The Political Money is Kind of Underwhelming

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Another campaign finance deadline has come and gone, and the big news is… there’s not much news. Well, not much new news, anyway. For the top two statewide races, the latest reports follow familiar patterns.

In the gubernatorial campaign, Democrat Amanda Janoo continues to hold a financial edge over Gov. Phil Scott, whose minimal-effort approach either indicates that (1) he’s very confident or (2) he’s lost his fastball after several easy victories. When you look at his fundraising numbers, you realize the last time he really had to work at it was 10 years ago, in 2016.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Molly Gray holds a substantial lead over incumbent Republican John Rodgers, whose campaign would be scraping bottom if not for big checks from a handful of donors and a $20,000 infusion from the state GOP. You know, Rodgers’ campaign signs tout him as “a voice of the working class,” but working Vermonters seem unappreciative. The vast majority of Rodgers’ money has come from Vermont’s upper class, and most of them hail from Chittenden County. Some kind of disconnect there.

The other four statewide races are uncompetitive, as the Republicans put up unknown and severely underfunded candidates against well-known Democrats.

The most recent filing deadline was Thursday, October 15. Reports covered the period between October 1 and October 15. So let’s get to the numbers.

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Top Lawmakers Desperately Beg Other People to Let Them off the Hook

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Turns out, it was too much to expect that this bunch of uninterested dudes would bring themselves to make a tough call. Instead, they kicked the can down the road and begged other parties to, in the words of Our Lord and Savior, “let this chalice pass from me.”

The occasion was a Thursday meeting of the Legislative Committee on Administrative Rules, the House-Senate panel tasked with reviewing and approving how the executive branch implements legislation. The top agenda item was Act 143, the law that set in process a reform of Vermont’s emergency housing program — more specifically, how the Scott administration interpreted the law and put it into practice.

And in the end, LCAR punted. Committee chair Rep. Trevor Squirrell said no decision would be made for two weeks, and practically begged advocacy groups and administration officials to get together in the meantime and work out their differences. In other words, the panel doesn’t want to reject the Act 143 rules, but can’t possibly ignore all the objections to the rules and the chaos they have caused.

This, after the chairs of the relevant policy committees made clear that in most respects, the rules failed to comport with legislative intent. (Squirrell said that LCAR would “rely heavily on” the chairs’ views, and then proceeded to treat them like an inconvenient fly buzzing around his head.) This, after advocate after advocate testified — again — that the rules have been a disaster and ought to be rejected.

The lesson — again: Never underestimate the ability of a legislative committee to duck an unpleasant situation. Also, speaking as Your Political Observer, never underestimate the ability of Democratic leadership to squander a prime opportunity to confront the Scott administration on a point of vulnerability. Which also happens to have deepened Vermont’s moral failure to address its crisis of unsheltered homelessness.

I mean, how often does a political opportunity also happen to be the right thing to do? Yeah, it was too much for the likes of Rep. Squirrel and his fellows* on LCAR.

*Committee members include seven men and ONE woman. Hat tip to legislative leadership for that!

Another crucial dimension: This was a significant dispute between the two branches. By looking for a way out of the quandary, LCAR abandoned an apparent position of strength. There appears to be very firm ground for the argument that the intent of Act 143 has been flouted. It’s clear that Squirrell’s committee would prefer taking the nearest escape hatch over defending the Legislature’s authority.

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The Slow-Motion Train Wreck of Act 143 Continues Apace

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Our sadly diminished news media is all but ignoring the fact that (1) a humanitarian crisis and (2) a deeply consequential dispute between the Scott administration and the Legislature are both happening in the closing weeks of an election campaign. It’s been several weeks since this thing has gotten any coverage at all.

At issue is the administration’s implementation of Act 143, the bill designed to reform Vermont’s emergency housing system — making it more responsive to the needs of clients and less dependent on hotel/motel rooms. According to one of Act 143’s primary authors, House Human Services Committee chair Theresa Wood, the bill allowed a full year for implementation of a new system. Instead, the administration rushed it through and launched it on September 1. The result? Predictable chaos.

Last Friday, the two policy committees that shepherded Act 143 through the process (House Human Services, Senate Health & Welfare) held a joint hearing on the law’s implementation. (The video of the hearing can be viewed here.) The proceedings were dispiriting, to say the least. Witness after witness testified to the costs of a rushed implementation: new burdens on already overtaxed providers, local governments, and the health care system, massive confusion, bureaucratic waste, and an increase in unsheltered homelessness.

Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

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The RGA Doubles Up — CORRECTED

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Update: Turns out I got this wrong. The RGA’s total contribution to A Stronger Vermont is $400,000 not $800,000. I will explain two paragraphs below.

The Republican Governors Association continues to pour money into Vermont. Today the RGA’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, reported spending another $252,826.90 on TV and digital advertising in support of Gov. Phil Scott and against Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. (Mass media expenditures must be reported to the state within 24 hours when an election is 45 or fewer days away.) That’s on top of previously reported spending of $174,562, for a grand total of $427,388.90 — all of it deployed in the last five days.

If you’ve been paying close attention, you might recall that the RGA devoted $400,000 to help ASV defend Scott against his toughest electoral challenge in a decade, and that ASV has now overshot that total. Well, never fear, because the RGA has reported giving ASV another $400,000. I think we can expect that money to be spent quickly, with more likely on the way.

CORRECTION. In recent days A Stronger Vermont submitted two mass media spending reports. Each reported a $400,000 contribution from the RGA. But A Stronger Vermont’s latest campaign finance filing reports only a single $400,000 gift from the RGA. It’s likely that more money will flow because ASV has spent a total of $463,000 and the RGA is its sole benefactor. I’m leaving the post here, but my inferences and conclusions were incorrect.

A Stronger Vermont has now spent more this year than in any campaign since 2018. It spent a total of $218,717.40 in 2020 to help defeat David Zuckerman. If ASV spends its entire $800,000 in RGA funds and goes anywhere beyond that, it will eclipse the $826,365.84 spent in 2018 against Christine Hallquist.

This is remarkable stuff, given that Janoo is at a substantial disadvantage in name recognition and has never before sought public office. In a year when Republicans are fighting desperately to stave off a national Democratic wave, they are committing more and more money to defend the guy who used to be, not that long ago, America’s most popular governor. And some thought this was going to be a sleepy election season.

The RGA Launches a Surprisingly Subtle Janoo Attack Ad

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The Republican Governors Association’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, has begun airing its anti-Amanda Janoo attack ads. And I have to admit, they’re subtler and more smartly targeted than I expected. There’s none of the heavy-handed “She’s a communist” stuff or the “weirdly darkened images of Janoo,” that I predicted.

Instead, Janoo is presented as unknown and inexperienced while Gov. Phil Scott is the bipartisan Nice Guy of popular imagination. Janoo is depicted making wide-eyed, slightly out-of-control facial expressions, but the skin tone appears unretouched. I’ve seen the ads at least four times but can’t find them online, so I can’t top this piece with a gurning-Janoo screenshot. Instead, I present the closest available alternative: my favorite picture of the governor with a fake grin on his face. Imagine Janoo making a similar expression and you’ve pretty much got it.

Just to catch up on the numbers, the RGA has dumped $400,000 into A Stronger Vermont. ASV had previously reported spending $160,869 on TV and digital ads; over the weekend, it reported another $13,693 in expenditures attacking Janoo and touting Scott. That’s a total of $174,562 with another $225K awaiting deployment. (Other news from mass media filings: Democratic lite-guv candidate Molly Gray has spent $57,051 on a TV ad blitz.)

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Now There’s No Denying We Have a Real Race on Our Hands

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And there it is: A major ad buy from the Republican Governors Association, which hasn’t bothered to spend real money in Vermont since 2020. The RGA’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, just reported spending $160,869 for a blitz of ads mentioning Gov. Phil Scott and his Democratic opponent Amanda Janoo.

Be prepared for an onslaught of attack ads featuring ominous music and weirdly darkened images of Janoo. Because this is only the first step in the plan: The RGA has donated a total of $400,000 to A Stronger Vermont, so there’s plenty of money in the bank for more negative advertising.

We’ve seen the polls showing the most competitive gubernatorial race in a decade. We’ve seen the Scott campaign spend more than $210,000 in the past two weeks on TV and digital ads. And now, here comes the RGA stomping its way into our little corner of the world.

Yep, Phil Scott is no longer safe. He knows it, and national Republicans know it.

