I Hope the Democrats Have Money Left After the Primary

The good news, if you favor the Democrats, is that many of their candidates have been able to raise impressive amounts of money in advance of next week’s primary.

The bad news: They’ve spent a lot of their cash in ways that are only tangentially related to advancing the cause in November. Here’s hoping there’s more money where all of that came from.

I mean, look: The two top Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor, Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren, have raised a combined total of close to $750,000. That should be more than enough to fuel an entire campaign for the ol’ bucket of warm piss, but Gray and Mclaren are going to spend most of it by next Tuesday. Gray’s reported spending totaled $248,000 as of August 1, while McLaren had spent $293,000 by then — plus another $52,000 on TV ads reported separately after he’d filed his 8/1 report. Add it all up, that’s $593,000 spent, invested, squandered, take your pick, on the Democratic nomination for an essentially ceremonial office.

The two gubernatorial candidates, meanwhile, have raised $742,000 and spent $632,000. (Amanda Janoo: raised $303,000 and spent $255,000; Aly Richards raised $439,000 and spent $347,000.) The winner will have exceeded expectations for fundraising, but August 12 will find her back at the bottom of the mountain having to push the giant boulder up to the top. As of August 1, Richards had $92,000 in the bank but has spent another $30,000 on TV ads since then, which drops her account balance down to $62,000. Janoo had $46,000 in the bank on August 1 and has since spent $2,000 more on Facebook ads, so her known balance is at $44,000.

Gov. Phil Scott, meanwhile, has been coasting along. He entered the campaign with $240,000 left over from 2024. He’s spent virtually nothing and raised a modest amount, bringing his bank balance up to $309,000. In other words, the Democratic winner will have to do some heavy lifting just to catch up with the governor. And if he feels threatened at all, he’ll kick it in high gear and his base will respond. Two years ago Howard Dean estimated that a challenge to Scott would cost a minimum of $2 million; that seems like a reasonable amount. The Democratic nominee will have less than three months to build a warchest and mount a statewide challenge against a popular governor. Calling it “a tall order” seems like an understatement.

And with close to $1.5 million already hoovered out of donors’ wallets by Gray, McLaren, Janoo and Richards — and the Democrats in a high-stakes national battle for control of Congress — one has to wonder how much money is left for the gubernatorial primary winner to harvest. If the governor has slipped in public standing, as recent UNH polls suggest, the Dems may well regret a missed opportunity to knock off the big guy.

But hey, if Phil Scott wins and the Dems take back the lieutenant governorship, it’ll have been worthwhile, eh?

Same chorus, lower key in the state Senate. Democratic candidates in safe Democratic districts have raised boatloads of money for primary contests when the party’s priority should be winning back seats lost in 2024. Some of the most promising opportunities are falling short in the money race, while plenty is being consumed in primaries that won’t meaningfully advance the Democratic agenda.

Now, I realize that you can’t control which people run, where they run, and how much they raise. But maybe donors should be thinking more strategically about where they invest their political dollars. Like, say, the Barons of Burlington on the Republican side; they spent big on targeted races in 2024, and they’re spending heavily this year in defense of the Republican caucus in the state Senate. They have a game plan, at least. The Dems? Not so much.

In the Chittenden Southeast district, the three incumbent Democrats (Thomas Chittenden, Ginny Lyons, Kesha Ram Hinsdale) are running as a ticket and two others (Joanna Grossman, Elizabeth Ann Hunt) are challenging them. The five candidates have raised just shy of $95,000, including $58,000 by the two non-incumbents. Given the history of sitting senators in primary battles, it’d be a real surprise if either of the challengers managed to win a nomination.

In Chittenden Central, incumbent Phil Baruth is not seeking another term. Incumbents Martine Larocque Gulick and Tanya Vyhovsky are in a four-way Democratic primary for three nominations along with Nikhil Goyal and Elaine Haney. The four’s combined fundraising total: an astonishing $243,000, led by Goyal’s unworldly $144,000 and Haney’s $60,000. History suggests that only one of those two is going to win a spot on the November ballot.

In Windsor, the retirement of Alison Clarkson has triggered a five-way dogpile for three Democratic nominations. The two remaining incumbents, Becca White and Joe Major, have the inside track, but the other three are in a furious race for (in all likelihood) a single spot on the November ballot. The three newcomers have raised a combined $105,000, headlined by Ben Brickner’s $69,000.

Meanwhile, in the purple Chittenden North district, Democrat and former senator Irene Wrenner faces Republican Rep. Ashley Bartley for a seat that turned Republican in 2024. (With an assist from the galaxy brains who managed to create a swing district in deep blue Chittenden County, ugh.) Wrenner, who’s won in the district before, has managed to raise only $12,000 so far — about half of Bartley’s total. If your goal is to rebuild the majority caucus, perhaps even regain a veto-proof majority, this is one of the races where Democratic dollars ought to be invested.

Similar story in other districts where the Dems could regain ground. In Grand Isle, formerly the domain of nominal Democrat Dick Mazza, first-term Republican Patrick Brennan faces Democrat Kim Gleason. Brennan, thanks to substantial help from the Barons, has raised $40,000 so far, while Gleason has raised only $13,000. Do the Dems want to take back the seat? If so, their donors are not playing along.

Down in the Orange district, likely Democratic winner Rep. Monique Priestley has raised $33,000 but spent at least $9,000 in fending off a primary challenge from the underfunded Rose Lucenti. Assuming Priestley wins on Tuesday, she will face Sen. John Benson, who’s got $34,000 in cash on hand thanks to an influx of four-figure donations from the Barons and their friends and can likely expect a lot more.

The only place where the Dems’ strategic priorities are aligned with donor preferences is in the Addison district, where first-time candidate Hannah Sessions has raised an impressive $61,000. Assuming incumbent Dem Ruth Hardy will win in November, Sessions will be trying to knock off first-term Republican Steven Heffernan, who’s also getting strong backing from the Barons. At least Sessions won’t be outspent, unlike Wrenner, Gleason, and Priestley.

Speaking of internecine spendthriftery, let’s stop off at the primary for Chittenden County State’s Attorney, where incumbent Sarah Fair George has raised $43,000 and challenger Bram Kranichfeld has raised a stunning $148,000. That’s close to $200,000 being spent on a summer-theatre remake of “Moby Dick” featuring George as the great white whale and mainstream Dems as Captain Ahab.

(It must be noted that some of Kranichfeld’s warchest comes from the Barons and their friends, who would not have supported any other Democratic causes.)

All in all, it’s a massive concentration of money where it will do the Democrats little good. That is, if the Democratic project is to build their ability to implement their priorities. And again, I don’t mean to throw shade on anyone who’s running for office and has made themselves attractive to donors. But, as the headline says, I sure hope the Democratic money doesn’t run short after the primary.

I will say, I’d much rather face the Democrats’ problem of misplaced generosity than the Republicans’ dearth of funds and credible candidates:

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