The blue wave crashed over every Republican breakwall just about everywhere. Nationally, the Democrats are on track to win lopsided majorities in both houses of Congress and are picking up governorships by the bushel. I’m old enough to have voted in the 1974 post-Watergate wave election; 2026 is on track to be a better night for Democrats.
Here in Vermont, only Gov. Phil Scott survived. He won by a seven-point margin over Democrat Amanda Janoo, but he will be a severely weakened force heading into his sixth (and presumably final) term. His reputed successor, Lt. Gov. John Rodgers, got literally and figuratively mollywhopped and will not be returning to Montpelier.
The big thing for Vermont is that the combined Democratic/Progressive caucuses will hold supermajorities in the House and Senate. We’re looking at a complete reversal of the 2024 Republican advance — and maybe even more.
Quite a few legislative races have yet to be called, but here’s where things stand as of right now. In the Senate, the Democrats have won 19 seats and have a solid lead in a 20th (Orange). Progressive Sen. Tanya Vyhovsky will caucus with them, so that’s 21 seats. Independent Dave Wolk picked off a seat in formerly deep red Rutland, sending *alleged* daughter-puncher Sen. Terry Williams to the showers. Wolk is a former Democratic senator, so he might be expected to caucus with the Democrats.
As for Senate Republicans… they only have seven wins, plus Minority Leader Scott Beck has a narrow lead over Democrat David Roth,so they might end up with eight.
10:34 p.m. Sorry, I took a break to check out the national returns. And not much changed in the meantime; the trends that have been forming for a couple of hours are still holding true. Here’s how things look right now:
Phil Scott’s winning again. Amanda Janoo has been slowly taking nibbles out of his lead, but he’s still 5.7 points ahead with 88% of the votes counted. She’s going to come closer to beating Scott than anyone else on Planet Earth, but she’s not gonna win.
Otherwise, this election could hardly have gone worse for Scott and the VTGOP. Lt. Gov. John Rodgers is getting his clock cleaned. He’s barely running ahead of the no-hopers on the Republican statewide ticket. He is decidedly not the Republicans’ hope for a governor to succeed Scott.
We’re going back to Democratic supermajorities. It looks very much like the Democrats will take back all or almost all the ground they lost in 2024. It looks very much like they will again hold supermajorities in both legislative chambers.
Rural Vermont Rising was a flash in the pan, not a growing force in Vermont politics. Leaving aside the question of whether rural Vermont has been getting the shaft (and I believe there’s a good argument that they have not), they’re getting their collective asses kicked in this election. RVR was seen as a movement on the rise after 2024, but their momentum is all gone after tonight.
Now back to the liveblogging, at least for a while. We’re getting to the point where the big questions are close to being answered, but let’s root around in the returns and see if there’s anything happening.
10:45 p.m. Phil Scott’s middle name must be “sui generis.” He is truly one of a kind. He has a unique hold on the voting public in Vermont. They stick with him through thick and thin. He has run for office in every election since 2000, and he has yet to be defeated. He is the only person to win six terms as Vermont governor. I’m pretty sure Janoo will come closer to beating him than any other candidate ever.
At the same time, the voters are once again making it clear that generally speaking, they favor the Democratic Party over the Republicans. It’ll be interesting to see if Scott tries to claim a mandate if he wins narrowly while the VTGOP takes an historic shellacking.
10:49 p.m. Early prediction for 2028: Phil Scott will not seek a seventh term. Janoo will run again, and should be considered the early favorite in a dogpile of a Democratic primary.
10:50 p.m. The two constitutional amendments are sailing to passage by lopsided margins. Prop 3 has 74% of the vote, and Prop 4 has 79%.
10:51 p.m. Nothing has changed in the state Senate races. The Democrats are still on track to pick up four seats, while the Republicans are likely to lose five. Republican Senators on their way out include Steven Heffernan of Addison, Pat Brennan of Grand Isle, John Benson of Orange, and alleged daughter-puncher Terry Williams of Rutland (who would be replaced by independent Dave Wolk). Rep. Ashley Bartley has apparently fallen short in her bid to win the Chittenden North Senate seat. The new Senate would include 21 Dems and Progs, eight Repubs, and one independent.
