Tag Archives: Becca Balint

The Numbers The Numbers ALL THE NUMBERS

4 Replies

When a poll came out last week showing Amanda Janoo leading Gov. Phil Scott, it wasn’t well received by Team Scott. Campaign manager Dustin Degree called the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Green Mountain State Poll an “outlier,” which is factually incorrect on its face. It can’t be an “outlier” because there were no other polls to compare it to.

But I can understand the reaction. You thought you had it in the bag, and here comes an inconvenient poll poking holes in your Shield of Invulnerability.

Well, now we have a second survey, and what I can tell you is that each of them outlies the other. The new poll commissioned by Vermont Public is more favorable to Republicans across the board than the UNH survey. In the gubernatorial race, it puts Scott 10 points ahead of Janoo while UNH gives Janoo a six-point lead.

In the campaign for lieutenant governor, UNH has Democrat Molly Gray holding a decisive 19-point edge over incumbent John Rodgers while VP reports Gray with a lead of eight points. And there’s a huge divergence in the campaign for Vermont’s single seat in the U.S. House: Instead of incumbent Becca Balint’s 66-30 edge in the UNH poll, the Vermont Public survey gives Balint only a 15-point lead with, again, enough undecideds to turn the race around.

Those are big enough swings to cast doubt over the entire enterprise. I mean, each poll claims a margin of error under 3.5 points, but the differences between the two are waaaaaay bigger than that.

Continue reading →

I Just Felt the Earth Move Under My Feet

4 Replies

When was the last time we had an honest-to-God “Holy Shit” moment in the bland, predictable world of Vermont politics? I’m thinking it was 2014, when Scott Milne nearly defeated incumbent governor Peter Shumlin.

Well, we’ve got another one on our hands. Feast your eyes on the latest work from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center (full results downloadable here), which shows Democrat Amanda Janoo with a six-point lead over “unbeatable” Gov. Phil Scott, 49% to 43%. (The Survey Center labels the race a “statistical tie” because Janoo’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error.)

That’s right. No typo, no mistake. Janoo, who began this year a political unknown, seems to have the edge over our five-term governor.

Wow.

And before you cast doubt on the Survey Center’s reliability, three things. First, it’s been consistently right in Vermont this year. It foreshadowed Janoo’s win over fellow Democrat Aly Richards, Molly Gray’s mollywhopping of Ryan McLaren in the race for lieutenant governor, and Gerald Malloy’s trouncing of Mark Coester in the Republican Congressional primary.

Second, its methodology seems solid. This wasn’t one of your old-fashioned telephone surveys, which have become increasingly trouble-prone. Instead, UNHSC assembled a 2,700-person “probability-based web panel” used throughout this election year. About 40% of panel members responded to this poll. Data were weighted in a number of categories, including participation in the 2024 election. I’m not a statistician, but it looks reasonable to me.

Continue reading →

Hey, Bernie! Can You Spare a Moment for Amanda Janoo or Nah?

17 Replies

Recently I wrote a post criticizing Democratic Party bigwigs’ underwhelming support for their gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo. During the month of August, not a single Democratic officeholder donated to the badly underfunded Janoo campaign. (A few did donate to her campaign before August 1.) This is looking like a missed opportunity given recent signs of slippage in Gov. Phil Scott’s favorability numbers and the very real signs of life in Janoo’s organization. (She’s holding dozens of canvasses and honk-and-waves in coming weeks, which must mean she’s generating grassroots energy and attracting a lot of volunteers.)

But now it’s time to throw the same shade at Vermont’s very elder statesman, Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. To his credit, he continues to work hard and travel his buns off in support of progressive-minded candidates across the country. Ballotpedia keeps a running tab of his endorsements — defined as “official statements, appearances at campaign rallies, and direct participation in campaign ads and materials.” It’s a very long list. In 2026 alone, Sanders has acted in support of 83 candidates across the country. That’s roughly one candidate every three days.

Amanda Janoo does not appear on the list. Nor do I recall Sanders issuing a statement about Janoo or appearing at one of her campaign events or, most valuable currency of all, sending an email to his vaunted contact list seeking donations for Janoo’s cash-starved campaign.

Janoo is a candidate straight out of Bernie Central Casting. She’s a creative, original thinker with a strong progressive streak. Her platform is a close match for Bernie’s. So why no love for the hometown candidate?

Continue reading →

Phil Scott Slides Below 50%, John Rodgers Is in Trouble, and Other Notes from a New UNH Poll

2 Replies

After months of essentially ignoring the contested statewide primary races, our media outlets are suddenly starting to pay attention. It’s as if somebody glanced at a calendar and realized the primary is less than three weeks away, wow, we’d better get on the stick.

I mean, a story posted this week by Vermont Public termed the primary “sleepy,” to which I say, well, whose fault is that? The Democratic candidates for governor and lieutenant governor have been working their asses off, traveling around the state, speaking to anyone who will invite them, and fundraising at a robust pace. They’ve been doing their part; it’s the media that have, until now, made this a “sleepy” primary by paying it little attention.

