The first of July marked the most important pre-primary campaign finance deadline for Vermont candidates. The occasion was marked by a depressing lack of coverage in our respectable media. VTDigger ran a boilerplate piece that reported a bunch of numbers but offered little insight. Seven Days and Vermont Public didn’t do anything, as far as I can tell. Our daily papers are a wasteland for political coverage and I rarely watch local TV news, which is largely an exercise in cranking out enough easy content to space out the advertising.

Which is a damn shame because there are definite points of interest, and because this is the most meaningful pre-primary snapshot of the money races. The previous deadline of March 15 was so early that some major candidates (Aly Richards, for instance) had yet to toss their metaphorical hats in the ring. The next deadline of August 1 is very close to primary day, so whatever might be revealed in those reports won’t have much of a chance to sink in.

Altough that’s kind of a moot point since the media is largely ignoring campaign finance altogether. If there was a nuclear revelation to be found, chances are nobody would notice and it would go unreported.

So let’s get to the July 1 numbers and what they tell us about Campaign 2026.

For the first time in years, there’s real money in the Democratic gubernatorial race. Aly Richards, who launched her candidacy after March 15, raised an impressive $366,000 (all figures rounded, because), mainly from large donors. By my count, close to two-thirds of Richards’ haul ($222,000) came in increments of at least $1,000. Also, more than half her total came from donors giving the maximum $5,180 individual gift.

Here’s where you’d expect me to bemoan the influence of big money in politics, right? Well, yes and no. It’d be nice to see a Bernie Sanders-style grassroots uprising. But we’ve been through cycle after cycle of under-resourced Democratic candidates bashing their heads against the wall, and term after term of an unimaginative faux-centrist occupying the corner office with all the aplomb of a dead albatross. In this context, it’s nice to see any Democratic candidate successfully shaking the money trees.

In fact, $366,000 is nothing more than a down payment. During his brief dalliance with a return to politics in 2024, Howard Dean said it’d take at least $2 million to mount a challenge to Gov. Phil Scott. And he’s right. Richards has work to do, but she’s off to a promising start.

On the downside, Richards has already spent $234,000. That’s a daunting burn rate. If she wins, she’ll have even more catching up to do for the general campaign. She’s spent most of her money on two items: $94,000 on payroll (via Rochester, NY-based Paychex, Inc.) and $58,000 to Battleaxe Digital, “a women-owned and run” campaign consultancy from Alexandria, Virginia.

Her primary opponent, Amanda Janoo, is no slouch herself in the tree-shaking department. She raised $165,000 this cycle for a campaign total of $245,000. She has spent $191,000 for the campaign to date, so she’s even shorter on cash than Richards. But both of them show promising signs of fundraising prowess.

Janoo isn’t nearly as dependent on large donations as Richards. Only four of her donors gave the maximum $5,180 compared to Richards’ 29. Donations of $1,000 or more account for just under 30% of her total take.

Let’s name a few names. Richards’ major donors include Democratic megadonors Jane and Bill Stetson ($5,180 each), former National Life president Tom MacLeay ($5,180), former governor Peter Shumlin ($5,000), his brother Jeffrey ($3,000), Howard Dean ($1,000), former attorney general TJ Donovan ($1,000), Rep. Tiff Bluemle ($2,500), and former state reps Sara Coffey ($2,500), Kitty Toll ($1,500), Tim Briglin ($1,000), Jessica Brumsted ($1,000) and Tim Jerman ($1,000). Celebrity alert: humorist and Motel 8 pitchman Tom Bodett kicked in $1,000.

There are fewer “big names” in Janoo’s filing. She does boast support from renewable energy developer David Blittersdorf ($4,180), former gubernatorial candidate Christine Hallquist ($1,000), and writer Bill Schubart ($1,250). The bulk of Janoo’s money, big and small, comes from outside the usual insider tier of deep-pocketed Democrats.

What of Phil Scott, you may be asking. He has yet to put it in gear. He entered this cycle with a $219,000 surplus from 2024. He’s raised an un-grand total of $52,000 for the 2026 cycle, including $48,000 since March 15. He’s spent precious little: $7,000 for this reporting period and $31,000 for the entire campaign. Despite his low-wattage fundraising, Scott has more cash on hand than Janoo and Richards combined. That’s the size of the mountain they are attempting to climb.

In 2024 Scott made a major investment in polling, which presumably led to the Republicans’ big push to gain seats in the state Senate and win back the lieutenant governorship for the first time since 2008. There’s no sign in Scott’s expense reports of any similar investment this year, which is interesting. It could signal overconfidence. Or, on the other hand, maybe he knows this isn’t a great year to be a Vermont Republican. There’s that UNH poll, and the likelihood of an anti-Trump tsunami in November. Doubtless he remains confident in his own prospects, but he may realize that this might be a down year for his VTGOP — widespread talk of a rural revolt notwithstanding.

A lively race for lieutenant governor. Janoo and Richards may have done very well, but many a Democratic donor seems to be assuming the governorship is out of reach (and some of them support the governor anyway), so they’re placing their bets on beating incumbent LG John Rodgers. Who, to judge by that UNH poll, seems highly beatable. The top two Democratic gubernatorial candidates took in a total of $611,000, while the top two LG candidates received almost as much: $559,000. The two offices normally operate on entirely separate financial levels.

