Tag Archives: Becca Balint

Phil Scott Slides Below 50%, John Rodgers Is in Trouble, and Other Notes from a New UNH Poll

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After months of essentially ignoring the contested statewide primary races, our media outlets are suddenly starting to pay attention. It’s as if somebody glanced at a calendar and realized the primary is less than three weeks away, wow, we’d better get on the stick.

I mean, a story posted this week by Vermont Public termed the primary “sleepy,” to which I say, well, whose fault is that? The Democratic candidates for governor and lieutenant governor have been working their asses off, traveling around the state, speaking to anyone who will invite them, and fundraising at a robust pace. They’ve been doing their part; it’s the media that have, until now, made this a “sleepy” primary by paying it little attention.

Enough ranting, let’s get to business. The University of New Hampshire Research Center has published another poll on Vermont politics, and the basic throughline is a gradual cementing of previously seen trends. But there are some notable results, such as a drop below 50% approval for our legendarily popular Gov. Phil Scott. In a June survey, Scott had fallen from his accustomed perch in the low to mid 60s down to 51%. (He was at 60% as recently as last fall.) Now he’s at 48%, with 43% disapproving and 8% expressing no opinion. What’s more, the ranks of the “Strongly” disapproving rose from 15% to 20%. Fresh dents in the Teflon?

There’s more in the gubernatorial numbers but first I want to hit the LG results, which show incumbent Republican John Rodgers in serious trouble. In hypothetical matchups, Rodgers loses to any of the three Democrats in the race — including Esther Charlestin. And he seems to be falling further behind. Another thing: on the gambling racket prediction marketplace Kalshi, for what it’s worth, 71% of the wagers are on the Democrats taking back the ol’ bucket of warm piss. (Fascinating Kalshi note: “Republican” held a 60-40 edge until July 3, when “Republican” took a sudden plunge and “Democrat” surged. The market has stayed essentially the same since then.) (Humbling Kalshi note: Bets on the LG race total less than $14,000, while bets on “LeBron James Next Team” are more than $214,000,000.)

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Hey, We’ve Got a New Poll and… Phil Scott is Vulnerable??

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Speaking from experience, one of the biggest mistakes political pundits can make is writing political obituaries for Gov. Phil Scott. He is the grand champeen of Vermont politicians, having gone undefeated since his original election to the state Senate way back in 2000. If he wins re-election in November, he will have done what no other Vermonter has managed: winning six gubernatorial elections. He’s a couple years shy of Howard Dean’s record tenancy in the corner office, but Dean first became governor upon the death of Dick Snelling. He was elected governor “only” five times.

Still, a new opinion poll brings some bad news for Scott. He remains the overwhelming favorite to go where no pol has gone before, but the bloom is coming off the rose. Storm clouds can be seen on the distant horizon. There are perceptible dents in his previously spotless Teflon coat. The tires are showing signs of wear.

Enough half-baked analogies. Since there are no polling organizations in Vermont, we have to settle for this offering from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. There are a bunch of interesting numbers to be found, but let’s start with the bloom and the clouds and the dents and the tires.

Scott’s favorability rating, whose customary habitat is in the stratosphere, now sits uncomfortably close to 50%. In matchups with relatively little-known Democratic opponents, he comes nowhere near a majority. And only one-third of Vermonters think the state is headed in the right direction.

And now, the details.

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We’re About to Get a Good Read on How Crazy the Vermont Republican Party Is

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Sad to say, but we’ve arrived at the point where Scary Eagle Man is the only sensible choice.

That’s because Gerald Malloy is running for the Republican Congressional nomination against hyper-manly-man Mark Coester, seen here in an AI-generated video purportedly wagging his finger in U.S. Rep. Becca Balint’s face. I’d dare him to try that in real life. He’d find out just how scrappy that little dyke can be.

And if the Republican primary electorate chooses Coester over Malloy, then we’ll know for sure that Gov. Phil Scott’s version of Republicanism is well and truly dead. Because if there was any doubt about whether Coester is a certified far-right whack job [Narrator: “There wasn’t“], he removed it in one brief conversation with Seven Days’ Kevin McCallum.

In said conversation, he addressed McCallum as a “libtard fuck,” and later added this gem: “These commie fucks in Vermont pass whatever garbage fuckin’ laws they want to. They can do what and they can kiss my ass…”

As a loyal member of the Vermont Commie Fucks Club, let me say I am honored to be a target of Mr. Coester’s spittle-flecked outburst. (Disclosure: I’m just guessing about the spittle, but I think I’m on safe ground.)

