Now There’s No Denying We Have a Real Race on Our Hands

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And there it is: A major ad buy from the Republican Governors Association, which hasn’t bothered to spend real money in Vermont since 2020. The RGA’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, just reported spending $160,869 for a blitz of ads mentioning Gov. Phil Scott and his Democratic opponent Amanda Janoo.

Be prepared for an onslaught of attack ads featuring ominous music and weirdly darkened images of Janoo. Because this is only the first step in the plan: The RGA has donated a total of $400,000 to A Stronger Vermont, so there’s plenty of money in the bank for more negative advertising.

We’ve seen the polls showing the most competitive gubernatorial race in a decade. We’ve seen the Scott campaign spend more than $210,000 in the past two weeks on TV and digital ads. And now, here comes the RGA stomping its way into our little corner of the world.

Yep, Phil Scott is no longer safe. He knows it, and national Republicans know it.

This is doubly noteworthy because Republicans are fighting political fires across the country, including quite a few races previously thought to be safely red. They are battling to preserve slim majorities in Congress. And now they’re dumping money into propping up The Nation’s Most Popular Governor?

Granted, $400,000 is pocket change for the RGA. But until now, A Stronger Vermont had spent a grand total of $303.63 in the current two-year cycle. It hasn’t spent significant amounts since 2020, and it’s now got enough cash to surpass that year’s outlay. Total expenditures for A Stronger Vermont during the Scott era:

  • 2024: $36,188.96 (Democratic opponent Esther Charlestin)
  • 2022: $50,333.35 (Brenda Siegel)
  • 2020: $218,717.40 (David Zuckerman)
  • 2018: $826,365,84 (Christine Hallquist)
  • 2016: $3,019,000 (Sue Minter)

We’re not going to see Minter levels of RGA spending; it’s too late for that. But they’re clearly planning to spend more in Vermont than they have since 2018.

The good news for Janoo: She’s running a serious campaign that could actually win. The bad news: She’ll have to fight against a flood of negative campaigning from the forces backing Governor Nice Guy.

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