10:55 p.m. In the House, likely Republican losers include Rob North, Jim Casey, Mary Morrissey (!!!), Sandra Pinsonault, Debra Powers, Mike Southworth, Brenda Steady, Anthony Micklus, Kumulia Long, Joe Luneau, John Brigham, Richard Bailey, Kevin Winter, Michael Boutin, and Tom Charlton. Mind you, those are only the incumbents on their way to defeat. Some first-time candidates have lost Republican seats as well. Rep. Michael Morgan looks to have survived the devastation by the hairs on his chinny-chin-chin. If any. Necessary caveat: There’s a very good chance of a surprise comeback or two in the legislative races. But the shape and scope of the results are established beyond challenge.
11:04 p.m. Yeah, I’m ready to call it for Phil Scott even if the Associated Press isn’t there yet. With 92% of the vote counted, he’s 5.7 points ahead of Amanda Janoo. This will, in fact, be the closest contest Phil Scott has ever been in. For those who want to being parsing the results, here’s the latest iteration of the Secretary of State’s heatmap, showing which communities went for which candidate and by how much. The bigger and darker the circle, the more decisive the margin.
On the live version, available on the Vermont Public election page, you can click on each town or city and see exactly how they voted. But you can eyeball this map and tell where each candidate was strong. For Janoo, the Connecticut River Valley, Burlington, Winooski, and Montpelier. For Scott, Rutland and Franklin counties plus the Northeast Kingdom and his working-class stomping grounds in central Vermont.
11:11 p.m. The AP has called victory for both constitutional amendments. It has yet to call any statewide races besides U.S. Rep. Becca Balint’s, which I guess is because there’s still a mathematical possibility of a reversal. But the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, auditor, secretary of state and treasurer have never, ever been close.
11:12 p.m. Things are settled enough for me to hang up my blogger hat for the night. I’m sorry about Janoo, who put everything she had into the race and broke through the Democrats’ aversion for their own gubernatorial candidates. She ran a hell of a race on her own terms. Post-mortems are for tomorrow. I’ll see you then.
For those just joining us, this is the image I got when I asked an AI image generator for “Polling Place.” The Age of the Machine is off to a rocky start.
9:00 p.m. So what have we learned so far? Gov. Phil Scott has held a persistent lead over Democrat Amanda Janoo for most of the evening. He has a 9 1/2 point edge with 52% of the vote counted. Otherwise this night is shaping up as a disaster for the Republicans. Lt. Gov. John Rodgers is far behind Democratic challenger Molly Gray. The Dems have a real chance at winning a supermajority in the state Senate. And first-term Republican representatives are falling like flies at a bug zapper. That wave election of 2024 looks like an aberration, not a trend. And the two constitutional amendments are sailing to victory.
9:06 p.m. Republican Rep. Jim Casey of the Addison-Rutland district is behind Democrat Jonathan Hescock by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, but it’s early. Only 44% of the votes are in.
9:10 p.m. Another Republican on the chopping block. Rep. Sandra Pinsonault is trailing Democrat Mike Rice by eight points with 95% of the votes in. That’s the Bennington-Rutland district.
9:12 p.m. By my count, that’s 10 Republicans defeated or trailing in the House. I may be missing a few.
9:14 p.m. The Dems have held serve in the Chittenden-18 district. Incumbent Carol Ode and former Burlington city councilor Ali Dieng appear to have beaten independent Dave Hartnett in a close three-way contest for two seats. 99% of the vote counted.
9:16 p.m. Two more Republican House seats in peril. In the Chittenden-Franklin district, the two Republican incumbents are trailing the two Democrats with 95% of the votes counted. One of the two Dems is Henry Bonges, who was removed from his volunteer positions in Milton town government after he emailed his state reps urging them to support climate action. Those reps also served on the town select board. He may have his revenge tonight.
