And somehow, through the miracle of all of you, it seems possible that we could do better! It’s actually happening….polling showing Amanda is pulling ahead of Phil Scott!

Kornheiser called on her supporters to GET INVOLVED in the gubernatorial race, all caps hers. She touted a statewide organizing meeting via Zoom that’s happening Wednesday evening. And she promoted not one, not two, but three separate Janoo events next week in Brattleboro. Janoo herself will hold a fundraiser on October 6 followed by one of her town hall meetings. And the next night, Treasurer Mike Pieciak will get stuck in, hosting a fundraiser on behalf of Janoo and LG candidate Molly Gray. All three will be in attendance.

It’s great to see top Democrats finally getting behind their literal standard-bearer. I just hope it isn’t too little, too late. If Scott wins a close race, the Democrats will only have themselves to blame for squandering a moment in history when Scott’s standing finally began to fade and an upstart candidate found a way to engage the grass roots.