Primary Night Instant Reaction, To Be UPDATED Until All the Key Races are Settled

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So it’s primary night in Vermont, and as the results come in, I’m here to read and react. Stay tuned!

Maybe Planet Hank Isn’t a Genius After All. The first contested race to be called by the Associated Press was the Republican primary for the chance to lose to U.S. Rep. Becca Balint in November. And the big winner was Gerald Malloy, who beat Mark Coester by a better than two-to-one margin. Coester’s low-rent campaign leaned heavily on AI-generated Balint attack videos produced by “Planet Hank” Poitras. I had worried that Hank could prove to be a rising star in Vermont conservative circles, because those folks are often drawn to extreme, flashy rhetoric. My concerns are significantly assuaged tonight. Not that we can close the books on Hank, but Coester’s lopsided loss blows a big hole in Hank’s reputation for strategery.

Malloy, meanwhile, kinda-sorta positioned himself as the “moderate,” if only by the current standards of Republican politics. The few Malloy campaign signs I spotted did not feature his notorious scary eagle logo, which I guess was part of the rebranding? No matter; Malloy is destined to go down to his third consecutive defeat in November. In 2022 he got 28% of the vote to Peter Welch’s 68.5% in the race for U.S. Senate. In 2024 he upped his total to 32% while Bernie Sanders took 63%. At this rate, Malloy will win an election in the year 2036. I think that’s a highly optimistic view of his political future.

Molly Gray’s Big Night. The second major race to be called was the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. Turned out the UNH opinion polls got this one right; former LG Molly Gray had no trouble defeating Ryan McLaren and Esther Charlestin. McLaren’s furious fundraising and spending elevated him from a third-place tie with Charlestin to a solid but very distant second. As of this writing, Gray has more than twice as many votes as McLaren.

(The UNH polls were equally prophetic about the Malloy/Coester race. Maybe we should take the other results seriously?)

Instant reax: Gray had a huge advantage in name recognition entering the contest. Mclaren is well known in Democratic circles but had no public profile to speak of before he launched his campaign. He didn’t have much time to close that gap. And I have to say, he didn’t present a convincing rationale for his candidacy — not convincing enough for voters to abandon the candidate they knew. McLaren complained about internal Vermont Democratic Party doings, a tactic that didn’t resonate with the public and may have hurt him with party insiders. He apparently tossed another grenade last month that exploded in the forest and nobody heard? This intriguing nugget from VTDigger’s election night coverage:

In strongly worded interviews, McLaren told VTDigger last month that both of his opponents were falling back on the lieutenant governor role after failing to achieve a higher office (referring, in Gray’s case, to an unsuccessful U.S. House run in 2022).

The Digger story does not include a link to any previous coverage of McLaren’s “strongly worded” remarks, and I don’t remember reading anything about them. Did I miss it? Did Digger not think his statements were newsworthy? If so, that’s an egregious error.

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I Hope the Democrats Have Money Left After the Primary

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The good news, if you favor the Democrats, is that many of their candidates have been able to raise impressive amounts of money in advance of next week’s primary.

The bad news: They’ve spent a lot of their cash in ways that are only tangentially related to advancing the cause in November. Here’s hoping there’s more money where all of that came from.

I mean, look: The two top Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor, Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren, have raised a combined total of close to $750,000. That should be more than enough to fuel an entire campaign for the ol’ bucket of warm piss, but Gray and Mclaren are going to spend most of it by next Tuesday. Gray’s reported spending totaled $248,000 as of August 1, while McLaren had spent $293,000 by then — plus another $52,000 on TV ads reported separately after he’d filed his 8/1 report. Add it all up, that’s $593,000 spent, invested, squandered, take your pick, on the Democratic nomination for an essentially ceremonial office.