9:20 p.m. And Franklin County Republican Rep. Joe Luneau seems to be going down to defeat at the hands of Democrat Suzanne Kenyon.
9:22 p.m. Senate Minority Leader Scott Beck is in a very close race with Democrat David Roth. With 54% of the votes counted, Beck has a 2.9 point lead.
9:25 p.m. The Democrats are on track to regain supermajorities in both the House and Senate.
9:28 p.m. Gov. Phil Scott is holding onto his lead. He’s ahead of Amanda Janoo by eight points with 64% of the vote in. But he may be the loneliest man in Montpelier for the next two years, after what’s shaping up to be a bloodbath for Republicans not named “Phil Scott.”
9:30 p.m. Molly Gray, meanwhile, continues to mop the floor with Lt. Gov. John Rodgers. She’s 25 points ahead with 64% of the votes counted. The AP steadfastly refuses to call any race besides U.S. Rep. Becca Balint’s.
9:33 p.m. Former senator Irene Wrenner looks to be returning to Montpelier. With 99% of the votes counted in Chittenden North, she’s ahead of Republican Rep. Ashley Bartley by two full points.
9:37 p.m. It still looks like a Democratic supermajority in the state Senate, although things could change. The Dems are ahead for four seats currently in Republican hands, and independent Dave Wolk continues on track to take a Rutland seat away from the VTGOP. The new Senate would have 21 combined Dems and Progs, only eight Republicans, and one independent. Plus Molly Gray holding the gavel.
9:39 p.m. Amanda Janoo is running out of time and potential votes. She’s 7 1/2 points behind Gov. Phil Scott with 72% of votes counted. She’s gaining, but not fast enough.
9:48 p.m. The way the results are shaping up, I think Rural Vermont Rising is looking more like a flash in the pan than a growing force in Vermont politics.
9:50 p.m. Gov. Scott’s lead is down to 5.7 points, but it doesn’t look like there are enough votes for Janoo to gain that much ground. Otherwise this is shaping up to be a nightmare scenario for Vermont Republicans AND the governor, who will likely face supermajorities in both the House and Senate.
9:56 p.m. Oh boy, 15-term Republican Rep. Mary Morrissey is in trouble. She’s in third place in a race for two seats in Bennington. Only two-thirds of the votes counted, so there’s time for a comeback.
8:04 p.m. One addition to my previous note about state Senate contests: Orange County just reported its first 11% of the vote, and Democratic Rep. Monique Priestley has a big lead over incumbent Republican Sen. John Benson. This was one of the more expensive Senate campaigns of 2026, along with Addison, Grand Isle, and Chittenden North.
8:08 p.m. Scott’s lead over Janoo just shrunk to 11 points, as Brattleboro came in huge for the Democrat. Janoo took more than 71% of the vote in Brattleboro.
8:09 p.m. Make that 10 points. 28% of the votes have been counted in the gubernatorial race. the other five statewide Democratic candidates continue to hold big advantages over their Republican opponents, including Molly Gray over Lt. Gov. John Rodgers. Gray has a 62-38 lead over Rodgers with 28% of the votes counted. Rodgers is underperforming Scott by a massive margin; Scott has 48,394 votes so far to Rodgers’ 34,055. Just waiting for the AP to make some calls here.
8:14 p.m. My little town of East Montpelier went for Janoo. She got 55% of the vote to Scott’s 43.5. Must have been those homemade signs.
8:16 p.m. Scott’s lead over Janoo has shrunk to 8.4 points, thanks mainly to a big tranche of votes from Burlington. The Queen City has reported 43% of its votes, and given Janoo a nearly 2-to-1 edge so far.
8:22 p.m. Bad news for Republicans. With 96% of the vote counted in the Grand Isle Senate district, Democrat Kim Gleason is ahead of incumbent Republican Pat Brennan 53.6% to 46.3%. If the Republicans had any hopes of denting the Dems’ Senate majority, they had to hold onto their 13 seats. Looks like they’re losing one… and counting.
