Tag Archives: John Rodgers

Phil Scott Slides Below 50%, John Rodgers Is in Trouble, and Other Notes from a New UNH Poll

Leave a reply

After months of essentially ignoring the contested statewide primary races, our media outlets are suddenly starting to pay attention. It’s as if somebody glanced at a calendar and realized the primary is less than three weeks away, wow, we’d better get on the stick.

I mean, a story posted this week by Vermont Public termed the primary “sleepy,” to which I say, well, whose fault is that? The Democratic candidates for governor and lieutenant governor have been working their asses off, traveling around the state, speaking to anyone who will invite them, and fundraising at a robust pace. They’ve been doing their part; it’s the media that have, until now, made this a “sleepy” primary by paying it little attention.

Enough ranting, let’s get to business. The University of New Hampshire Research Center has published another poll on Vermont politics, and the basic throughline is a gradual cementing of previously seen trends. But there are some notable results, such as a drop below 50% approval for our legendarily popular Gov. Phil Scott. In a June survey, Scott had fallen from his accustomed perch in the low to mid 60s down to 51%. (He was at 60% as recently as last fall.) Now he’s at 48%, with 43% disapproving and 8% expressing no opinion. What’s more, the ranks of the “Strongly” disapproving rose from 15% to 20%. Fresh dents in the Teflon?

There’s more in the gubernatorial numbers but first I want to hit the LG results, which show incumbent Republican John Rodgers in serious trouble. In hypothetical matchups, Rodgers loses to any of the three Democrats in the race — including Esther Charlestin. And he seems to be falling further behind. Another thing: on the gambling racket prediction marketplace Kalshi, for what it’s worth, 71% of the wagers are on the Democrats taking back the ol’ bucket of warm piss. (Fascinating Kalshi note: “Republican” held a 60-40 edge until July 3, when “Republican” took a sudden plunge and “Democrat” surged. The market has stayed essentially the same since then.) (Humbling Kalshi note: Bets on the LG race total less than $14,000, while bets on “LeBron James Next Team” are more than $214,000,000.)

Continue reading →

The Money Race Is, As They Say, Heating Up. In Some Precincts, Anyway.

2 Replies

The first of July marked the most important pre-primary campaign finance deadline for Vermont candidates. The occasion was marked by a depressing lack of coverage in our respectable media. VTDigger ran a boilerplate piece that reported a bunch of numbers but offered little insight. Seven Days and Vermont Public didn’t do anything, as far as I can tell. Our daily papers are a wasteland for political coverage and I rarely watch local TV news, which is largely an exercise in cranking out enough easy content to space out the advertising.

Which is a damn shame because there are definite points of interest, and because this is the most meaningful pre-primary snapshot of the money races. The previous deadline of March 15 was so early that some major candidates (Aly Richards, for instance) had yet to toss their metaphorical hats in the ring. The next deadline of August 1 is very close to primary day, so whatever might be revealed in those reports won’t have much of a chance to sink in.

Altough that’s kind of a moot point since the media is largely ignoring campaign finance altogether. If there was a nuclear revelation to be found, chances are nobody would notice and it would go unreported.

So let’s get to the July 1 numbers and what they tell us about Campaign 2026.

Continue reading →

Hey, We’ve Got a New Poll and… Phil Scott is Vulnerable??

1 Reply

Speaking from experience, one of the biggest mistakes political pundits can make is writing political obituaries for Gov. Phil Scott. He is the grand champeen of Vermont politicians, having gone undefeated since his original election to the state Senate way back in 2000. If he wins re-election in November, he will have done what no other Vermonter has managed: winning six gubernatorial elections. He’s a couple years shy of Howard Dean’s record tenancy in the corner office, but Dean first became governor upon the death of Dick Snelling. He was elected governor “only” five times.

Still, a new opinion poll brings some bad news for Scott. He remains the overwhelming favorite to go where no pol has gone before, but the bloom is coming off the rose. Storm clouds can be seen on the distant horizon. There are perceptible dents in his previously spotless Teflon coat. The tires are showing signs of wear.