The two gubernatorial candidates, meanwhile, have raised $742,000 and spent $632,000. (Amanda Janoo: raised $303,000 and spent $255,000; Aly Richards raised $439,000 and spent $347,000.) The winner will have exceeded expectations for fundraising, but August 12 will find her back at the bottom of the mountain having to push the giant boulder up to the top. As of August 1, Richards had $92,000 in the bank but has spent another $30,000 on TV ads since then, which drops her account balance down to $62,000. Janoo had $46,000 in the bank on August 1 and has since spent $2,000 more on Facebook ads, so her known balance is at $44,000.

Gov. Phil Scott, meanwhile, has been coasting along. He entered the campaign with $240,000 left over from 2024. He’s spent virtually nothing and raised a modest amount, bringing his bank balance up to $309,000. In other words, the Democratic winner will have to do some heavy lifting just to catch up with the governor. And if he feels threatened at all, he’ll kick it in high gear and his base will respond. Two years ago Howard Dean estimated that a challenge to Scott would cost a minimum of $2 million; that seems like a reasonable amount. The Democratic nominee will have less than three months to build a warchest and mount a statewide challenge against a popular governor. Calling it “a tall order” seems like an understatement.

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The Barons Have Lowered Their Sights for 2026

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This is a screenshot from state Sen. Steven Heffernan’s latest campaign finance report. You may recognize the names; the first is actually Amy Tarrant of the Richard Tarrant Cinematic Universe; the other three are Burlington-area developer/real estate types.

The Addison County Republican, allegedly a champion of rural Vermont, is getting virtually all of his money from greater Burlington. In the month of July, Heffernan received a mere four donations of $100 or less and 54 donations of more than $100. NONE of the large gifts were from his own district. All but a handful came from Chittenden County. Grassroots? More like Astroturf.

Now I ask you, do the Barons of Burlington give a rat’s ass about the problems of rural Vermont? Of course they don’t. All they want is a reliable anti-tax vote in the state Senate. (They also have no qualms about supporting an extremist who holds deeply prejudiced views about gender-nonconforming folk.)

After the July 1 campaign finance deadline, I noted a distinct lack of activity from the Barons. In July 2024 they’d flooded the zone with four-figure gifts to the campaigns of several Republican Senate candidates plus John Rodgers, who went on to win the lieutenant governorship. So I wondered if this year’s August 1 reports would reveal another round of early-summer Baronial largesse.

The answer is yes, but in a much more limited and less impactful way.

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“Every Alarm Bell in My Body Is Ringing Right Now”

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Something happened last Wednesday that should have been a big news story, but it wasn’t. I was out of town so it took me some time to catch up, but you know, I felt pretty secure in thinking that I wouldn’t be scooped by anyone in our sadly depleted media ecosystem. Good for me, bad for the public interest, but here we are.

What I’m talking about is a costly, potentially catastrophic situation involving one of the Scott administration’s information technology initiatives.In brief, this project is badly over budget and way behind schedule. There are huge potential risks, known and unknown. Nobody knows how much the thing will cost, how long it would take to complete the work — or if that is even possible. This includes the boffins at Gov. Phil Scott’s much-touted innovation, the Agency of Digital Services.

Have I got your attention?

Here’s something else. The quote in the title came from Republican Sen. David Weeks of Rutland, a political ally of the governor. He knows whereof he speaks; according to his official bio, his career involved “high-level program management positions in the defense and security sectors” involving “high technology operations and project management in the $3 billion range.”

In other words, Weeks may have more experience in IT-related management than anyone at ADS. And he was appalled at what he heard in a July 29 legislative hearing.

Have I got your attention now?

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Scott Admin Does Blatantly Political Thing and Accuses His Opponents of Playing Politics, Part Eleventy-Billion

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If this wasn’t reported as an in-kind donation to the Bram Kranichfeld campaign, it’s only because the dollars-and-cents value was incalculable. Last week, out of nowhere, and without extending the courtesy of informing the mayor of Vermont’s largest and most important city, the Scott administration dispatched the Vermont State Police to patrol the allegedly mean streets of Burlington.

Scott spokesperson Amanda Wheeler had the unmitigated gall to provide this comment to VTDigger: “This is nothing more than the Governor wanting to make sure Burlington is safe for residents and visitors, despite others framing this as a political issue.”