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So… Molly Gray Is the… Outsider?

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The most interesting race in the August primary is the Democratic contest for lieutenant governor. Three candidates have already filed: former LG Molly Gray, Democratic operative and Peter Welch staffer Ryan McLaren, and Esther Charlestin, 2024’s sacrificial la — ahem, Democratic candidate for governor. Charlestin, with all due respect, we can dismiss with gratitude for her willingness to serve. This is a race of two well-connected Dems, Gray and McLaren.

Gray was first out of the gate with a truly impressive haul of endorsements including 38 sitting lawmakers and a bunch of high-profile formers like Howard Dean and Kitty Toll.

This week, McLaren formally launched his bid at an Essex restaurant featuring what his campaign called “a packed venue” including “enthusiastic supporters, community leaders, and organizers from across Vermont.” The campaign’s press release boasted its own truly impressive endorser list: former treasurer Beth Pearce, former secretary of state Jim Condos, former LG David Zuckerman*, former House speakers Mitzi Johnson and Shap Smith, and an undisclosed “dozens of current and former members of the Vermont Legislature.” (The release also claimed endorsements from “hundreds of other community leaders,” but McLaren’s campaign website does not offer a list of endorsers.)

*Which ought to end the persistent speculation that Zuckerman will run for something in 2026. I honestly don’t think he will. He’s certainly not making another bid for Vermont’s own bucket of warm piss.

A couple of notes on the press release before I go on. One of those addressing the crowd was Kathryn Becker Van Haste, described as a “veteran Congressional aide and Senate campaign manager,” pointedly not described as a longtime aide to Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. Seems an odd omission considering Bernie’s popularity, but maybe hee didn’t want his name brandished at a Democratic event.

Then there was this unintentional laugh line from Van Haste: “We need someone who doesn’t just want the title, but wants to do the work.” Uh, well, about that. The office of lieutenant governor, with all due respect, is pretty much all title and no work. The LG presides over the state Senate, but can only have an impact on “the work” beyond gavel-banging if allowed to do so by Senate leadership.

But I digress. (Always play to your strengths.)

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I Think This Is the Final Nail in the “Pieciak for Governor 2026” Coffin

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Were you still holding out hope that the very popular Treasurer Mike Pieciak might make a run for governor, becoming the most credible Phil Scott challenger since, I’d say, Sue Minter? (Obligatory clarification: Each Democratic nominee has been worthy, but none have had the resources or unified party support needed to mount a serious challenge to Scott.)

Well, I think you can kiss that little spark goodbye. Because his advisor slash campaign consultant Natalie Silver, one of the most accomplished Democratic operatives of recent years, has jumped off the Mikey Train. She went on some sociopath’s social media platform to announce she’s been hired as campaign manager for Maura Sullivan, a candidate for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s first Congressional district. That seat is currently held by Dem Chris Pappas, who’s running for U.S. Senate.

Silver’s history in brief: She was TJ Donovan’s top aide during most of his stint as attorney general. Since then, she’s worked for then-congressman Peter Welch and managed Becca Balint’s very successful campaign to succeed Welch. In short, she knows how to pick winners or help create them. Silver continued to work for Balint until late 2024, when she started showing up on Pieciak’s campaign finance reports as a consultant.

It was a bit of a curious move. Balint had a safe seat in Congress and the inside track to move up to the Senate whenever the next opening occurred. To me there was only one explanation for switching to Pieciak, who can keep on being Treasurer as long as he wants: She expected him to run for governor and wanted to lead the charge.

Pure speculation on my part, but you can see the reasoning.

Under Silver’s stewardship, Pieciak was far more publicly and politically active than was required for a Treasurer with no discernible Republican opposition. He routinely raised a lot more money than any other Democratic statewide. Which again, seemed to signal a run for higher office.

And now Silver is gone. My take: if Pieciak were running for governor this year, she would have welcomed the challenge. If he’s gonna wait for Phil Scott to die or retire, well, Silver’s not playing that game.

So, who wants to run for governor? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

Turns Out, Lawmaking is Hard

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Vermont Sen. Larry Hart, Sr. has become the second rookie Republican state senator to tender his resignation less than a year after voters chose him to represent their interests. Hart’s reasons are less dramatic than Sam Douglass’, but his resignation letter reveals him to be one more Republican who couldn’t handle the reality of life in a legislative body.

