Category Archives: 2026 election

It’s Gettin’ Late Early Out There

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While I was preparing (an overly grandiose term for my process, TBH) for the latest edition of the “Montpelier Happy Hour” podcast with Your Host Olga Peters*, something struck me that shouldn’t have been a surprise at all. Well, two things:

*Audio version available here.

  1. In a normal year, the Legislature would be steaming full-speed toward adjournment or would have already adjourned, but we seem to be nowhere near a conclusion.
  2. The filing deadline for major-party candidates in the August primary and November election is less than a month away.

If there was ever a year that could put a stake in the heart of Vermont’s beloved but fictional separation between legislating season and political season, well, 2026 is it. Last year, thanks mainly to Gov. Phil Scott’s bullheaded insistence on Act 73, the Legislature didn’t adjourn until mid-June. We seem to be headed toward a repeat performance this year, given the facts that (1) the House just passed H.931, its version of the Act 73 sequel, (2) the Senate has barely begun its process, (3) the Senate is likely to tear up the House bill and rewrite it from scratch, (4) the governor has already promised to veto the House version if it did somehow get through the Senate, and (5) ain’t nobody seems to have the slightest idea what kind of bill could survive the process while maybe not entirely triggering a revolt among the voting public.

Oh, and the governor is also threatening to lock the doors from the outside if he doesn’t get an amended version of Act 181 that’s to his liking. Also the budget, a not uncommon bone of contention between the branches. And he’s likely to veto another bill or six, just for shits and giggles.

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Bring Me the Head of Sarah Fair George

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Well, they’re at it again. They’re going after Chittenden County State’s Attorney Sarah Fair George, who will face a contested Democratic primary for the second straight campaign.

Or should I say, in the words of the Vermont Daily Chronicle, “controversial, George Soros-backed incumbent” Sarah Fair George? So Guy, can you cite any specific support from Soros, or could you simply not resist tootling one of your favorite dog whistles?

Sorry, digression is my jam. Last time around, in 2022, the “Get Sarah” forces did a faceplant, as George beat well-funded challenger ($62,000 for a county-level primary????) Ted Kenney by almost a two-to-one margin. This time, former Burlington city councilor Bram Kranichfeld is stepping into the hypothetical breach. He brings a softer edge to the tough-on-crime message that didn’t work for Kenney, but the fundamental thesis is the same: George’s progressive policies are to blame for the perception of rising lawlessness in the Queen City.

I fully expect Kranichfeld will receive generous support from the Barons of Burlington, and will benefit from every breathless bit of crime coverage between now and primary day. Will it make any difference? I expect not, to be honest.

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A Competitive Gubernatorial Primary? Hell, Yeah

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As expected, Aly Richards has declared her candidacy for governor, becoming the second person willing to take on S.S. Phil Scott, the Nimitz class aircraft carrier of #vtpoli. And I am all for it.

Richards is the former head of Let’s Grow Kids, the organization that led the charge for improved child care. She’s currently chair of the University of Vermont Medical Center board, which puts her in kind of an interesting (uncomfortable?) position when it comes to the hot-button health care affordability issue. I mean, considering that UVMMC is widely seen as The Big Bad of Vermont’s cost crisis.

The first to enter the race was Amanda Janoo, an economic policy expert with the Wellbeing Economy Alliance. Each brings a unique and intriguing skill set to the race. I’m not here to compare their resumés or agendas; I just want to cheer the simple fact that two very talented people actually want the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in the same year, a blessing we haven’t enjoyed since 2016.

Conventional wisdom would say a competitive Democratic primary is a resource drain, putting the winner at an even greater disadvantage against a popular incumbent who hasn’t been beaten in literally forever. He’s been in politics since 2000 — amazing for a self-professed non-politician, right? — and his next election defeat will be his first.

But I say, to hell with conventional wisdom. Bring on the primary!

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Signs of Strife in Democratic Circles

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I don’t know if there’s a fire, but there’s suddenly a hell of a lot of smoke around the Vermont Democratic Party. It’s not a great look at the beginning of a very important election season.

Within the last few days, some harsh criticism of party policies and leadership has come from four Democrats not known as troublemakers. Three are longtime Democrats who have held positions of responsibility in the party or in public office. The fourth is a respected figure in local politics whose bid for higher office had been strongly promoted by the party. The list in brief, followed by details:

  • One of the two leading Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor has accused the VDP of actively favoring the other top contender.
  • One of the Democrats’ best hopes for regaining a state Senate seat has cut short his campaign, citing “irreconcilable differences” with the party over fundraising and strategy.
  • A current Senate candidate has accused the party of violating the tradition of neutrality in primary contests and effectively selling its favor to chosen candidates.
  • A 2024 Senate hopeful says the VDP failed to deliver promised support to his candidacy through its much-touted “Coordinated Campaign.”