8:29 p.m. If Phil Scott wins, he should send Rutland City a thank-you card. City voters gave Scott 60% of their votes to 37.6% for Janoo.
8:36 p.m. If current results hold — and it’s way too early to tell — the Democrats would regain a supermajority in the state Senate. They lead in four seats currently held by Republicans (Addison, Chittenden North, Grand Isle, and Orange). Republicans are also in danger of losing one of their three Rutland seats, as independent Dave Wolk remains in second place. That would give the Dems 21 seats, the Repubs 8 and one independent. Plus the Dems would have Molly Gray as lieutenant governor.
8:40 p.m. State Rep. Tom Charlton of Windsor-Windham may be a one-term wonder. He trails Democrat William Hoser by 16 points with two-thirds of the votes counted.
8:43 p.m. The AP calls the Grand Isle Senate race for Democrat Kim Gleason over incumbent Republican Pat Brennan.
8:46 p.m. If Scott wins this thing, he should also send a big thank-you card to the Burlington suburbs. He leads or has won in Charlotte, Colchester, Essex Town, South Burlington, South Hero, and Williston. Those communities are voting for Democrats up and down the ticket EXCEPT for Phil Scott. Overall his lead is at 9 1/2 points with less than half the votes counted.
8:50 p.m. Looks like first-term Republican Rep. Rob North is in trouble. He’s in a distant third place in a two-seat Addison County district with 62% of the votes in.
8:52 p.m. Another possible Dem pickup in the House: former Democratic state rep Dennis Labounty is in second place in a two-seat district currently represented by two Republicans. He doesn’t have much of a margin, but more than 3/4 of the votes have been counted.
8:54 p.m. Another Republican on the endangered list: Rep. Brenda Steady of Milton trails Dem Julia Andrews by a 63-37 margin with 55% of the votes counted.
8:56 p.m. Could the Morgan Era be over in Grand Isle-Chittenden? Republican incumbent Leland Morgan did not seek re-election; Michael Morgan is currently in third place in the two-seat district. The two Democrats are in the lead. But it’s very close.
8:57 p.m. Incumbent Republican Rep. Richard Bailey is in serious trouble in the two-seat Lamoille-2 district. The two Dems have a sizeable lead with 59% of the votes in.
8:59 p.m. Another House Republican goes down! Rep. Kevin Winter has lost to Democrat Phoebe Tucker by more than 12 points.
OK, so this is what i got when I told an AI image generator to give me a picture of “Polling Place.” Methinks our godlike Tech Wizards still have some work to do.
Anyway, it’s a few minutes before 7:00, and this is just to let you know that I’ll be sitting in front of my computer this evening, liveblogging about the Vermont returns as they come in. Expect a few races to be called right after the polls close, likely including U.S. Congress, Attorney General, Auditor, Secretary of State, and Treasurer, and probably including Lieutenant Governor. Stick around!
7:05 p.m. No votes counted yet, but I can tell you that 171,750 Vermonters cast votes before Election Day. In the last midterm year, the total vote in Vermont was around 286,000.
7:11 p.m. For the record, the Republican Governors Association’s tame IE-PAC, A Stronger Vermont, reported spending a total of $1,002,665.83 in this election cycle on ads attacking Amanda Janoo and supporting Gov. Phil Scott. That’s more money than either candidate spent on their own campaigns. No wonder people think that politics is full of lies and negativity; what they see of the campaigns is mostly these independent expenditures that are more about tearing down than building up. More than half the money was spent on TV ads ($517K); the second largest category was online advertising ($263K), and the third was payments to political consultancies ($151K).
7:35 p.m. A smattering of votes is in. Janoo has a two-percentage-point lead over Scott with about 5% of all votes counted. All the other Democrats on the statewide ballot are off to huge leads over their Republican opponents, including Molly Gray over Lt. Gov. John Rodgers. The Associated Press has yet to call any of the Vermont races except for legislative seats where only one major party fielded a candidate.
