Tag Archives: A Stronger Vermont

The RGA Doubles Up — CORRECTED

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Update: Turns out I got this wrong. The RGA’s total contribution to A Stronger Vermont is $400,000 not $800,000. I will explain two paragraphs below.

The Republican Governors Association continues to pour money into Vermont. Today the RGA’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, reported spending another $252,826.90 on TV and digital advertising in support of Gov. Phil Scott and against Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. (Mass media expenditures must be reported to the state within 24 hours when an election is 45 or fewer days away.) That’s on top of previously reported spending of $174,562, for a grand total of $427,388.90 — all of it deployed in the last five days.

If you’ve been paying close attention, you might recall that the RGA devoted $400,000 to help ASV defend Scott against his toughest electoral challenge in a decade, and that ASV has now overshot that total. Well, never fear, because the RGA has reported giving ASV another $400,000. I think we can expect that money to be spent quickly, with more likely on the way.

CORRECTION. In recent days A Stronger Vermont submitted two mass media spending reports. Each reported a $400,000 contribution from the RGA. But A Stronger Vermont’s latest campaign finance filing reports only a single $400,000 gift from the RGA. It’s likely that more money will flow because ASV has spent a total of $463,000 and the RGA is its sole benefactor. I’m leaving the post here, but my inferences and conclusions were incorrect.

A Stronger Vermont has now spent more this year than in any campaign since 2018. It spent a total of $218,717.40 in 2020 to help defeat David Zuckerman. If ASV spends its entire $800,000 in RGA funds and goes anywhere beyond that, it will eclipse the $826,365.84 spent in 2018 against Christine Hallquist.

This is remarkable stuff, given that Janoo is at a substantial disadvantage in name recognition and has never before sought public office. In a year when Republicans are fighting desperately to stave off a national Democratic wave, they are committing more and more money to defend the guy who used to be, not that long ago, America’s most popular governor. And some thought this was going to be a sleepy election season.

The RGA Launches a Surprisingly Subtle Janoo Attack Ad

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The Republican Governors Association’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, has begun airing its anti-Amanda Janoo attack ads. And I have to admit, they’re subtler and more smartly targeted than I expected. There’s none of the heavy-handed “She’s a communist” stuff or the “weirdly darkened images of Janoo,” that I predicted.

Instead, Janoo is presented as unknown and inexperienced while Gov. Phil Scott is the bipartisan Nice Guy of popular imagination. Janoo is depicted making wide-eyed, slightly out-of-control facial expressions, but the skin tone appears unretouched. I’ve seen the ads at least four times but can’t find them online, so I can’t top this piece with a gurning-Janoo screenshot. Instead, I present the closest available alternative: my favorite picture of the governor with a fake grin on his face. Imagine Janoo making a similar expression and you’ve pretty much got it.

Just to catch up on the numbers, the RGA has dumped $400,000 into A Stronger Vermont. ASV had previously reported spending $160,869 on TV and digital ads; over the weekend, it reported another $13,693 in expenditures attacking Janoo and touting Scott. That’s a total of $174,562 with another $225K awaiting deployment. (Other news from mass media filings: Democratic lite-guv candidate Molly Gray has spent $57,051 on a TV ad blitz.)

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Now There’s No Denying We Have a Real Race on Our Hands

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And there it is: A major ad buy from the Republican Governors Association, which hasn’t bothered to spend real money in Vermont since 2020. The RGA’s local outlet, A Stronger Vermont, just reported spending $160,869 for a blitz of ads mentioning Gov. Phil Scott and his Democratic opponent Amanda Janoo.

Be prepared for an onslaught of attack ads featuring ominous music and weirdly darkened images of Janoo. Because this is only the first step in the plan: The RGA has donated a total of $400,000 to A Stronger Vermont, so there’s plenty of money in the bank for more negative advertising.

We’ve seen the polls showing the most competitive gubernatorial race in a decade. We’ve seen the Scott campaign spend more than $210,000 in the past two weeks on TV and digital ads. And now, here comes the RGA stomping its way into our little corner of the world.

Yep, Phil Scott is no longer safe. He knows it, and national Republicans know it.

