As I’ve been driving around central Vermont lately, I’ve come across a phenomenon: Homemade signs for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo. Most of them are along state Route 14 between North Montpelier and Hardwick, although one is within the Montpelier city limits.
The signs all feature colorful words on a bright yellow background. I don’t know the story behind these signs and I don’t really care. I just think they’re wonderfully refreshing.
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Well, there it is. The last (I think) pre-election poll in the race for Vermont governor. And yes, that’s Democrat Amanda Janoo holding an eight-point lead over Gov. Phil Scott, comfortably beyond the poll’s margin of error and a tick north of the all-important 50% mark.
The poll comes from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, and must be accompanied by a couple of caveats. First, the UNH results have been more Janoo-friendly* than the single Vermont Public poll or the ongoing efforts of State Navigate. Second, I’m not sure the Center believes its own product. Its report was headlined “Blue Wave Lifts Janoo Over Scott in Vermont?”
*The Center’s latest Maine poll shows Democrat Troy Jackson with a nine-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Either this will be a true wave election, or UNHSC will have some cleaning up to do.
That’s right, they attached a question mark to their own headline. It’s as if they can’t really believe the results of their own work.
Also worth noting, or puzzling over: The survey’s respondents don’t believe it themselves! 62% of all respondents, including 40% of Janoo voters, predict that Scott will win. Which is very close to where the prediction markets are heading. As recently as September 22, 94% of all bets predictions on Kalshi were for Scott. The governor’s share of the Kalshi action is now at 66% and Janoo is at 34%.
An actual apology — one that fulfills the definition of the word — is a rare and precious thing. People who make public apologies, especially politicians, never put their hearts and souls into the task. Instead, it’s something they feel obliged to do, and they do a piss-poor job of it.
Take Gov. Phil Scott, who made an unforced error during the third and final debate of the gubernatorial campaign, broadcast on WCAX-TV and now viewable online. Scott was asked a question about education funding. His response included an obvious falsehood about the Winooski school district. His general point was that the quality of public education is too variable and that every student deserves equal opportunity. His answer also, as is his wont, pitted rural Vermont versus its more settled areas.
When you look at the Brigham Decision, it was about equalized education in all parts of the state. They decided to do it by the cost of education, and that’s been hampering some of the rural areas of the state where some have one or two languages being offered, whereas in Winooski and some of the Chittenden County areas, they have 17. That’s not an equal education, and we need to do better.
Well, that would be a troubling disparity if true. But it isn’t, at all. The Winooski school board issued a statement saying that in fact, it only offered courses in one language (French), not 17. The board called Scott’s assertion a “dog whistle” meant to stir up rural Vermonters over alleged “special treatment for a district that looks different from theirs.”
Which, of course, is exactly what it was.
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