7:41 p.m. Scott takes a 5 1/2 point lead over Janoo with 10% of ballots counted. Scott beat Janoo by 16 points in Williston, which might be a worrying figure for the Democrat.
7:45 p.m. The biggest margins of all in early returns are for the two constitutional amendments. Prop 3 (collective bargaining rights) has a nearly 3-to-1 lead, and Prop 4 (equal protection) has a 4-to-1 lead. Only 3-4% of votes counted in those races.
7:50 p.m. Scott’s lead balloons to 11 points with 19% of all votes counted. Most of the returns are from small towns in conservative areas, although the governor is leading Janoo in some suburban Chittenden County communities. He won in St. Johnsbury by 12 points; Vermont’s other cities have yet to report except that Burlington has counted 17% of its ballots. Those votes went to Janoo by more than a 2-to-1 margin.
7:53 p.m. The AP called the Congressional race for incumbent Becca Balint over The Artist Formerly Known As Scary Eagle Man.
7:55 p.m. Upset alert? In the two-seat Caledonia-Essex House district, Democrat Amanda Cochrane has a big lead with 79% of the votes counted. She’s at 32%, while the other three candidates (incumbent Republican Rep. Deborah Dolgin, her husband Steven, and Democrat Heather Whitemore Young) are bunched together within a half a percentage point. Could St. Johnsbury actually send two Democrats to the House??
7:59 p.m. Some tantalizing state Senate results in the “way too early to call” category. The two Democrats are leading in both Addison and Bennington, which would be a net Democratic pickup of one seat in Addison. Dem Kim Gleason leads Republican Sen. Pat Brennan in Grand Isle, and former senator Irene Wrenner leads Rep. Ashley Bartley in the Chittenden North Senate district. And independent Dave Wolk is in second place in Rutland, which currently sends three Republicans to Montpelier. Too soon to call any of those races, but early hopes for Democrats.
As I’ve been driving around central Vermont lately, I’ve come across a phenomenon: Homemade signs for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo. Most of them are along state Route 14 between North Montpelier and Hardwick, although one is within the Montpelier city limits.
The signs all feature colorful words on a bright yellow background. I don’t know the story behind these signs and I don’t really care. I just think they’re wonderfully refreshing.
Well, there it is. The last (I think) pre-election poll in the race for Vermont governor. And yes, that’s Democrat Amanda Janoo holding an eight-point lead over Gov. Phil Scott, comfortably beyond the poll’s margin of error and a tick north of the all-important 50% mark.
The poll comes from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, and must be accompanied by a couple of caveats. First, the UNH results have been more Janoo-friendly* than the single Vermont Public poll or the ongoing efforts of State Navigate. Second, I’m not sure the Center believes its own product. Its report was headlined “Blue Wave Lifts Janoo Over Scott in Vermont?”
*The Center’s latest Maine poll shows Democrat Troy Jackson with a nine-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Either this will be a true wave election, or UNHSC will have some cleaning up to do.
That’s right, they attached a question mark to their own headline. It’s as if they can’t really believe the results of their own work.
Also worth noting, or puzzling over: The survey’s respondents don’t believe it themselves! 62% of all respondents, including 40% of Janoo voters, predict that Scott will win. Which is very close to where the prediction markets are heading. As recently as September 22, 94% of all bets predictions on Kalshi were for Scott. The governor’s share of the Kalshi action is now at 66% and Janoo is at 34%.
An actual apology — one that fulfills the definition of the word — is a rare and precious thing. People who make public apologies, especially politicians, never put their hearts and souls into the task. Instead, it’s something they feel obliged to do, and they do a piss-poor job of it.