Enough ranting, let’s get to business. The University of New Hampshire Research Center has published another poll on Vermont politics, and the basic throughline is a gradual cementing of previously seen trends. But there are some notable results, such as a drop below 50% approval for our legendarily popular Gov. Phil Scott. In a June survey, Scott had fallen from his accustomed perch in the low to mid 60s down to 51%. (He was at 60% as recently as last fall.) Now he’s at 48%, with 43% disapproving and 8% expressing no opinion. What’s more, the ranks of the “Strongly” disapproving rose from 15% to 20%. Fresh dents in the Teflon?

There’s more in the gubernatorial numbers but first I want to hit the LG results, which show incumbent Republican John Rodgers in serious trouble. In hypothetical matchups, Rodgers loses to any of the three Democrats in the race — including Esther Charlestin. And he seems to be falling further behind. Another thing: on the gambling racket prediction marketplace Kalshi, for what it’s worth, 71% of the wagers are on the Democrats taking back the ol’ bucket of warm piss. (Fascinating Kalshi note: “Republican” held a 60-40 edge until July 3, when “Republican” took a sudden plunge and “Democrat” surged. The market has stayed essentially the same since then.) (Humbling Kalshi note: Bets on the LG race total less than $14,000, while bets on “LeBron James Next Team” are more than $214,000,000.)

Continue reading →

Hey, We’ve Got a New Poll and… Phil Scott is Vulnerable??

1 Reply

Speaking from experience, one of the biggest mistakes political pundits can make is writing political obituaries for Gov. Phil Scott. He is the grand champeen of Vermont politicians, having gone undefeated since his original election to the state Senate way back in 2000. If he wins re-election in November, he will have done what no other Vermonter has managed: winning six gubernatorial elections. He’s a couple years shy of Howard Dean’s record tenancy in the corner office, but Dean first became governor upon the death of Dick Snelling. He was elected governor “only” five times.

Still, a new opinion poll brings some bad news for Scott. He remains the overwhelming favorite to go where no pol has gone before, but the bloom is coming off the rose. Storm clouds can be seen on the distant horizon. There are perceptible dents in his previously spotless Teflon coat. The tires are showing signs of wear.

Enough half-baked analogies. Since there are no polling organizations in Vermont, we have to settle for this offering from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. There are a bunch of interesting numbers to be found, but let’s start with the bloom and the clouds and the dents and the tires.

Scott’s favorability rating, whose customary habitat is in the stratosphere, now sits uncomfortably close to 50%. In matchups with relatively little-known Democratic opponents, he comes nowhere near a majority. And only one-third of Vermonters think the state is headed in the right direction.

And now, the details.

Continue reading →

We’re About to Get a Good Read on How Crazy the Vermont Republican Party Is

6 Replies

Sad to say, but we’ve arrived at the point where Scary Eagle Man is the only sensible choice.

That’s because Gerald Malloy is running for the Republican Congressional nomination against hyper-manly-man Mark Coester, seen here in an AI-generated video purportedly wagging his finger in U.S. Rep. Becca Balint’s face. I’d dare him to try that in real life. He’d find out just how scrappy that little dyke can be.

And if the Republican primary electorate chooses Coester over Malloy, then we’ll know for sure that Gov. Phil Scott’s version of Republicanism is well and truly dead. Because if there was any doubt about whether Coester is a certified far-right whack job [Narrator: “There wasn’t“], he removed it in one brief conversation with Seven Days’ Kevin McCallum.

In said conversation, he addressed McCallum as a “libtard fuck,” and later added this gem: “These commie fucks in Vermont pass whatever garbage fuckin’ laws they want to. They can do what and they can kiss my ass…”

As a loyal member of the Vermont Commie Fucks Club, let me say I am honored to be a target of Mr. Coester’s spittle-flecked outburst. (Disclosure: I’m just guessing about the spittle, but I think I’m on safe ground.)

Continue reading →

So… Molly Gray Is the… Outsider?

3 Replies

The most interesting race in the August primary is the Democratic contest for lieutenant governor. Three candidates have already filed: former LG Molly Gray, Democratic operative and Peter Welch staffer Ryan McLaren, and Esther Charlestin, 2024’s sacrificial la — ahem, Democratic candidate for governor. Charlestin, with all due respect, we can dismiss with gratitude for her willingness to serve. This is a race of two well-connected Dems, Gray and McLaren.

Gray was first out of the gate with a truly impressive haul of endorsements including 38 sitting lawmakers and a bunch of high-profile formers like Howard Dean and Kitty Toll.

This week, McLaren formally launched his bid at an Essex restaurant featuring what his campaign called “a packed venue” including “enthusiastic supporters, community leaders, and organizers from across Vermont.” The campaign’s press release boasted its own truly impressive endorser list: former treasurer Beth Pearce, former secretary of state Jim Condos, former LG David Zuckerman*, former House speakers Mitzi Johnson and Shap Smith, and an undisclosed “dozens of current and former members of the Vermont Legislature.” (The release also claimed endorsements from “hundreds of other community leaders,” but McLaren’s campaign website does not offer a list of endorsers.)

