Well, it just got late early out there.

For one thing, city and town clerk’s offices are being flooded by early ballots. For another, candidates in our most competitive races are spending whatever money they have on hand.

Ballot returns seem to have shot up in the last week or so. The latest tally: as of today (October 21), Vermont voters have submitted 79,651 ballots. Judging by past turnouts in non-presidential years, it’s likely that close to 30% of all votes have already been cast.

(Explainer: Turnout is always higher in presidential years. Over the last two decades, turnout in presidential years has averaged 339,000 in Vermont. When the presidency isn’t on the line, average turnout has been 253,000. But in recent years, turnout has been higher still; in 2022 it was 291,955. Generally speaking, voter participation has jumped since the Covid pandemic and the state started mailing ballots to every registered voter. I think it’s safe to assume our turnout will be less than 300,000 but not much less. Which would make 79,651 about 28% or so of the projected total.)

Candidates are aware that time’s running out. The mass media spending reports are pouring into the Secretary of State’s office, the vast majority from legislative candidates sending postcards and such. The races at the top of the ticket show what happens when those candidates don’t ahve a lot of money to burn.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amanda Janoo has continued to boost her spending, which remains very modest by normal standards. Her campaign has submitted two mass media reports in the last two days, totaling $95,516 in spending. That includes $65,000 in television advertising, $20,516 for good old-fashioned radio, and $10,000 for newfangled digital. That’s on top of $100,000 in media spends reported in her October 15 campaign finance report, $60,000 for TV and $40,000 for digital.

In all, it’s an impressive investment, but she still has room to do more. As of October 15, Janoo had a little more than $300,000 in the bank. I’d expect to see more filings from Team Janoo in the very near future.

Gov. Phil Scott continued his frantic pace of media buys, pouring another $20,000 into digital ads. That pushes his October total of mass media expenditures to nearly $320,000. His biggest ad investment this month ($131,000) is in the digital space, which is… interesting.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democratic challenger Molly Gray is spending like a candidate who believes she’s got it in the bag: her campaign has yet to submit any mass media filings since October 15. Incumbent John Rodgers, meanwhile, has very little to spend. He reported just under $40,000 in media buys earlier this week, and as of October 15 he only had about $50,000 in the bank. And he’s spending like a candidate who’s digging through the sofa cushions for loose change; he reported zero mass media filings between October 7 and 20, which means he can’t afford a home-stretch push.

The other statewide races are no surprise at all. None of the heavily-favored Democrats are spending much, and their Republican challengers have never had enough money to run a meaningful statewide campaign. It’s sad, and unhealthy for democracy, when one of the two biggest parties consistently fails to nominate viable candidates, but it’s been years since any Republican mounted a credible campaign for attorney general, auditor, secretary of state, or treasurer. Nice job security for those who hold the office, but we’d be better off if Vermont Republicans were up to the task of being a “major party.”

Confession time. It’s been a very busy few days around home, and I managed to forget that the long-awaited first gubernatorial debate was tonight on Vermont Public. I tuned in around 7:30 but didn’t stay with it because I wanted to watch it from the beginning. I will watch and report as soon as I can. For those like me, the debate can be viewed on YouTube.