Oh, come ON. Don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.

As is often the case, the governor is the one who’s playing politics and, like a certain orange-skinned chief executive, accusing his political rivals of the very thing he’s engaging in. I think they call that “deflection.”

In case you think I’m exaggerating, let’s look at the course of events.

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Some Deep Out-of-State Pockets are Backing Aly Richards

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This is a screenshot of an ad that’s been circulating on behalf of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Aly Richards. But it didn’t come from her campaign; it was paid for by the (apparently) newborn Independent Expenditure PAC known as “Time for a Change.”

IE-PACs, for those just tuning in, can spend on behalf of favored candidates but can’t coordinate their activities with anyone’s campaign. And this one has a bucket of money to spend by Vermont standards— although it’s getting in gear awfully late in the game.

As of the July 1 reporting deadline, TFAC was in the Secretary of State’s campaign finance system but had yet to raise or spend a single dime. Its August 1 report is a different kettle of fish altogether. TFAC reported raising $230,025 in a single month. The bulk of the total, a flat $200,000, was donated by businesses, not individuals. What’s more, $225,000 came from out of state. Only $5,025 was donated to TFAC by Vermonters. Are anyone else’s hackles raised a little bit, or is it just me?

In its August 1 campaign finance filing, TFAC only reported spending $8,500 (to D.C.-based Liftoff Campaigns LLC for “Media – Consulting”), but that doesn’t tell the story. It has also filed FOUR separate Mass Media filings in the last three days, none of which are reflected in its August 1 report. TFAC sent $50,000 to D.C.-based Middle Seat for online ad buys; another $60,000 to Liftoff Campaigns for “text messaging”; $35,000 to Liftoff for “Online Advertising”; and another $56,500 to Liftoff for more “online advertising.” That’s a total spend of $210,000 in a matter of days!

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So Who’s Spending It, and Where’s It Going?

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While us campaign finance sickos breathlessly await the August 1 filing deadline, we can occupy a bit of our time by tracking the mass media buys reported since July 1. There are quite a few, in fact.

Explainer for those who need it: Whenever a candidate spends $500 or more on mass media (radio, TV, digital ads, printing, mailing, etc.), they must report it to the Secretary of State’s office within a couple of days, a rule often honored more in the breach than the observance.

Can you guess where the most money was spent on mass media this month? That’s right, it’s the Democratic race for lieutenant governor by a country mile. Ryan Mclaren, last seen trailing badly in the polls, poured $125,100 into TV ad buys conducted by Georgia-based Canal Partners Media. Apparent front-runner Molly Gray has spent $112,918 on TV ad buys done by Virginia-based Screen Strategies Media and another $26,537 on postcard mailings by Berlin Rosen LLC of New York for a grand total of $168,135.

Couldn’t help noticing as I scanned all these reports that virtually all statewide candidates and some legislative hopefuls are contracting their printing and media buys out of state. I guess the big firms know what they’re doing, but home cooking seems to be a thing of the past.

Anyway, McLaren and Gray have combined to spend almost $300,000 on a non-gubernatorial primary election. That’s got to be an all-time record. If it’s not, make sure to let me know in the Comments.

Whatever, it’s a fuck-ton of money for a bucket of warm piss, and a further indication that incumbent Republican John Rodgers is extremely vulnerable; both Democrats must feel like the primary is their biggest hurdle.

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Fair Warning: The Cow Lady is Back

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I guess Andrea Murray wasn’t discouraged by a state Senate campaign that, in the Republican wave year of 2024, saw her finish a distant fourth in the deep-blue Windsor district — and blow a big hole in her family’s bank account because she lavishly self-funded her own campaign. Much of her money was spent on two different out-of-state consultancies that shamelessly ripped her off did her no favors at all. Her investment paid the tiniest of dividends; she finished less than two percentage points ahead of two Republicans who barely campaigned at all. (The above screenshot was taken from a two-minute campaign video lavishly produced by one of those consultancies.)

