Two More Notes on THE NUMBERS

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I spent several hours yesterday poring over the two new opinion polls about the top contests in Vermont. So of course I missed something very interesting, which was pointed out to me by my Hardwick Gazette colleague Paul Fixx. I’ll relate that tidbit, along with a harbinger of sudden activity by Vermont Democrats in apparent response to the polls.

The tidbit, or maybe that’s underselling it: Phil Scott is less popular among Vermont Republicans than Donald Trump. According to the Vermont Public survey, 69% of Republican voters approve of Trump’s job performance and 15% disapprove. The same figures for Scott: 58% approve, 20% disapprove.

Huh. Maybe campaign manager Dustin Degree should stop complaining about the UNH Survey Center oversampling Democrats. He’s got problems with his own people. (The UNH survey didn’t ask respondents for their view of Trump’s performance. Its only Trump-related inquiry was about his tariff war with Canada. Democrats and independents overwhelmingly disapproved, while a solid majority of Republicans approved. Sheeple, I tell ya.)

The Republican antipathy for Scott has, until now, been a minor annoyance, more than made up for by his popularity among centrists and moderate Democrats. But when Scott’s favorability is at a low point, he kinda needs the Republican base in his corner. Now, those anti-Scott Republicans aren’t going to vote for Amanda Janoo, but what if they stay home or leave the governor’s line blank on their ballots? The Republicans already face a sizeable enthusiasm gap this year; ambivalence toward Scott isn’t going to help. But it’s a fact of life for a party whose center of gravity is clearly to the right of its leader.

Second thing. I got a long email today from state Rep. Emilie Kornheiser of Brattleboro. Not personally; I’m just on her mailing list. But the content was striking. It was a full-throated endorsement of Janoo that trumpeted the poll results:

I honestly can’t see my way through another two years of Phil Scott. I have done my darnedest, and done well, to negotiate with him and around him… but we really can’t go on like this. We need a government that is earnestly trying to do better – to meet the moment and all that is needed.

And somehow, through the miracle of all of you, it seems possible that we could do better! It’s actually happening….polling showing Amanda is pulling ahead of Phil Scott!

Kornheiser called on her supporters to GET INVOLVED in the gubernatorial race, all caps hers. She touted a statewide organizing meeting via Zoom that’s happening Wednesday evening. And she promoted not one, not two, but three separate Janoo events next week in Brattleboro. Janoo herself will hold a fundraiser on October 6 followed by one of her town hall meetings. And the next night, Treasurer Mike Pieciak will get stuck in, hosting a fundraiser on behalf of Janoo and LG candidate Molly Gray. All three will be in attendance.

It’s great to see top Democrats finally getting behind their literal standard-bearer. I just hope it isn’t too little, too late. If Scott wins a close race, the Democrats will only have themselves to blame for squandering a moment in history when Scott’s standing finally began to fade and an upstart candidate found a way to engage the grass roots.

The Numbers The Numbers ALL THE NUMBERS

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When a poll came out last week showing Amanda Janoo leading Gov. Phil Scott, it wasn’t well received by Team Scott. Campaign manager Dustin Degree called the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Green Mountain State Poll an “outlier,” which is factually incorrect on its face. It can’t be an “outlier” because there were no other polls to compare it to.

But I can understand the reaction. You thought you had it in the bag, and here comes an inconvenient poll poking holes in your Shield of Invulnerability.

Well, now we have a second survey, and what I can tell you is that each of them outlies the other. The new poll commissioned by Vermont Public is more favorable to Republicans across the board than the UNH survey. In the gubernatorial race, it puts Scott 10 points ahead of Janoo while UNH gives Janoo a six-point lead.

In the campaign for lieutenant governor, UNH has Democrat Molly Gray holding a decisive 19-point edge over incumbent John Rodgers while VP reports Gray with a lead of eight points. And there’s a huge divergence in the campaign for Vermont’s single seat in the U.S. House: Instead of incumbent Becca Balint’s 66-30 edge in the UNH poll, the Vermont Public survey gives Balint only a 15-point lead with, again, enough undecideds to turn the race around.

Those are big enough swings to cast doubt over the entire enterprise. I mean, each poll claims a margin of error under 3.5 points, but the differences between the two are waaaaaay bigger than that.

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Politics As Unusual

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I spent my Sunday evening at the Old Labor Hall in Barre, where Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo appeared before a full house and held a campaign event that was unprecedented in my experience. Indeed, to call it “a campaign event” is to distort its message and purpose.

Well, I mean, it was an event held by a candidate during a political campaign, so anything a candidate does in public is part of the campaign, right?

But this one was fundamentally different. It wasn’t a rally. There were no applause lines, none of the delivery tricks designed to get people hootin’ and hollerin’. Janoo kept her tone conversational, as if her purpose was not to promote herself but to conduct an exchange of ideas.

One metric: The event began at 5:00 p.m. She didn’t mention her platform or policy ideas until 5:50. And throughout the event, she spent much more time interacting with the audience than promoting herself or attacking her opponent.

