Another campaign finance deadline has come and gone, and the big news is… there’s not much news. Well, not much new news, anyway. For the top two statewide races, the latest reports follow familiar patterns.
In the gubernatorial campaign, Democrat Amanda Janoo continues to hold a financial edge over Gov. Phil Scott, whose minimal-effort approach either indicates that (1) he’s very confident or (2) he’s lost his fastball after several easy victories. When you look at his fundraising numbers, you realize the last time he really had to work at it was 10 years ago, in 2016.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Molly Gray holds a substantial lead over incumbent Republican John Rodgers, whose campaign would be scraping bottom if not for big checks from a handful of donors and a $20,000 infusion from the state GOP. You know, Rodgers’ campaign signs tout him as “a voice of the working class,” but working Vermonters seem unappreciative. The vast majority of Rodgers’ money has come from Vermont’s upper class, and most of them hail from Chittenden County. Some kind of disconnect there.
The other four statewide races are uncompetitive, as the Republicans put up unknown and severely underfunded candidates against well-known Democrats.
The most recent filing deadline was Thursday, October 15. Reports covered the period between October 1 and October 15. So let’s get to the numbers.
As was the case in September, Janoo raised more money than Scott. During the reporting period, Janoo raised $182,000 to Scott’s $175,000. For the entire campaign, Janoo holds a substantial advantage over Scott — $888,000 to $590,000. But Janoo spent a lot during a closely contested primary. Also, Scott entered the campaign cycle with over $300,000 in cash on hand. And, as you may have heard, his cause has benefited from more than $460,000 in spending on anti-Janoo ads by A Stronger Vermont, a political action committee operated by the Republican Governors Association.
Still, entering the closing weeks of the campaign, Janoo had over 50% more cash on hand than the incumbent, $307,000 to $202,000. In his five previous campaigns for governor, Scott has never been at a financial disadvantage. He is now, and he can’t afford an all-out ad blitz to cement his standing with the voters. The RGA could, but it remains to be seen if it will given the look of the national political landscape.
The money Scott did raise came from the usual suspects: longstanding Republican donors like the Pizzagalli family ($25,180), the Vallees ($10,360), and Scott Milne’s real estate company Masaii Properties ($5,180). Like Rodgers, this hero of working Vermonters gets the bulk of his cash from the upper crust. Out of the $175,000 he raised since October 1, only $8,000 came in gifts of $100 or less.
Janoo, meanwhile, had a much longer list of donors. Her total take of $182,000 included $46,000 in gifts of $100 or less. And as she did in September, she drew generous support across the spectrum of Democratic (and even Progressive) politics. Names in her 10/15 filing include outgoing Auditor Doug Hoffer, former gubernatorial candidates Christine Hallquist and Scudder Parker, former Mr. Everything But Governor Doug Racine, humorist and Motel 6 pitchman Tom Bodett, former lieutenant governor David Zuckerman, and the campaign committees of legislative candidates Nikhil Goyal, Hannah Sessions, Rebecca Holmes, and former lawmaker Katherine Sims.
The Washington and Windham County party committees donated to Janoo’s campaign, as did former lawmakers Tim Jerman, Mike Yantachka, and David Deen. I could go on, but you get the point. Democrats of every stripe and leading Progressives have all donated to Janoo, which is something you couldn’t say for the last four Democratic gubernatorial nominees.
Janoo finally dipped her toe into the mass media market in early October, spending $60,000 on TV ads and $40,000 on digital ads. It’s nice, but it doesn’t come close to matching the combined reach of the Scott campaign and A Stronger Vermont.
The governor has dramatically increased his burn rate since October 1. His October 15 filing included mass media expenditures totaling $235,610: $16,000 on radio, $108,610 on TV, and a rather surprising $111,000 on digital advertising. How 21st Century of you, Mr. Governor.
Since his campaign turned in its October 15 filling, it has reported three more mass media spends totaling $63,000: $13,000 on radio, $20,000 on TV, and $30,000 on digital. Running total: Since October 1, the Scott campaign has spent $298,610 on mass media advertising. That doesn’t exactly scream “confidence.”
Side note: The rise in digital advertising is another blow to our traditional media. Very little money is going to newspapers except in some legislative races, and spending on TV and radio is declining as more ads migrate to digital platforms like YouTube and Facebook.
There’s still time left before Election day, but there’s not much time to (a) raise a lot of money and (b) spend it effectively. And early voting means more and more Vermonters are beyond persuasion with each passing day.
Molly Gray is raising and spending like she knows she’s got it in the bag. She raised a relatively paltry $41,000 since October 1 and spent only $60,000, leaving her with $123,000 in the bank. She did spend $57,051 on TV ads in early October, and another $37,250 reported on October 17. Total so far this month: $94,301.
Rodgers, meanwhile, continues to struggle financially. He raised $75,000 for the period and spent $110,000, leaving him with slightly less than $50,000 in cash on hand. It would have been much worse if not for the $20,000 he got from the Vermont Republican State Committee. Considering how chronically underfunded the Vermont Republican Party is, that $20,000 is a huge outlay. Well, actually, it’s the VRSC’s only expenditure since October 1. And it seems to signal a measure of desperation in the Republican camp.
Otherwise, Rodgers got the bulk of his money from a handful of the folks I call the Barons of Burlington: Ermie Pomerleau, Skip and Denise Vallee, WIlliam Bissonette, and Scott Boardman. Of the $75,000 Rodgers raised so far this month, only $2,209 came in gifts of $100 or less. As I said, the working class has not rallied to their alleged “voice.” And Rodgers’ support from the Barons has waned significantly compared to 2024, when the Barons gave Rodgers dozens of four-figure checks. Not this year. Sad trombone.
On the spending side, Rodgers dropped $70,000 on TV ads. He’ll have a hard time repeating that effort. He also, interestingly, paid outgoing Democratic Rep. Matt Birong $7,500 in “wages.” Smells a bit off. I mean, Birong is leaving the Legislature but he remains a prominent member of House leadership and he chairs a legislative committee.
Necessary caveat: Money is far from the only measure of a campaign’s strength. But aside from a handful of polls, it’s by far the best measure that’s publicly available. The money has told a consistent story since the August primary: Amanda Janoo is surprisingly competitive, and Molly Gray looks like a winner.