Enough half-baked analogies. Since there are no polling organizations in Vermont, we have to settle for this offering from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. There are a bunch of interesting numbers to be found, but let’s start with the bloom and the clouds and the dents and the tires.

Scott’s favorability rating, whose customary habitat is in the stratosphere, now sits uncomfortably close to 50%. In matchups with relatively little-known Democratic opponents, he comes nowhere near a majority. And only one-third of Vermonters think the state is headed in the right direction.

And now, the details.

Continue reading →

Campaign Finance Deadline #1: The Money’s Going to Some Unexpected Places

2 Replies

So March 15 was the first campaign finance deadline (in Vermont) of 2026, and the second won’t come until July 1, mere weeks before the August primary. Yesterday was a big day, in other words, and there were some clear winners in the field. And not necessarily the winners you’d want, if you were to distribute the available Democratic dollars to the top-priority contests.

Which are, to my eye: Running a credible race for governor, rebuilding the state Senate majority, and knocking Lt. Gov. John Rodgers off his perch. It will be no shock whatsoever to learn that the usual Democratic donors seem to be paying little attention to the gubernatorial, and a lot of cash is being funneled into primary contests for safe Democratic seats. The only race where priority and cash are equivalent is in the Democratic race for lieutenant governor.

One saving grace: Many of the top fundraising candidates were drawing, in part, from unique sources of support rather than draining the mainstream Democratic pool. Many of Nikhil Goyal’s many, many donors, for instance, wouldn’t have given to anyone else.

The race for biggest moneybags of March is a virtual tie between Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren, Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor. They each raised more than $150,000, which is awfully impressive. Lookin’ like a red-hot race there.

Biggest moneybags per capita: state Senate candidate Goyal, who raised the eye-popping sum of $86,193.

Much better than expected: Recently declared Democratic candidate for governor Amanda Janoo, who cleared the $80,000 mark. That’s a really strong start, but she still has a ton of work to do.

Highest burn rate: Treasurer Mike Pieciak, who somehow managed to spend close to $60,000 in the early stages of a race for re-election he’s all but certain to win. Much of that cash went to expensive out-of-state campaign operatives. It’s almost as if he’s laying the groundwork for a seemingly inevitable run for governor.

There are your toplines. For those as obsessed with campaign cash as This Observer, more details follow.

Continue reading →

Them Bennington Boys Are At It Again

2 Replies

Well, the confirmation vote on Michael Drescher came out as I expected — with barely enough support from Democrats to drag his nomination across the finish line. Congrats, Vermont! One of Trump’s willing instruments now has a lifetime appointment on your state Supreme Court.

The vote was 15-15, with two Democrats joining all 13 Republicans in support and Lt. Gov. John Rodgers breaking the tie in Drescher’s favor. It could have been different if David Zuckerman still wielded the gavel, but you know what they say about spilled milk.

It also would have been different if Bennington County didn’t have such a rich tradition of electing centrist Democrats with renegade tendencies. Because the two votes that enabled Drescher’s elevation came from Bennington’s two senators, Seth Bongartz and Rob Plunkett. Ahh, reminds me of the bad old days when the scent of Campho-Phenique hung heavy over the Senate’s chambers and the county was represented by Bob Hartwell and Dick Sears.

Continue reading →

Wake Me When It’s Over

2 Replies

Listening to Phil Scott talk is like bathing in a vat of Malt-o-Meal: Sleep-inducing, no stimulative properties, somehow comforting and discomfiting at the same time. If you don’t believe me, just look: Scott’s buddy Lt. Gov. John Rodgers is fixin’ to nod off.

Seriously, this is the second time in a month I took notes on a gubernatorial address only to barely scratch the surface of my legal pad. (Yes, I’m old.)

Which stands to reason. He was never an orator by any means and he’s been in office for nearly a decade. If he had anything new to contribute, he would have done so long ago.