In his resignation letter, Hart referenced “the loss of my daughter and grandchild to addiction” as motivation for his candidacy. He took office hoping to “help with substance use addiction legislation among many other goals I outlined in my Senate race,” but he’d found that “it became too difficult for me to accomplish any major goals in my first session.”

I do not question his motives for running or the depth of his personal loss, but c’mon, really? A freshman lawmaker had trouble accomplishing “major goals” in his first go-round? Join the club, man.

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Well, of Course It Was “a Change of Posture”

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Gov. Phil Scott made a move this week that promises to pay off big time in purely political terms. If it actually accomplishes anything in the real world, that’ll be a bonus.

After insisting for weeks that his administration wasn’t making any plans to help the city of Burlington with its intertwined problems of homelessness, substance use, public safety, and perceptions of the city’s health, Scott announced at his Wednesday press conference that his administration is holding meetings with various Queen City stakeholders with an eye toward unveiling just such a plan “over the next couple of weeks.”

Vermont Public’s Peter Hirschfeld asked if this wasn’t “a change in posture” for Scott and his team. The governor replied that “maybe the perception” of his posture had changed, but the posture itself remained the same.

Which is obvious bullshit, but did you really expect him to openly acknowledge “a change in posture”? Of course not.

I mean, look. A few weeks ago he was brushing aside a reporter’s description of Burlington as “the economic engine of the state” and couldn’t recall the last time he walked down Church Street. Last fall, when his administration brought its dog-and-pony Capital for a Day to Chittenden County, the governor attended some events in the suburbs but skipped the ones in Burlington. And now he’s holding a series of summits with city luminaries? Yeah, that’s a change in posture and a pretty dramatic one.

Setting aside that bit of casual mendacity, it’s a really smart move. And it positions him to pull off a masterstroke that will cement his reputation as a practical centrist. Especially to the Burlington area’s donor class. You know, the Barons.

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News You Should View: We Need Our Local Weeklies

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A whole bunch of community journalism in this week’s media roundup, which is great to see. No matter how strong our statewide outlets are (Narrator: They aren’t), our local weeklies are a vital link in the chain. They provide on-the-ground news and information that no one else will. Got some great stories from the local press to tell you about, but first let’s dip a toe into community access television, shall we?

Becca Balint didn’t have to do this. U.S. Rep. Becca Balint did a half-hour interview with All Things LGBTQ, a weekly news/interview show that airs on community access television outlets around the state (and is posted on YouTube). The interview is a couple weeks old, but (a) I only saw it last week and (b) it’s well worth your time. Balint talks about maintaining sanity in Trump’s Washington, the importance of reading books, and even performs a song. Our Congresscritters have plenty of fish to fry, and Balint didn’t have to take time for community access TV, but I’m glad she did.

A grassroots look at the Copley closure. Last Friday evening, Copley Hospital in Morrisville announced it would close its birthing center. I have decidedly mixed feelings about the move — we’re going to see cuts in our community hospitals, and some will be painful — but it’s a real sign of cowardice to announce it after hours on a Friday. Which just meant that ace News & Citizen reporter Aaron Calvin had to give up part of his weekend to turn out a report on the decision. The story was covered by several larger outlets, but only a local paper will focus on what the move will mean for the community it serves.

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Oh No! The Scrappy Little Dyke Said a Bad Word!

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I really wish that U.S. Rep. Becca Balint had said something short, sweet, and sacrilegious when VTDigger called to ask her about her recent deployment of the word “ass” in a public setting. I really wish she hadn’t taken the politic route and apologized.

Honestly, I don’t know why Digger even pursued this story. Well, that’s not true. I do know. It’s low-hanging fruit. But sometimes you need to leave that apple on the tree. Seriously, we’re talking about an organization that, so I’ve been told, hasn’t bothered to report on Lt. Gov. John Rodgers being a right royal asshat to his small-town neighbors, threatening to close access to a public road and take his town to court if they don’t accede to his wishes, because Digger doesn’t have the capacity.

And yet they had the capacity to publish a story on this ridiculous, trumped-up “controversy.” Ugh.

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Doing Something.

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Today I wrote an email to U.S. Rep. Becca Balint thanking her for introducing a bill to protect the health care rights of transgender people. She introduced the Transgender Health Care Access Act a while ago and it’s not going to get anywhere in a Republican Congress, but her public advocacy is important — and encouraging — when trans folk are under attack from their own damn government. And it’s important to let our elected representatives know when they’re fighting the good fight.