Take Gov. Phil Scott, who made an unforced error during the third and final debate of the gubernatorial campaign, broadcast on WCAX-TV and now viewable online. Scott was asked a question about education funding. His response included an obvious falsehood about the Winooski school district. His general point was that the quality of public education is too variable and that every student deserves equal opportunity. His answer also, as is his wont, pitted rural Vermont versus its more settled areas.
When you look at the Brigham Decision, it was about equalized education in all parts of the state. They decided to do it by the cost of education, and that’s been hampering some of the rural areas of the state where some have one or two languages being offered, whereas in Winooski and some of the Chittenden County areas, they have 17. That’s not an equal education, and we need to do better.
Well, that would be a troubling disparity if true. But it isn’t, at all. The Winooski school board issued a statement saying that in fact, it only offered courses in one language (French), not 17. The board called Scott’s assertion a “dog whistle” meant to stir up rural Vermonters over alleged “special treatment for a district that looks different from theirs.”
Well, the last pre-election campaign finance deadline has come and gone, and the big news is that the unknown underdog newbie pick-your-own-disparaging-descriptor Amanda Janoo has cleared seven figures in total fundraising.
That’s right, we’re talking Dr. Evil money. Janoo continued her late-stage sprint with an impressive haul of $170,000 in the last 15 days, for a grand total of $1,057,389.86 in donations.
Gov. Phil Scott, the invincible incumbent, has raised a much less impressive $720,000 including $130,000 in the most recent period. Of course, he entered the campaign with a hefty stash remaining from his 2024 walkover win, so he’s been able to spend $804,000 in all.
But still, the bottom line is this: Amanda Janoo has outraised and outspent Phil Scott for the entire campaign and in the most recent reporting period, covering the home stretch of the campaign. She’s received gifts from many more individuals than Scott, whose campaign has depended heavily on four-figure donations from the usual suspects in the business community. In her latest filing, Janoo reported receiving 26% of her total take in gifts of $100 or less. Scott, the alleged man o’ the people, got only 5% of his total in donations of $100 or less. (26% may seem low, but it’s actually a very respectable number. Most politicians don’t get that much from small donors.)
Gov. Phil Scott’s office has announced an energy partnership with Nova Scotia that could lead to Vermont getting a lot of its electricity from offshore wind farms planned for the ocean southeast of the Canadian province.
It’s a nice bit of pre-election publicity, seeking to rub some of the tarnish off Scott’s dismal record on renewables at a moment when he needs to shore up his centrist support. Doesn’t it sound great? A new source of cheap, clean power that doesn’t clutter up our own landscape? What could be better?
But there are spiders aplenty in this highly speculative attic, even if you leave aside the gross hypocrisy of Phil Scott advocating for wind power. To begin with, this is a three-year agreement concerning a development that will take at least twice that long to build — if it happens at all. And the press release itself, designed to put the best possible spin on this agreement, is heavily laden with qualifiers. Italics in the next paragraph are mine:
The headline touts the deal as “an agreement to explore bringing offshore wind power to New England through Vermont.” The agreement “establishes a framework for collaboration” on energy development. It “opens a path” to clean energy that “could help hold down electricity costs.” Access to New England markets “could support investment and jobs in the province.” The agreement “will support information sharing and explore opportunities” to bring wind energy “to New England through Vermont.”
Explore. Framework. Opens a path. Opportunities. Could. Could. All that from the office that’s doing its best to put the best face on this deal.
Now let’s do a quick map check. Yeah, “to New England through Vermont” makes no geographic sense at all. Distance from Halifax to Montpelier: 679 miles. From Halifax to Boston: 409 miles. The most direct line to New England is decidedly not through Vermont. And New England’s biggest electricity markets are in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.That’s the shortest possible route for transmission lines and the most lucrative potential markets. Is Nova Scotia really going to bypass all of that to take a 270-mile detour through little ol’ Vermont?
We’re getting very close to “Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” territory. And that’s before we even get to the question of whether Nova Scotia will ever build a vast array of ocean-based turbines, not to mention how much the power would cost after considering the price tag for turbine construction and hundreds of miles of transmission lines.
