The Republican Governors Association’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, has begun airing its anti-Amanda Janoo attack ads. And I have to admit, they’re subtler and more smartly targeted than I expected. There’s none of the heavy-handed “She’s a communist” stuff or the “weirdly darkened images of Janoo,” that I predicted.
Instead, Janoo is presented as unknown and inexperienced while Gov. Phil Scott is the bipartisan Nice Guy of popular imagination. Janoo is depicted making wide-eyed, slightly out-of-control facial expressions, but the skin tone appears unretouched. I’ve seen the ads at least four times but can’t find them online, so I can’t top this piece with a gurning-Janoo screenshot. Instead, I present the closest available alternative: my favorite picture of the governor with a fake grin on his face. Imagine Janoo making a similar expression and you’ve pretty much got it.
Just to catch up on the numbers, the RGA has dumped $400,000 into A Stronger Vermont. ASV had previously reported spending $160,869 on TV and digital ads; over the weekend, it reported another $13,693 in expenditures attacking Janoo and touting Scott. That’s a total of $174,562 with another $225K awaiting deployment. (Other news from mass media filings: Democratic lite-guv candidate Molly Gray has spent $57,051 on a TV ad blitz.)
The spots follow a familiar attack-ad pattern: The first half focuses on the attackee, while the second half features the PAC’s favored candidate. And the anti-Janoo messages come entirely from fellow Democrats: Two from defeated gubernatorial candidate Aly Richards, one from state Rep. Theresa Wood, and one from lobbyist/functionary Alex MacLean. Bonus points for harvesting quotes from female Democrats, insulating ASV from accusations of misogyny. The quotes describe Janoo as an unknown quantity with no experience of the legislative process. The words were spoken during the primary, of course, but they now make wonderful fodder for the RGA.
The ads then turn to the incumbent, seen here as Governor Nice Guy posing with real Vermonters, (IIRC) dogs and pickup trucks, with the word “bipartisan” getting a real workout. Not mentioned: Scott’s all-time record for gubernatorial vetoes, at least count three times as many vetoes as the runner-up, Howard Dean. You’d think a real bipartisan would find ways to work with the other side rather than depend on his very own neutron bomb, but that’s now how Phil rolls.
The ads are clearly targeted at the undecided voters who will decide the winner. Every available poll shows neither candidate close to a majority, and they also show that Scott’s approval rating has slipped into the 40s. To win a sixth term, he has to convince former supporters to come back home. From a political action committee’s point of view, the best tactic is to sow doubt about the challenger. This ad campaign strikes me as effective. It’s one more obstacle that Janoo will have to overcome in her long-odds bid to defeat Phil Scott. So far, she’s defied the odds at every step. We’ll see if she can keep it up.
The problem doesn’t change. The problem is that many Democrats get gratification from supporting Phil Scott. Which is perverse, all things considered, but this is not about logic (usually the case). If he wins, it will be because, in the heat of the moment and the privacy of the voting booth, they will do what they’ve done several times before.
There is no reasoning with these people.
The ads against Janoo are also all over YouTube. I’ve turned on a couple documentaries and there they are, loud and clear, the smiling nice guy. I, too, hope she can survive this blitz, that Vermonters will see it for what it is, and, also understand where the money is coming from and who is giving it and why, but the odds are not in her favor. I wish we could get what you’ve written here onto the television screens so that Vermonters sitting there in front of it could see what’s going on. It’s a wish, I know….
Sadly, I also agree that the Vt democratic voters will generally (not specifically) do what they’ve always done in the last ten years and bring Scott back in again.
Like any good magician Scott’s grand illusion worked really well for many years. But the problem with illusions is they only last so long. The more you watch, the more you begin to notice the misdirection and the sleight of hand – the truth is revealed and the magic ends. He will always be a “nice guy” but he should no longer be our governor.
Amanda Janoo is correct when she says – “We deserve more than managed decline.”
She is incredibly smart. She is kind. She is bold. She is brave. She is running for us, not for herself. She has worked with many governments. She shows up. She leads.
I don’t think, for one second, she will have any problem figuring out how to work WITH the legislature and FOR us. Good governing is what we need. We will get just that from Amanda Janoo.
I’m voting for her. I hope you do too.