Campaign Finance Pre-Election Final: ONE MEEEEEELLION DOLLARS

Well, the last pre-election campaign finance deadline has come and gone, and the big news is that the unknown underdog newbie pick-your-own-disparaging-descriptor Amanda Janoo has cleared seven figures in total fundraising.

That’s right, we’re talking Dr. Evil money. Janoo continued her late-stage sprint with an impressive haul of $170,000 in the last 15 days, for a grand total of $1,057,389.86 in donations.

Gov. Phil Scott, the invincible incumbent, has raised a much less impressive $720,000 including $130,000 in the most recent period. Of course, he entered the campaign with a hefty stash remaining from his 2024 walkover win, so he’s been able to spend $804,000 in all.

But still, the bottom line is this: Amanda Janoo has outraised and outspent Phil Scott for the entire campaign and in the most recent reporting period, covering the home stretch of the campaign. She’s received gifts from many more individuals than Scott, whose campaign has depended heavily on four-figure donations from the usual suspects in the business community. In her latest filing, Janoo reported receiving 26% of her total take in gifts of $100 or less. Scott, the alleged man o’ the people, got only 5% of his total in donations of $100 or less. (26% may seem low, but it’s actually a very respectable number. Most politicians don’t get that much from small donors.)

Now, the governor is also benefiting greatly from the ONE MEEEEELLION DOLLARS that’s been pumped into Vermont by the Republican Governors Association, whose top benefactors include one Elon Musk. Scott ain’t exactly fighting with one hand tied behind his back. He is, in fact, fighting with a big bruiser of a heavyweight right by his side, pummeling away at Janoo’s reputation while the governor does his best Sergeant Schulz impersonation.

Janoo has done far better than expected in the money race, especially considering she was all but broke after the primary. Her campaign has been building momentum since early September, and if she doesn’t win, one big reason will be the shortness of our general election season.

Over the last 15 days, Janoo has outspent Scott on mass media $239,000 to $187,000, although again, that doesn’t account for Scott’s massive advantage in RGA money. Janoo spent largely in the digital space ($145,000) with lesser amounts going to TV ($65,000) and good ol’ radio ($29,000). Scott’s expenditures went to TV first ($78,000) followed by digital ads ($50,000), robocalls ($31,000, not at all a sign of desperation), and radio ($26,000).

The Scott campaign also, interestingly, spent $11,000 on polling, kind of a curious thing to do when Election Day is drawing nigh. Are they still trying to figure this thing out, or what?

None of this changes the dynamic of the race, which features a bloom-off-the-rose incumbent against a shockingly strong challenger. Janoo’s enjoyed a consistent fundraising lead over Scott since she caught up in September. The campaign finance filings show that she’s been gaining momentum while Scott is depending on the familiar deep-pocketed elite who’ve been bankrolling him throughout his entire administration. (Obligatory reminder that Scott chose to launch his first run for governor at the annual conference of the Associated General Contractors of Vermont. His base, you might say.) And this is the guy who’s seen as the champion of rural Vermont.

Nothing much new in the race for lieutenant governor, where incumbent Republican John Rodgers continues to play catch-up and Democratic challenger Molly Gray is campaigning like she doesn’t really need to.

In the latest reporting period, Gray raised $34,000 and spent $95,000, including an $82,000 TV ad buy. She had more than enough money in the bank to cover those expenses, and still has $62,000 in cash on hand. Rodgers, meanwhile, raised $67,000 and spent $93,000 in the most recent report including $58,000 in TV ads. He has about $24,000 left in the bank. This champion of regular folks raised $64,000 in large gifts versus only $3,000 in small donations. I’ve said it before, but if regular Vermonters see John Rodgers as their beau ideal, they sure have a funny way of showing their appreciation.

For the entire campaign, Gray has raised $582,000 and spent $521,000, which includes an expensive Democratic primary race. Rodgers’ totals are $436,000 raised and $416,000 spent. Rodgers’ latest expenditures include another $4,500 to sitting Democratic state Rep. Matt Birong, who’s been well paid to serve as Rodgers’ campaign chair.

The latest campaign finance filings suggest that the top two races remain unchanged: Janoo is surprisingly competitive, including financially, and Gray appears headed to a decisive win over Rodgers. The other statewide races are as much of a joke as ever.

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