If the Soviet Union was, in the words of WInston Churchill, “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” then the re-election campaign of Lt. Gov. John Rodgers is a contradiction wrapped in a paradox inside an irony.

Two things. First, he claims to be “a voice for the working class,” but as previously noted, the vast majority of his money comes from the upper class — primarily from the Burlington area, far from the lives and concerns of the rural Vermonters he claims to represent.

Second, the former Democrat turned Republican leans heavily on bipartisanship, touting his ability to work with all parties. And yet since the August primary, his campaign has focused its energy on attacking his opponent, former lieutenant governor Molly Gray.

And the person who must be held responsible for this turn to the Dark Side is none other than Democratic State Rep. Matt Birong, who feels no apparent qualms about sticking it to a fellow Democrat on the reg.

Birong endorsed Rodgers several weeks ago. He’s not the only Democrat to do so, but he’s one of a few. He is the only Democrat who’s taking paychecks from Rodgers. He showed up on Rodgers’ latest campaign finance report as receiving $7,500 in wages. After I read that, I discovered a piece on Vermont Daily Chronicle announcing that Birong had been named “campaign chairman” for the Rodgers effort, with a remit that includes “campaign strategy” and “messaging.”

Birong formally joined Team Rodgers at the end of August. The anti-Gray drumbeat started before then, but it’s only intensified since Birong took the wheel.

It reeks of desperation. Every available opinion poll shows Gray with a substantial lead, often well over 50%. Rodgers spent $35,000 on polling in September. He hasn’t released the results, but judging by his campaign tactics, his own poll must look as bad as the others.

(Speaking of campaign spending, Rodgers just reported another $40,000 in mass media expenditures including $38,000 in TV ads and $1,900 in print ads with Seven Days. That pretty much shoots his wad; as of October 15, he had less than $50,000 in cash on hand. Unless he’s gotten a sudden, unexpected influx, he’s got $10,000 or less for the remainder of the campaign. Minus whatever else he’s spent since the 15th. Maybe another paycheck to Birong?)

Time for some receipts on my “dirtiest campaign in Vermont” descriptor. (I’m not counting A Stronger Vermont’s attack ads targeting gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo because it’s a purely out-of-state operation. Besides, I don’t think it’s as dirty as Rodgers’ anyway.) In no particular order…

• Rodgers has accused Gray of being a ladder-climber who ran for Congress after one term as LG and would likely seek higher office again if the opportunity presented itself. As if you couldn’t say the same thing about every other politician in the game. I mean, when Gov. Phil Scott retires, Rodgers’ name would be at the top of the Republican list. For that matter, if Scott had decided not to run again this year (and he reportedly gave serious consideration to retirement), do you think Rodgers would have been satisfied to stick with the ol’ bucket of warm piss? Of course not.
• Rodgers ambushed Gray in their first debate with accusations about labor violations at the Gray family farm. Gray did grow up on the farm but has no role in its operation, so it seems like a real stretch to tie her to it. Also, the violations go back a couple of years and the case was settled in January 2025. The farm is now in full compliance. It’s old news.
• Rodgers furthered this line of attack after the debate by noting that the office of Sen. Peter Welch tried to intervene on the farm’s behalf, adding that Molly Gray is a former Welch aide. According to the Vermont Daily Chronicle, state Labor Department records show Welch’s office “became participants in the back-and-forth between farm owner Peter Gray and state and federal officials, at Peter Gray’s request.” But there’s no evidence Molly Gray took any role in the matter, and the Chronicle noted that “It is not uncommon for representatives of senators or House members to sit in as interested observers in a regulatory process.” In short, another nothingburger.
• Social media influencer Morgan Gold has complained that the Rodgers camp used a misleadingly-edited clip of his interview with Gray to accuse her of effectively calling for an end to large-scale dairy farming in Vermont. “We had a really good conversation” with Gray at the Tunbridge World’s Fair, Gold said, and Rodgers “actively and willfully [spread] misinformation” by editing the clip to remove the context of Gray’s remarks — which is that, given changes in the national farm economy, Vermont’s large-scale dairy industry may prove unviable. (Gold also slammed the campaign of Gov. Phil Scott for spreading the misleading video clip.) Gold noted that Rodgers himself agrees with the broader thrust of Gray’s remarks, that Vermont dairy faces a tough road ahead.
• Gray begged out of scheduled joint appearances due to an illness. The Rodgers camp straight-up accused her of lying in order to duck further debates. There’s no basis whatsoever for the charge.

(Gray has responded to the barrage with attacks on Rodgers, but She Didn’t Start the Fire.)

“This is what a campaign does when its back is against the wall,” Gold said. And I agree. Every available measure of the contest shows Gray with a substantial advantage over Rodgers. In addition to campaign finances and the polls, take a look at the prediction markets. On Kalshi, 93% of predictions are on Gray to win, versus only 9% for Rodgers. (I know, that’s 102%, I don’t know how Kalshi arrives at its figures.)

That’s barely better than no-hope Republican H. Brooke Paige. Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas has 92% of the wagers predictions compared to 2% each for Paige and Progressive Rachel Shaw. You know your campaign is down bad if you’re in the same territory as perpetual candidate Paige.

Given the steady drumbeat of bad news, I can see why Rodgers resorted to attacking Gray. He can’t hope to win unless he knocks her off her perch. But he can’t throw mud at his opponent while claiming his dedication to bipartisanship. And Birong, who seems to be on the Paul Ralston political trajectory (Democrat to independent to Republican in all but name), ought to be ashamed.

Hell, he ought to resign his seat in the Legislature.