He did try to pretend there was new wine in those old, moth-eaten wineskins but it wasn’t nearly enough to persuade. Every governorship has an expiration date, and this speech was one more sign that Scott’s has come and gone. Not that he won’t win another term if he tries, since all the top-tier Democrats seem to be scared out of their minds to confront him and far too many Dems are happy to keep on voting for him because, I don’t know, he handled Covid pretty well (six years ago) and he’s not Donald Trump?

I mean, he talked about permit reform as the fix for the housing crisis. He complained about the cost of public education. He emphasized enforcement in his approach to crime, juvenile offenders, and substance use. He called for rollbacks or repeal of Democratic initiatives on climate change. Blah blah blah.

Oh, and he had the brass balls to blame Peter Shumlin for our crisis in health care costs. Shumlin, who hasn’t been in office for a decade and who abandoned his single-payer plan in The Year of Our Lord 2014. Scott cited Shumlin’s failed effort and the regulatory regime he did implement as the wellspring of our health care woes.

To which I say, well, who the hell has been governor since January 2017 and why hasn’t he done anything to counteract the alleged poison of Shumlin’s doomed reform plan?

One of Scott’s core efforts to lipstick his pig of a record was his call for reinvention of how state government does its work. As precedent, he cited reforms initiated under Dick Snelling and continued under Howard Dean, and said it was time to refresh that effort for a new era.

You know what it reminded me of? When Scott was first running for governor in 2016, he touted lean management at every opportunity. Lean management, he said, was the key to unlocking huge savings in state government:

I believe we can reduce the operational cost of every agency and department by one cent for every dollar currently spent, in my first year in office. Saving one penny on the dollar generates about $55 million in savings.

The link above is to a piece I wrote in 2020, by which time the phrase “lean management” had long been assigned to the dustbin of bankrupt political schemes. When asked about it in early 2020, Finance Commissioner Adam Greshin said “It’s not necessarily about savings, it’s about maybe spending the same amount of money and providing better value.”

Okay, fine. But that’s not what candidate Scott promised. And if he had made good on his promise, that’d be more than half a billion dollars we could have returned to taxpayers or invested in addressing some of our many challenges.

That was the unfulfilled promise of Scott, the businessman who knew how to make government work better and cheaper. And just like all the other businessmen-turned-politicians before him, he found out that the real-life work of managing government was a hell of a lot harder than he thought.

And now he’s coming back with a vaguely-described plan to reinvent state government. I’ll believe it when I see it. No, wait, I won’t believe it when I see it — I’ll believe it when it produces real, tangible savings. Not holding my breath.

I think Phil Scott has had his chance. He’s had many chances, thanks to his easy-going Real Vermonter charm and the failure of top Democrats to mount the least resistance, to put in the effort needed to rough up his Teflon coat. But it sure looks like we’re stuck with him for a while yet.

I tell you what, the next governor is going to have a massive job on their hands to clean up all the messes Scott leaves behind and all the crises he’s allowed to get worse and worse.

With a Friendly Affect and Some Damn Sharp Elbows, Molly Gray Officially Enters the Race for LG

2 Replies

This is a screenshot of the first two rows of prominent Democrats and Progressives endorsing former lieutenant governor Molly Gray’s bid to return as The Hand That Holds The Gavel. Gray, who’d all but announced (to Seven Days) before Thanksgiving, finally made it official today, Monday, January 5.

After those first two rows there are 11 more. Declared Gray supporters include nine sitting state senators, 29 state representatives, plus prominent figures such as former governor Howard Dean and former lawmakers Brian Campion, Kitty Toll, and Jessica Brumsted.

It truly is an impressive haul, not only for the numbers but for the ideological spectrum. Team Gray ranges from the Progressive camp to centrist Democrats. If she’s left a lane open for another Democratic candidate, I can’t identify it. The lefty names on the list should help overcome the perception that she’s a policy squish, which helped doom her 2022 bid for Congress.

