Monthly Archives: July 2026

A Curious Gathering of Lobbyists in a State Senate Primary

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I’ve spent too much time in recent days going over campaign finance reports for all the races for state Senate. Well, all but Richard Westman’s unopposed bid for a [checks notes] twenty-fourth consecutive term in the Legislature. I think I’m safe in skipping that one.

There’s a lot to report, and it’ll be coming your way very soon. But here’s a little something I discovered that’s worth a moment of your time. It’s fairly small potatoes, but it might develop into something more.

The Senate race in the Orange district features incumbent Republican John Benson making his first bid for a full term (he was appointed in January to replace Larry Hart, Sr., who found out that lawmaking is hard work) and two Democratic hopefuls: State Rep. Monique Priestley and retired Department of Labor staffer Rose Lucenti. The seat is historically Democratic; it flipped Republican in the 2024 wave election, so the Democratic nominee will have a decent shot at unflipping it.

Priestley is doing just fine, thanks. She entered the cycle with $6,400 in the bank and proceeded to raise a healthy $23,000. She’s spent a bit more than $6,000, so she entered July with roughly $23,000 in cash on hand. That’s already enough money to compete in a mostly rural district.

Where things get a little intriguing is in Lucenti’s latest report.

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The Money Race Is, As They Say, Heating Up. In Some Precincts, Anyway.

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The first of July marked the most important pre-primary campaign finance deadline for Vermont candidates. The occasion was marked by a depressing lack of coverage in our respectable media. VTDigger ran a boilerplate piece that reported a bunch of numbers but offered little insight. Seven Days and Vermont Public didn’t do anything, as far as I can tell. Our daily papers are a wasteland for political coverage and I rarely watch local TV news, which is largely an exercise in cranking out enough easy content to space out the advertising.

Which is a damn shame because there are definite points of interest, and because this is the most meaningful pre-primary snapshot of the money races. The previous deadline of March 15 was so early that some major candidates (Aly Richards, for instance) had yet to toss their metaphorical hats in the ring. The next deadline of August 1 is very close to primary day, so whatever might be revealed in those reports won’t have much of a chance to sink in.

Altough that’s kind of a moot point since the media is largely ignoring campaign finance altogether. If there was a nuclear revelation to be found, chances are nobody would notice and it would go unreported.

So let’s get to the July 1 numbers and what they tell us about Campaign 2026.

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Hey, We’ve Got a New Poll and… Phil Scott is Vulnerable??

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Speaking from experience, one of the biggest mistakes political pundits can make is writing political obituaries for Gov. Phil Scott. He is the grand champeen of Vermont politicians, having gone undefeated since his original election to the state Senate way back in 2000. If he wins re-election in November, he will have done what no other Vermonter has managed: winning six gubernatorial elections. He’s a couple years shy of Howard Dean’s record tenancy in the corner office, but Dean first became governor upon the death of Dick Snelling. He was elected governor “only” five times.

Still, a new opinion poll brings some bad news for Scott. He remains the overwhelming favorite to go where no pol has gone before, but the bloom is coming off the rose. Storm clouds can be seen on the distant horizon. There are perceptible dents in his previously spotless Teflon coat. The tires are showing signs of wear.

Enough half-baked analogies. Since there are no polling organizations in Vermont, we have to settle for this offering from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. There are a bunch of interesting numbers to be found, but let’s start with the bloom and the clouds and the dents and the tires.

Scott’s favorability rating, whose customary habitat is in the stratosphere, now sits uncomfortably close to 50%. In matchups with relatively little-known Democratic opponents, he comes nowhere near a majority. And only one-third of Vermonters think the state is headed in the right direction.

And now, the details.

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