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Perhaps a Rebranding Is in Order at VTDigger

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It gives me no pleasure to write this post, but I feel I have no choice because yesterday was a really bad day at VTDigger, starkly showcasing its shortcomings and weaknesses. The word “Digger” seems grossly inappropriate for the product they’re putting out these days. “Surface-Scratcher” is closer to the mark. Now that Digger seems to be regularly running stories about the weather, I might suggest “Vermont’s Friendly Companion,” which has a nice Old Farmers’ Almanac feel to it. Lyman Orton would approve.

First, an extremely curious editorial choice. Digger completely ignored Sen. Bernie Sanders’ endorsement of Amanda Janoo, a significant development in the gubernatorial campaign that was covered by yours truly, Seven Days, and Vermont Public, among others.

On the same day, Digger chose to spotlight the sudden departure of Digital Services Secretary Denise Reilly-Hughes in a story that incuriously regurgitated a Scott administration press release about the move. In itself, this would be annoying, not damning. What took it over the top was this little gem:

Reilly-Hughes’ departure comes as several significant IT projects are underway for Scott’s administration including a $70 million overhaul of the state’s human resources and finance systems. 

The link is to an April story about the state “shifting gears” on the $70 million project. A hell of a lot has happened since then (not that Digger has bothered to pursue the story), and all of it has been bad for the administration. This project has gone so far off the rails that a change in ADS leadership comes as no surprise whatsoever.

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Bernie Comes In from the Cold

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Well, it finally happened. Sen. Bernie Sanders has endorsed Amanda Janoo for governor. He posted an announcement video yesterday, and sent an email blast touting the endorsement this morning to his vaunted mailing list.

Finally, says I. Better late than never.

I still don’t know what took so damn long, but this is not a moment to be churlish. Or at least not a moment to dwell on the churlishness even if it can’t be entirely ignored.

In his slightly under three-minute endorsement video, he offers a hint about why he held off so long:

I personally like Phil Scott, and have worked with the governor on a number of issues over the years. But I believe it’s time for a change, time for new leadership, time for a kind of energy and bold ideas that we’re not seeing in Montpelier right now.

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Scott Administration Policy on Sheltering the Homeless Hits a New Low

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The battle over Act 143 has taken place largely out of the public eye, due in large part to our media’s failure to cover a highly consequential dispute between the Scott administration and the Legislature. But it’s about to boil over in ways that should be unignorable by our Wise Heads in editorial offices.

That’s partly because two different legislative hearings on Act 143 implementation will be held in the next ten days. It’s also because the effects of administration policy are coming into focus, and they are truly disastrous. It is, in the words of a blogpost by the ACLU of Vermont, a “Crisis By Design.”

Or in the words of housing advocate Brenda Siegel, we are on a path toward “catastrophic outcomes like we never have before.” For those in the back thinking to themselves, “But isn’t Brenda Siegel a nagging bitch?” my response is, “Sure, and that’s what makes her so effective as an advocate for an unpopular cause.” She has served, very effectively, as the conscience of Vermont on an issue that Our Political Betters would prefer to ignore.

Siegel also calls the current situation “the worst thing I’ve ever seen,” and she has seen more bad shit in her years as a housing advocate than any of us should have to endure in a lifetime. Her words deserve to be taken seriously by all Vermonters with a soul. Which may or may not include Mr. Phil Scott.

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Announcing: The Stupidest Debate Schedule Ever

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Yesterday, the Phil Scott campaign issued a press release proudly announcing a series of three debates with Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. Good on him, I guess, for showing up three times — although he turned down at least two others, including the traditional opener at the Tunbridge Fair.

But the debates will be crammed into a single week, and the first won’t happen until October 21 — less than two weeks before Election Day.

By then, early voting will have been in progress for more than a month. And more than two months will have passed since Primary Day. Why such a long delay?

Here’s the lineup, including the ludicrous scheduling of debates on consecutive days:

  • Wednesday, October 21, broadcast on radio and television by Vermont Public
  • Thursday, October 22, broadcast on WPTZ-TV
  • Wednesday, October 28, broadcast on WCAX-TV

It’s a gross disservice to the voters, especially to those most likely to vote early: people with demanding work schedules and/or families with children, people with disabilities or suppressed immune systems, the elderly, and people of color who might fear the threat of ICE enforcement at polling places. Many of them will cast their votes without the opportunity of seeing the two major candidates exchanging views in open debate.

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