Not that endorsements are the be-all, end-all. But this is a show of force aimed at avoiding a competitive Democratic primary, and it may well succeed. Curtis-Hoff award winner Ryan McLaren, who’s been an aide to Peter Welch (as U.S. Representative and Senator) since 2015, has been considering a run for the office, but he has to know he’d be facing a very well-connected opponent with far more name recognition. This is not the softest of targets.

So how did we get here? Cue the semi-informed speculation!

Continue reading →

John Rodgers is STILL a Campaign Finance Scofflaw

6 Replies

Hey, remember December 17, when I broke the news that Lt. Gov. John Rodgers’ campaign had reported spending 31.5% more money than it had received? (His final filing for 2024 reported receiving $216,468 and spending $288,588.01.) Curious thing for a tough-minded fiscal conservative, right?

Now, remember when someone in The Respectable Media finally deigned to report on Rodgers’ faulty filings?

One and a half months later?

Yeah, watchdogs, hahaha. (VTDigger, which couldn’t wait to breathlessly inform us that U.S. Rep. Becca Balint’s leadership PAC received small quantities of corporate cash, which is absolutely legal, has yet to publish a goddamn word about Rodgers’ violations of the law. Vermont Public, also silent.)

That single published report about Rodgers’ faulty filings, by Seven Days’ Kevin McCallum, quoted campaign manager Rep. Casey Toof as attributing the gross discrepancy to a pair of whopper-sized bookkeeping errors. McCallum also quoted Rodgers as whining about how hard it is to comply with campaign finance law.

Oh, boo hoo hoo, Johnny, everybody else manages to do it. Why not you, or your experienced politician of a campaign manager?

But enough about the past. Let’s bring things up to date.

Continue reading →

But It’s Way Too Early to Even THINK About the 2026 Cam — Oh. (UPDATED)

4 Replies

You probably heard about the baby race at a recent WNBA game. Yeah, the one where all the babies sat unmoving at the starting line until one of them got up and walked, allegedly for the first time ever, all the way to the finish line. It was a heartwarming moment, at least until the Internet trolls started accusing the baby’s parents of cheating.

Well, the Vermont Democratic Party’s competition for the top of the ticket reminds me of that baby race, except it’s been going on for close to a decade. We’re all staring at these babies waiting for one of them to make a move.

And now, suddenly, one of them has made a move. Unfortunately, the move was to walk off the race course.

Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas has announced she’s running for a third term, presumably against H. Brooke Paige, the world’s most elegantly dressed tomato can. (This development was apparently of interest only to WPTZ-TV. I’ve seen no other reports on her announcement. Hell, VTDigger ran a story about Copeland Hanzas today that somehow didn’t even mention her 2026 declaration.) But there are three things more important to us Vermont Political Observers than the fact that she’s running for re-election.

Continue reading →

The Latest News on the 2026 Gubernatorial Race is… No News

2 Replies

No one besides us pathological Vermont Political Observers will have noticed, but July 1 was not just Bobby Bonilla Day, it was also a milestone in the 2026 gubernatorial campaign: the only campaign finance filing deadline in the year 2025. In fact, the next deadline isn’t until March 15, 2026 — not much more than two months shy of the filing deadline for major party candidates. But then, we do love our myth that nobody runs for office until June of an election year.

In other words, it’s going to get late early. Which makes it especially disappointing for campaign finance sickos (raises hand with pride) that Tuesday’s deadline produced no hints whatsoever about the race for governor in 2026.

Going into the day, I was expecting that Treasurer Mike Pieciak might report a decent-sized pile, like in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, if only to pre-empt a potential flood of Democratic candidates and an unpredictable dogpile primary á la 2010, when Jim Douglas was retiring and an entire generation of Democrats entered the race. Well, five Democrats, anyway. Four of ’em finished within four percentage points of each other, and Peter Shumlin won (by two-tenths of a percent over Doug Racine) with less than one-quarter of the vote. And we all know how that turned out (cough) EB-5, single payer health care, Scott Milne (cough).

I’m allowing myself a little historical tangent because it’s much more interesting than the great big nothing we got in Tuesday’s filings. The details follow. If you like disappointment, read on.

Continue reading →