Well, there it is. The last (I think) pre-election poll in the race for Vermont governor. And yes, that’s Democrat Amanda Janoo holding an eight-point lead over Gov. Phil Scott, comfortably beyond the poll’s margin of error and a tick north of the all-important 50% mark.

The poll comes from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, and must be accompanied by a couple of caveats. First, the UNH results have been more Janoo-friendly* than the single Vermont Public poll or the ongoing efforts of State Navigate. Second, I’m not sure the Center believes its own product. Its report was headlined “Blue Wave Lifts Janoo Over Scott in Vermont?”

*The Center’s latest Maine poll shows Democrat Troy Jackson with a nine-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Either this will be a true wave election, or UNHSC will have some cleaning up to do.

That’s right, they attached a question mark to their own headline. It’s as if they can’t really believe the results of their own work.

Also worth noting, or puzzling over: The survey’s respondents don’t believe it themselves! 62% of all respondents, including 40% of Janoo voters, predict that Scott will win. Which is very close to where the prediction markets are heading. As recently as September 22, 94% of all bets predictions on Kalshi were for Scott. The governor’s share of the Kalshi action is now at 66% and Janoo is at 34%.

Is this because the polls are wrong, or because this election is such a surprise that conventional wisdom has failed to keep up? We’ll find out soon enough.

The latest UNH result isn’t much different from its last one. In late September, Janoo had a 49-43 lead with 6% undecided. In the new poll, the undecideds have dropped to 1% and a very interesting thing happened to the other 5%. Scott didn’t get any of them. Janoo got 2%, while another 2% went to the very conservative independent candidate and cartoonish election denialist Brian Judd. The last percent bravely opted for “Another Candidate.”

If true, that’s a fascinating and unusual development. Normally, undecideds will more or less split down the middle. In this case, they split in every direction except Scott’s.

Which brings me to a related worm in the Phil Scott apple: Losses in the conservative base. Fully 10% of Republicans plan to vote for Brian Judd and “only” 85% plan to vote for Scott. On the Democratic side, 78% are for Janoo and 20% are still with the governor. That’s a lot of Democratic crossover, but not nearly as much as Scott has enjoyed in past cycles. Again, if this poll is accurate, Phil Scott is bleeding support from the left and right, even as his campaign touts his centrism. Maybe that’s no longer a winning argument in the Year of Our Lord 2026.

So. There is some statistical support for a Janoo wave — and an eight-point win would definitely be a wave, not even her hardest-core supporters predict anything more than a nail-biter of a finish — but only within the confines of The Planet Of The UNH Survey Center. If they’ve got it right, then Janoo wins with relative ease. If they don’t, well, nail-biter or an evening of disappointment for Camp Janoo.

The Survey Center also polled the other top two races on the Vermont ticket, and they showed exactly what they’ve shown before: Overwhelming victories for Molly Gray and U.S. Rep. Becca Balint. Gray’s lead over incumbent Lt. Gov. John Rodgers has gotten bigger according to UNHSC. In September, it was Gray 54%, Rodgers 35%, and 11% undecided. Now it’s Gray 63% and Rodgers 34%, with only 2% undecided. Molly Gray has seemingly picked up virtually every voter who made up their minds in the last several weeks, while Rodgers is stuck where he’s been throughout the campaign: In the 30-35% range. That’s “generic Republican” territory. That’s H. Brooke Paige levels of popularity.

Balint has essentially held serve since July. She had 63% support in UNH’s July poll, 66% in September, and 66% again now. Republican Gerald Malloy can barely get above 30%. I guess Malloy’s pivot toward Phil Scott-style centrism and his abandonment of the Scary Eagle logo* haven’t convinced the voters. Any Republican on the ticket, including a dead dog or an ax murderer, can draw 30% of the vote.

*I am very happy to report that the Scary Eagle lives on in Malloy’s overstuffed merch page. You can get the classic eagle logo, complete with drag queen levels of mascara, on a variety of items including a coffee mug, kitchen apron, water bottle, backpack, and my all-time favorite, the Kids Fleece Hoodie. That’s right, you can still send your toddler off into the world with a scary eagle on his attire.

The trick is to get out of that ditch and into the mainstream. Malloy and Rodgers have apparently failed in that task. Which is especially noteworthy in Rodgers’ case; he is the incumbent, after all, and his centrist credentials are backed by his many years as a Democratic legislator. If he can’t clear 40%, his tenure will be remembered as a huge disappointment. And an object lesson for political types eager to identify The Next Phil Scott.

Hell, if the UNH survey is anywhere close to the mark, not even Phil Scott himself is The Next Phil Scott.