Also, she regularly and wildly flouted campaign finance reporting laws, a practice she has carried forward into 2026. As noted previously, she missed the March 15 and July 1 deadlines despite spending at least some money on Vermont Daily Chronicle ads, a wasteful practice since the vast majority of VDC readers live outside Windsor County. One could argue that the ads could connect her to the wider conservative donor class, except she has yet to attract more than a handful of donors outside her own pocket.

Well, folks, on July 26 she filed both of this year’s reports at once plus the report that was due on July 1 of last year. And there are only five days to go before the next deadline. Great. We’ll probably see her August 1 report sometime in October. Too bad there are no penalties for late filing, thanks to the Legislature’s self-dealing on campaign finance issues.

Anyway, a look at her latest reports shows that she’s not doing anything different from two years ago. Still running in a district that hasn’t elected a Republican to the state Senate since 1994, still pouring her own money into a certain-to-lose campaign, still attracting little money from the rest of the human race.

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Without Comment: A Note from a Reader

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I received this in the form of a comment on my recent post about Brenda Siegel. I don’t have time to dig into this right now, but it seems very timely so I’m elevating it for your consideration. I will say, this kind of thing would be absolutely in line with Scott administration policy on homelessness. They have consistently fought to minimize cost with no particular concern for the human toll wreaked on the unsheltered. Act 143 seemed like a pretty good idea for a new emergency housing program; I would not be surprised in the least if the administration is trying to undercut it.

Dear John —

Today is the final day for public comments on DCF’s draft rules on Act 143. I don’t know if you have seen the ACLU’s take on these rules, but they rules essentially ignore both the letter and spirit of the law, regardless of what the legislature passed and the governor signed. They are essentially negating the law and creating their own program. …The DCF gave only a week for public comment so advocates are scrambling to meet today’s deadline.

If you would like to make a public comment, the email address is: AHS.DCFVHRCPublicComments@vermont.gov

The Reformer Has Itself a Hard-Right Nepo Baby

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Back in 2021, global currency trader Paul Belogour purchased three long-established Vermont newspapers: The Manchester Journal, The Bennington Banner, and The Brattleboro Reformer. It was part of a Brattleboro-area property buying spree by the mullet-haired skillionaire. At the time I noted that it could be a very good thing to be owned a rich guy who could prop up the struggling papers — or a very bad thing because rich-guy owners (See Also: Bezos, Jeff) can be inconsistent stewards with no concept of journalistic ethics. And Belougour’s homeland, Belarus, was dubbed by Reporters Without Borders “the most dangerous country in Europe for media personnel.” That’s saying something, since Putin’s Russia is right next door.

For the most part, things have seemed… okay at the three papers. The paper has published the occasional op-ed or letter from Belogour, mainly parroting Putin’s worldview on European affairs and alleged corruption in Ukraine. But he hasn’t meddled too much in the newsroom as far as I can tell.

Until now.

The above LinkedIn profile lists Alexander Belogour as a “correspondent” for the papers’ corporation, Vermont News & Media. Yes, he’s the owner’s son. And he is a devout Catholic who seems to be part of a national movement toward Catholicism among MAGA men, up to and including Trumpian red-ragger Steve Bannon and Vice President J.D. Vance. Young Belogour is a student at Franciscan University of Steubenville (Ohio), founded in 1946 to cash in on the postwar education boom fueled by the GI Bill (as were many other upstart institutions). Franciscan U was characterized in a 1998 National Catholic Reporter piece as “a sleepy regional college” transformed into an epicenter of conservative Charismatic Catholicism in the late 90s. Enrollment has more than doubled since then.

(The NCR also noted how Franciscan U has infected the culture of the entire city, which should serve as a warning to Poultney, former home of Green Mountain College and possible future home of a university run by a Florida-based evangelist.)

Well, Young Belogour has been spending his summer away from campus as a very busy reporter for his dad’s newspapers. To put it kindly, that’s a mixed blessing. And a troubling portent.

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