If one or two of these things had happened, you might chalk it off to sore losers or misunderstandings. But four, in a matter of days? That’s either a remarkable coincidence or a troubling pattern.

Now, let’s get to the particulars.

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Campaign Finance Deadline #1: The Money’s Going to Some Unexpected Places

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So March 15 was the first campaign finance deadline (in Vermont) of 2026, and the second won’t come until July 1, mere weeks before the August primary. Yesterday was a big day, in other words, and there were some clear winners in the field. And not necessarily the winners you’d want, if you were to distribute the available Democratic dollars to the top-priority contests.

Which are, to my eye: Running a credible race for governor, rebuilding the state Senate majority, and knocking Lt. Gov. John Rodgers off his perch. It will be no shock whatsoever to learn that the usual Democratic donors seem to be paying little attention to the gubernatorial, and a lot of cash is being funneled into primary contests for safe Democratic seats. The only race where priority and cash are equivalent is in the Democratic race for lieutenant governor.

One saving grace: Many of the top fundraising candidates were drawing, in part, from unique sources of support rather than draining the mainstream Democratic pool. Many of Nikhil Goyal’s many, many donors, for instance, wouldn’t have given to anyone else.

The race for biggest moneybags of March is a virtual tie between Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren, Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor. They each raised more than $150,000, which is awfully impressive. Lookin’ like a red-hot race there.

Biggest moneybags per capita: state Senate candidate Goyal, who raised the eye-popping sum of $86,193.

Much better than expected: Recently declared Democratic candidate for governor Amanda Janoo, who cleared the $80,000 mark. That’s a really strong start, but she still has a ton of work to do.

Highest burn rate: Treasurer Mike Pieciak, who somehow managed to spend close to $60,000 in the early stages of a race for re-election he’s all but certain to win. Much of that cash went to expensive out-of-state campaign operatives. It’s almost as if he’s laying the groundwork for a seemingly inevitable run for governor.

There are your toplines. For those as obsessed with campaign cash as This Observer, more details follow.

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Where No Democratic Officeholder Has Gone Before

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Meet Amanda Janoo, the first person to declare a Democratic candidacy for governor in 2026. She follows in the lineage of past challengers to Gov. Phil Scott in one very important — and unusual, if not unprecedented — way: No one who has been the Democratic gubernatorial nominee since Peter Shumlin’s last run in 2014, meaning no Phil Scott opponent ever, entered the race while holding elective office as a pure-D Democrat.

And that’s a massive, damning indictment of the Democratic establishment.

Let’s do the rundown.

  • 2016: Sue Minter, former state representative and member of Shumlin’s cabinet, the only Scott challenger who had ever held any elective office as a pure-D Democrat. She’d served three terms as a state representative from Waterbury, ending in 2011.
  • 2018: Christine Hallquist, CEO of the Vermont Electric Cooperative.
  • 2020: Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, who served as a Progressive/Democrat and got little to no support from the Democratic Party or its donor base.
  • 2022; Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive and advocate on housing and homelessness policy.
  • 2024: Esther Charlestin, co-chair of the Vermont Commission on Women. (She had served on the nonpartisan Middlebury select board.)

And now Amanda Janoo, who’s had a very impressive career completely outside the realm of partisan politics. She has stepped forward at a time when top-tier and second-tier and bottom-of-the-chili-pot Democrats are nowhere to be seen.

Again, a damning indictment of the party and its (cough) leaders.

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The Most Infuriating Fundraising Appeal I’ve Ever Received (and That’s Saying a Lot)

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Got an email today from your friend and mine, Treasurer Mike Pieciak, that just made me mad. The more I thought about it, the madder I got.

Pieciak, for those just joining us, has all but foresworn a run for governor in favor of an almost certain run for re-election. He won without breaking a sweat in 2022 and 2024, and will likely face another hopeless Republican this year. He had nearly $200,000 in his campaign account as of the last reporting deadline, July 2025.

And he’s actively fundraising.

Not only that, he’s fundraising with all the artificial urgency he can muster.

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The Elephant in the Room

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Dearie me. I seem to have triggered a bit of a firestorm in Vermont political circles with last week’s piece about Hank Poitras, the foul-mouthed videographer, podcaster, and (shamefully) chair of the Windham County Republican Committee. (I’d referred to him as chair of the Brattleboro party committee, per The Brattleboro Reformer, but apparently he’s a bigger fish than that.) Poitras is pictured here in one of his own videos, thrusting middle fingers skyward and shouting “Fuck all you liberal motherfuckers!” just like a good Phil Scott Republican. (I think that’s how the governor kicks off his weekly press conferences, but I could be mistaken.)