It was a full house at the Old Labor Hall, about 150 people by my estimate. (They’d originally set up 80-90 seats, but more chairs were rolled out as the crowd grew.) Not at all bad for a candidate who can’t afford to buy advertising and hasn’t gotten very much earned media coverage. There was plenty of enthusiasm, a buzz in the crowd if you will, and Janoo got a sustained standing ovation at the end of the night. It did underscore the notion that something is happening here, that the recent poll showing Janoo in the lead might reflect the developing reality of an expectation-shattering election.

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I Just Felt the Earth Move Under My Feet

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When was the last time we had an honest-to-God “Holy Shit” moment in the bland, predictable world of Vermont politics? I’m thinking it was 2014, when Scott Milne nearly defeated incumbent governor Peter Shumlin.

Well, we’ve got another one on our hands. Feast your eyes on the latest work from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center (full results downloadable here), which shows Democrat Amanda Janoo with a six-point lead over “unbeatable” Gov. Phil Scott, 49% to 43%. (The Survey Center labels the race a “statistical tie” because Janoo’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error.)

That’s right. No typo, no mistake. Janoo, who began this year a political unknown, seems to have the edge over our five-term governor.

Wow.

And before you cast doubt on the Survey Center’s reliability, three things. First, it’s been consistently right in Vermont this year. It foreshadowed Janoo’s win over fellow Democrat Aly Richards, Molly Gray’s mollywhopping of Ryan McLaren in the race for lieutenant governor, and Gerald Malloy’s trouncing of Mark Coester in the Republican Congressional primary.

Second, its methodology seems solid. This wasn’t one of your old-fashioned telephone surveys, which have become increasingly trouble-prone. Instead, UNHSC assembled a 2,700-person “probability-based web panel” used throughout this election year. About 40% of panel members responded to this poll. Data were weighted in a number of categories, including participation in the 2024 election. I’m not a statistician, but it looks reasonable to me.

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So This Is What a Real Campaign Looks Like

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We made a quick trip to Michigan last weekend and were suddenly immersed in American politics, post-Citizens United style. Our main exposure came in the form of campaign ads on bar and restaurant TV screens with the sound muted.

Lots and lots and LOTS of campaign ads. Every commercial break contained at least two political commercials about Michigan’s races for governor and U.S. Senate. The screenshot above is from a conservative attack ad against Democratic senatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed. These ads blow ALL the dog whistles about El-Sayed’s ethnicity. One ad tries hard to tie him to progressive influencer and Fellow Brown Person Hasan Piker, who’s become the conservative movement’s bête noire in 2026.

It’s exhausting, even with no sound to go with the images. (The only TV we watched with sound was PBS’ Masterpiece Theatre, shout out Marble Hall Murders.) And Michigan voters will have to endure another five and a half weeks of this saturation bombardment. It’ll only get worse as the election draws closer, and even worse than that if the polls continue to show El-Sayed leading the very bland Republican candidate Mike Rogers. The conservatives are getting desperate.

But hey, this isn’t a blog about Michigan politics, so let’s get to the point. Which is, I’d forgotten what it’s like to be immersed in a high-profile election campaign. For the most part, it makes you want to bathe in Purell for a day or six. But there is one undeniable advantage to the nonstop barrage of political advertising: It reminds everyone that there is, in fact, an election with real consequences. Which is not the message you get from Vermont media.

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Hey, Bernie! Can You Spare a Moment for Amanda Janoo or Nah?

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Recently I wrote a post criticizing Democratic Party bigwigs’ underwhelming support for their gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo. During the month of August, not a single Democratic officeholder donated to the badly underfunded Janoo campaign. (A few did donate to her campaign before August 1.) This is looking like a missed opportunity given recent signs of slippage in Gov. Phil Scott’s favorability numbers and the very real signs of life in Janoo’s organization. (She’s holding dozens of canvasses and honk-and-waves in coming weeks, which must mean she’s generating grassroots energy and attracting a lot of volunteers.)

But now it’s time to throw the same shade at Vermont’s very elder statesman, Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. To his credit, he continues to work hard and travel his buns off in support of progressive-minded candidates across the country. Ballotpedia keeps a running tab of his endorsements — defined as “official statements, appearances at campaign rallies, and direct participation in campaign ads and materials.” It’s a very long list. In 2026 alone, Sanders has acted in support of 83 candidates across the country. That’s roughly one candidate every three days.

Amanda Janoo does not appear on the list. Nor do I recall Sanders issuing a statement about Janoo or appearing at one of her campaign events or, most valuable currency of all, sending an email to his vaunted contact list seeking donations for Janoo’s cash-starved campaign.

Janoo is a candidate straight out of Bernie Central Casting. She’s a creative, original thinker with a strong progressive streak. Her platform is a close match for Bernie’s. So why no love for the hometown candidate?

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So Are We Getting Any Debates or Nah?

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For many years, the beginning of every Vermont campaign’s homestretch has been marked by a gubernatorial debate at the Tunbridge Fair, broadcast by WDEV Radio. It’s the customary first leg in a series of campaign forums.

Until now. The Fair is this weekend, and the debate was scheduled for Thursday morning. But on Wednesday afternoon, former lieutenant governor and WDEV host David Zuckerman issued a statement touting the event as best he could, but ending with this little wet fart:

Sad. Ken Squier is likely rolling in his grave.