The two leading Dems, Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren, are basically dead even in fundraising. Gray received $122,000 in this cycle and $277,000 for the campaign. McLaren reported donations of $130,000 for the cycle and a campaign total of $282,000. (His campaign issued a breathless press release claiming to have raised more than $300,000, which included $23,000 of in-kind donations. When I was a younger Political Observer, I was taught to focus on the cash.)

McLaren has spent $144,000 so far compared to Gray’s $78,000. Presumably McLaren realizes he has to overcome his disadvantage in name recognition (as reflected in that UNH poll). Gray has close to $200,000 in cash on hand compared to McLaren’s $138,000.

Notable donors! McLaren can “boast” of support from Barre’s Republican Mayor and Phil Scott confidant Thom Lauzon ($1,000), former Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lisman ($!,006), Burlington-area developer Jacob Hinsdale, a.k.a. Mr. Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale ($1,000), and property magnate William Bissonette ($1,000). Black-hat lobbyist Heidi Tringe hosted events for McLaren at a total cost of $1,738. Other notable names on Team McLaren: Democratic moneybags Bill Stetson ($3,000), Peter Shumlin ($2,000), TJ Donovan ($1,000), former House speaker Shap Smith ($500), former state rep Dylan Giambatista ($1,750), and journalist/PR flack Neal Goswami ($1,240).

The Gray ledger is a fascinating cross-section of the Vermont donor class, including ski magnate Win Smith ($1,000), real estate poobah Russ Scully ($1,000), developer Brian Boardman ($500), realtor Robert Lair ($1,000), former Burlington mayor Miro Weinberger ($250), other former Burlington mayor Peter Clavelle ($200), DC lobbyist and former Pat Leahy aide Luke Albee ($500), former state senator Peter Galbraith ($1,231), renewable energy developer David Blittersdorf ($500), and Amanda Ellis-Thurber, who challenged state Rep. Emilie Kornheiser in the 2024 primary to little effect ($650). Also, TJ Donovan playing both sides of this street ($1,000) and Possible Celebrity Alert: Timothy Daly of Encino, CA ($500). Voice actor and star of the 90s sitcom “Wings”?

What of incumbent John Rodgers, you may be asking. Not much, really. He raised $17,000 for this reporting period and $54,000 for the entire cycle to date. He entered the campaign cycle with a small surplus and spent about $25,000 so far, leaving him with about $30,000 in the bank. That’s small potatoes compared to Gray and McLaren, but remember that on this date in 2024 the Rodgers campaign was dead in the water. It was on the Fourth of July and thereafter that the big four-figure checks started rolling in from the Barons of Burlington and other friends of Phil Scott, presumably inspired by Scott’s springtime polling. It’ll be real interesting to see how Rodgers is doing on August 1. If he’s still mired in the shallows, then maybe the donor class and Team Scott have tossed him off the sled. (Recall that in the recent UNH poll, Rodgers finished well behind both Gray and McLaren and couldn’t even beat the other Democratic LG candidate, Esther Charlestin.) That would be a major comedown from Rodgers’ post-2024 status as the Republicans’ great future hope.

Is the bloom off the Pieciak rose? Treasurer Mike Pieciak may have bypassed a run for governor, but he has mounted a gubernatorial-sized campaign effort — which is absurd, given that his potential competition is perennial Republican placeholder H. Brooke Paige. His fundraising appeals have been frequent, sweaty, and expensive; he continues to pay big fees to out-of-state consultancies. But his fundraising is more than a little disappointing. For the 2026 campaign to date, he’s raised $185,000 and spent $232,000. Good thing he entered the cycle with a surplus of $206,000 from 2024, because otherwise he’d be significantly under water.

Pieciak has spent a shade under $60,000 for the services of the I’m sure not at all ironically named Authentic Campaign Solutions of Washington. D.C., and another $45,000 for the time and talent of D.C.-based Global Strategy Group. That’s basically $105K he doused in gasoline and set on fire. He sure didn’t need those bespoke-suit guys to beat the likes of H. Brooke Paige. And if what he had in mind was building an unbeatable warchest for a future gubernatorial run, he’s falling well short of that.

Pieciak’s donor list includes several top-shelf Republican donors like Ernie Pomerleau ($5,000), Russ Scully ($4,000), Robert Lair ($4,000), Doug Nedde ($2,680) and Angelo Pizzagalli ($1,000). He can also boast contributions from Ben Cohen ($2,000), Progressive Party donor Charles Merinoff ($5,180), Peter Shumlin’s still extant gubernatorial campaign fund ($1,000), and, for what it’s worth, former Eternal General Bill Sorrell ($800.93).

The other two Democratic statewides, Attorney General Charity Clark and Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas, are acting like entrenched incumbents certain to face Republican tomato cans in November. Clark entered the cycle with $153,000 left over from 2024, and has raised a total of $162,000 since then — including only $47,000 between March 15 and July 1. She’s spent only $64,000 so far, leaving her with a more than sufficient $177,000 in the bank, about $10,000 more than Pieciak.

Copeland Hanzas has essentially stopped pretending to run. She raised a mere $1,436 in the reporting period and spent only $1,648. She has about $14,000 in the bank. Which is more than enough to beat Paige or [insert little-known Republican here], and nowhere near enough to constitute a build toward a run for governor. Maybe she just likes being Secretary of State?

There are some notes of interest in legislative races, but good grief, this post is more than long enough already. I may circle back to some top Statehouse contests if other business doesn’t intrude.