*Which ought to end the persistent speculation that Zuckerman will run for something in 2026. I honestly don’t think he will. He’s certainly not making another bid for Vermont’s own bucket of warm piss.

A couple of notes on the press release before I go on. One of those addressing the crowd was Kathryn Becker Van Haste, described as a “veteran Congressional aide and Senate campaign manager,” pointedly not described as a longtime aide to Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. Seems an odd omission considering Bernie’s popularity, but maybe hee didn’t want his name brandished at a Democratic event.

Then there was this unintentional laugh line from Van Haste: “We need someone who doesn’t just want the title, but wants to do the work.” Uh, well, about that. The office of lieutenant governor, with all due respect, is pretty much all title and no work. The LG presides over the state Senate, but can only have an impact on “the work” beyond gavel-banging if allowed to do so by Senate leadership.

But I digress. (Always play to your strengths.)

Continue reading →

I Think This Is the Final Nail in the “Pieciak for Governor 2026” Coffin

Leave a reply

Were you still holding out hope that the very popular Treasurer Mike Pieciak might make a run for governor, becoming the most credible Phil Scott challenger since, I’d say, Sue Minter? (Obligatory clarification: Each Democratic nominee has been worthy, but none have had the resources or unified party support needed to mount a serious challenge to Scott.)

Well, I think you can kiss that little spark goodbye. Because his advisor slash campaign consultant Natalie Silver, one of the most accomplished Democratic operatives of recent years, has jumped off the Mikey Train. She went on some sociopath’s social media platform to announce she’s been hired as campaign manager for Maura Sullivan, a candidate for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s first Congressional district. That seat is currently held by Dem Chris Pappas, who’s running for U.S. Senate.

Silver’s history in brief: She was TJ Donovan’s top aide during most of his stint as attorney general. Since then, she’s worked for then-congressman Peter Welch and managed Becca Balint’s very successful campaign to succeed Welch. In short, she knows how to pick winners or help create them. Silver continued to work for Balint until late 2024, when she started showing up on Pieciak’s campaign finance reports as a consultant.

It was a bit of a curious move. Balint had a safe seat in Congress and the inside track to move up to the Senate whenever the next opening occurred. To me there was only one explanation for switching to Pieciak, who can keep on being Treasurer as long as he wants: She expected him to run for governor and wanted to lead the charge.

Pure speculation on my part, but you can see the reasoning.

Under Silver’s stewardship, Pieciak was far more publicly and politically active than was required for a Treasurer with no discernible Republican opposition. He routinely raised a lot more money than any other Democratic statewide. Which again, seemed to signal a run for higher office.

And now Silver is gone. My take: if Pieciak were running for governor this year, she would have welcomed the challenge. If he’s gonna wait for Phil Scott to die or retire, well, Silver’s not playing that game.

So, who wants to run for governor? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

Turns Out, Lawmaking is Hard

1 Reply

Vermont Sen. Larry Hart, Sr. has become the second rookie Republican state senator to tender his resignation less than a year after voters chose him to represent their interests. Hart’s reasons are less dramatic than Sam Douglass’, but his resignation letter reveals him to be one more Republican who couldn’t handle the reality of life in a legislative body.

In his resignation letter, Hart referenced “the loss of my daughter and grandchild to addiction” as motivation for his candidacy. He took office hoping to “help with substance use addiction legislation among many other goals I outlined in my Senate race,” but he’d found that “it became too difficult for me to accomplish any major goals in my first session.”

I do not question his motives for running or the depth of his personal loss, but c’mon, really? A freshman lawmaker had trouble accomplishing “major goals” in his first go-round? Join the club, man.

Continue reading →

Well, of Course It Was “a Change of Posture”

4 Replies

Gov. Phil Scott made a move this week that promises to pay off big time in purely political terms. If it actually accomplishes anything in the real world, that’ll be a bonus.

After insisting for weeks that his administration wasn’t making any plans to help the city of Burlington with its intertwined problems of homelessness, substance use, public safety, and perceptions of the city’s health, Scott announced at his Wednesday press conference that his administration is holding meetings with various Queen City stakeholders with an eye toward unveiling just such a plan “over the next couple of weeks.”

Vermont Public’s Peter Hirschfeld asked if this wasn’t “a change in posture” for Scott and his team. The governor replied that “maybe the perception” of his posture had changed, but the posture itself remained the same.

Which is obvious bullshit, but did you really expect him to openly acknowledge “a change in posture”? Of course not.

I mean, look. A few weeks ago he was brushing aside a reporter’s description of Burlington as “the economic engine of the state” and couldn’t recall the last time he walked down Church Street. Last fall, when his administration brought its dog-and-pony Capital for a Day to Chittenden County, the governor attended some events in the suburbs but skipped the ones in Burlington. And now he’s holding a series of summits with city luminaries? Yeah, that’s a change in posture and a pretty dramatic one.

Setting aside that bit of casual mendacity, it’s a really smart move. And it positions him to pull off a masterstroke that will cement his reputation as a practical centrist. Especially to the Burlington area’s donor class. You know, the Barons.

Continue reading →