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In Which the High and Mighty Look Down from the Clouds and Determine the Fate of Our Most Vulnerable

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Love the online access for legislative hearings where the audio quality is poor and the view so expansive that you can’t tell who’s talking. It’s even worse when a powerpoint presentation occupies 90% of the screen and all the little people are confined to a small corner.

But the optics seem appropriate when the subject is Vermont’s troubled emergency housing program, taken up briefly today by the Legislature’s Joint Fiscal Committee. (It was one item on a packed agenda, with a mere 30 minutes allocated for multiple witnesses.) There’s something ironically apropos about those remote figures in an ornate room discussing the state’s failure to provide adequate shelter for our neediest Vermonters.

But enough philosophizing. The subject at hand was how the Scott administration is implementing Act 143, the Legislature’s attempt to create a better emergency housing system. In the eyes of advocacy groups, the administration has taken a heavy-handed approach and fast-tracked a new system without much input from outside the boundaries of its own sphincter.

This process has triggered an impassioned response from advocacy groups and helping agencies, up to and potentially including legal action for what they see as the administration’s deliberate flouting of Act 143’s intent. A small next step took place today before JFC, with more hearings to come in the near future. (The Legislative Committee on Administrative Rules is expected to take up the new process on October 1, and there will be a joint hearing of he House Human Service and Senate Health & Welfare Committees on October 9.) Nothing was settled today, but the lines are drawn a bit more clearly now.

Not that that will help anyone caught in the chaos — planned or otherwise — of a situation that seems to have been easily avoidable except that the Scott administration has rarely acted in good faith when it comes to sheltering the homeless. The constant preoccupation is with cost and with making recipients prove they are worthy, instead of meeting a simple basic human need. Or, to put it another way, doing the right thing.

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What If They Held an Election and Nobody Covered It?

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I would not be so bold as to say that our news media are in the tank for Gov. Phil Scott. But their sadly reduced capacity has redounded to the governor’s benefit, over and over again. No one has the bandwidth and/or interest in covering state politics anymore. As a result, recent events that might be harmful to Scott’s popularity have gone completely unreported or, at best, substantially underreported.

Example #1: The legislative hearing that revealed the disastrous state of the administration’s biggest IT project, which includes the budget, human resources, and finance and accounting — a project that touches on everybody in state government and every dollar it spends. This project is so badly off the rails that no one can say how long it will take to fix, how much more it will cost, or even if it will ever come to fruition. That’s not coming from critics, but from top administration officials themselves. I cannot explain why this isn’t a big fat deal.

Example #2: Scott’s attempt to bigfoot the Democratic primary for Chittenden County State’s Attorney. He openly urged Republicans to take Democratic ballots and vote for challenger Bram Kranichfeld over incumbent Sarah Fair George. At best it’s an ethically questionable thing for a self-proclaimed non-politician to do.

Example #3: What the Scott administration has done to Act 143, the Legislature’s attempt to reform the emergency housing program. I’m preparing to write a full post about this. For now, I’ll just say that Scott signed it and immediately began subverting it. His administration has devised its own plan that certainly violates the spirit of Act 143 and probably the letter of the law as well. Carly Berlin, a reporter shared by VTDigger and Vermont Public, did post a story about this on September 1, but it didn’t explore the full extent of the administration’s skulduggery. Otherwise this sorry affair has gone pretty much uncovered. It ought to be a scandal.

Example #4: In late July, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center published a poll showing that one-half of Vermonters “have a positive overall view of socialism, while only about four in ten have a positive view of capitalism,” and “a plurality have a positive view of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).” (It also showed Donald Trump’s popularity at an all-time low of 22% in Vermont, bwahahaha.)

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All the Weirdness with County Republican Committee Finances

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(The above screenshot was taken on the evening of September 9. As of this writing, on the afternoon of September 10, you can still see this on the Bennington County Republicans’ homepage. Which kind of sums up the tactical and strategic genius of the VTGOP’s county party committees.)

This week, I’ve spent waaaay too much time digging through campaign finance reports from September 1. I’d already done the requisite review of statewide candidates*, and then I started looking around at political committee reports, a jungle where few choose to enter.

*Not sure if it’s really “requisite” anymore since our major media completely ignored the filings. Sigh.

And boy, did I ever hit a rich vein of weird.

What I found, in brief, is that the Vermont Republican Party continues to struggle financially, but some of its county committees are raking in the cash while others have little to nothing. The well-funded committees are in solidly Republican or uncompetitive Democratic counties, so the money is kind of pointless. And the fortunate committees are spending their loot in very different ways, many of which seem irrelevant to the presumed goal of winning elections.

I’m telling you, none of it makes sense. Some of it might trigger legal jeopardy if there was any oversight or enforcement regimen for campaign finance. Which there is NOT, at all.

Here’s a little soupçon to whet your appetite.

The Orleans County Republican Committee spent $15,000 on travel expenses for Lt. Gov. John Rodgers.

I’ll just let that sink in for a moment.

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