My post, which featured some of Poitras’ more loathsome on-the-record comments, caused consternation in VTGOP circles and prompted Vermont Public’s Peter Hirschfeld and Lola Duffort (wow, team effort) to produce a very good piece about The Artist Who Styles Himself As “Planet Hank.”

Poitras was scheduled to share a stage with VTGOP chair Paul Dame and Barre Republican Rep. Michael Boutin last Friday evening. After media inquiries, Boutin sought to remove Poitras from the program and then withdraw from the event before changing his mind following “prayer and counsel,” according to Boutin’s Facebook page, where you can watch his brief address to the smallish crowd.

It also seems to have scared Dame away from a personal appearance. He begged off at a very late stage, citing “unexpected family obligations,” and sent along a video message instead. Probably had to walk the dog or summat.

I have to tell you, this is one of the proudest moments of my decade-plus as a Vermont Political Observer.

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We Might Look Back on This as the Beginning of the End of Mike Pieciak’s Political Career

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First, a necessary caveat. Treasurer Mike Pieciak remains the betting favorite to become governor whenever Phil Scott decides to ride off into the sunset in his #14 race car. Pieciak is popular and well-connected in Democratic circles and is a proven fundraiser. He’d also be a fine choice, given his financial and managerial expertise; the next governor is going to inherit many challenges from our risk-averse incumbent. It’ll be kind of a “12 labors of Hercules” situation, and Pieciak has the necessary administrative muscle.

But you know, if we find ourselves in the year 2032 and Charity Clark or Molly Gray or Kesha Ram Hinsdale or Tanya Vyhovsky (or, if you prefer, John Rodgers or Scott Beck) is governor and Pieciak is nowhere to be seen, having pulled a TJ Donovan and abandoned politics in favor of a cushy corporate job, you might look back on today — Wednesday, February 11, 2026 — as the first step down that long sad trail.

I refer to the new issue of Seven Days, featuring Kevin McCallum’s fine writeup of the Democrats’ failure, so far, to identify even a single candidate for governor. It raises the single biggest question in Democratic politics: “Why isn’t Mike Pieciak running?” and provides some unflattering answers.

In politics, you can go from “The Next Big Thing” to “Who Dat?” in the blink of an eye. And while it’s way too early to be writing political obituaries, you’re starting to see a few brown spots on the Pieciak banana.

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So… Molly Gray Is the… Outsider?

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The most interesting race in the August primary is the Democratic contest for lieutenant governor. Three candidates have already filed: former LG Molly Gray, Democratic operative and Peter Welch staffer Ryan McLaren, and Esther Charlestin, 2024’s sacrificial la — ahem, Democratic candidate for governor. Charlestin, with all due respect, we can dismiss with gratitude for her willingness to serve. This is a race of two well-connected Dems, Gray and McLaren.

Gray was first out of the gate with a truly impressive haul of endorsements including 38 sitting lawmakers and a bunch of high-profile formers like Howard Dean and Kitty Toll.

This week, McLaren formally launched his bid at an Essex restaurant featuring what his campaign called “a packed venue” including “enthusiastic supporters, community leaders, and organizers from across Vermont.” The campaign’s press release boasted its own truly impressive endorser list: former treasurer Beth Pearce, former secretary of state Jim Condos, former LG David Zuckerman*, former House speakers Mitzi Johnson and Shap Smith, and an undisclosed “dozens of current and former members of the Vermont Legislature.” (The release also claimed endorsements from “hundreds of other community leaders,” but McLaren’s campaign website does not offer a list of endorsers.)

*Which ought to end the persistent speculation that Zuckerman will run for something in 2026. I honestly don’t think he will. He’s certainly not making another bid for Vermont’s own bucket of warm piss.

A couple of notes on the press release before I go on. One of those addressing the crowd was Kathryn Becker Van Haste, described as a “veteran Congressional aide and Senate campaign manager,” pointedly not described as a longtime aide to Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. Seems an odd omission considering Bernie’s popularity, but maybe hee didn’t want his name brandished at a Democratic event.

Then there was this unintentional laugh line from Van Haste: “We need someone who doesn’t just want the title, but wants to do the work.” Uh, well, about that. The office of lieutenant governor, with all due respect, is pretty much all title and no work. The LG presides over the state Senate, but can only have an impact on “the work” beyond gavel-banging if allowed to do so by Senate leadership.

But I digress. (Always play to your strengths.)

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