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Looks Like Maybe We Got Ourselves a Race

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There were no competitive primaries for governor last month, but there were definite signs that business is picking up. Gov. Phil Scott and challenger Brenda Siegel increased their fundraising from their previous very modest levels. In fact, it seems as though Scott actually began putting some effort into it last month, which is something he famously doesn’t like to do. Conventional wisdom has it that Scott will win in a walk. Do the August numbers suggest he’s getting a bit concerned about Siegel?

As of July 31, Scott had raised a total of $49,989. In August alone he upped that to $54,580, bringing his campaign total north of $100,000. He also has a $272,000 surplus from previous campaigns, so he’s not cash-poor by any means.

Siegel, meanwhile, took in $44,259 in August, which made it her best month to date. She’s raised a total of $103,195, a few thousand less than Scott. And of course, she doesn’t have a handy-dandy surplus to fall back on.

There are a couple of notes that make Siegel’s performance better than the sheer total. First, she had a burst of fundraising in the last few days of the month. If that momentum carries forward, she’ll do fine. She won’t match Scott dollar for dollar, but her campaign won’t live or die on money alone.

It’d also help if Scott kicked a few more balls into his own net, as he did this week with the announcement that an emergency rental assistance program was virtually out of money — something his officials failed to notice or predict. As a result, thousands will lose rental support at the end of this month, and thousands more at the end of November. You know, just when it’s getting seriously cold?

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Where’d the Big Money Go?

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To paraphrase the great Yogi Berra, it’s getting late early out there. Almost three weeks remain until Election Day, but we’re closing in on 100,000 ballots already cast in Vermont. That’s likely to be between one-third and one-quarter of all the votes. Which means that political spending will be less and less impactful as the ballots keep on rolling in.

So, where’s the big money? It’s absent, for the most part. The next round of campaign finance reports isn’t due until Thursday night, but we’re in the Mass Media reporting window: Within 45 days of an election, any mass media buys over $500 must be reported immediately to the Secretary of State’s office. In recent weeks, there’s little sign of big spends.

This would seem to be terrible news for Scott Milne, Republican candidate for lieutenant governor. On September 24, the Republican State Leadership Committee spent $210,000 on TV ads backing Milne. I took it as a sign that national Republicans saw Milne as a credible contender — perhaps even a future successor to Gov. Phil Scott, whenever he rides off into the sunset or Congress, depending.

But the ballots are pouring in, and the RSLC hasn’t spent a dime here in three weeks. Either they have bigger fish to fry, or they’ve decided that Milne is a lost cause.

Despite that poll.

After the jump: a deeper dive into PAC and Super PAC spending. I warned you.

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The big-money tsunami has arrived

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Fun Fact, courtesy of Seven Days’ Paul Heintz:

[Phil Scott] has yet to run any television advertising in the general election.

That might come as a surprise to anyone who watches TV in Vermont. We’ve seen a plethora of spots in support of Scott and against Sue Minter.

And every last one of ‘em was bought and paid for by a Washington, D.C.-based SuperPAC, ironically named “A Stronger Vermont.”

ASV, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Republican Governors Association, has spent more than $1.2 million in Vermont. With five weeks to go, it seems certain to exceed $2 million.

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Phil Scott’s national buddies go negative

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I knew it was just a matter of time.

“A Stronger Vermont,” the D.C.-based SuperPAC arm of the Republican Governors Association, has been dumping truckloads of cash into Vermont on behalf of Phil Scott. Officially, the RGA tally is over $500,000. But as Paul Heintz reports today, the RGA has transferred another $600,000 into ASV’s coffers, “bringing its total investment in the race to $1.2 million.” With a month and a half to go.

Until now, ASV’s ads have been right out of the Phil Scott playbook: sunny, warm scenes of Phil interacting with Real People, a comforting voice-over, and music designed to trigger an endorphin rush.

Today, ASV crossed over to the dark side, with its first TV ad attacking Sue Minter.

Check that. Attacking Peter Shumlin.

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Leadership That Waffles: No More Buying Local

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Let’s step into the Wayback Machine and travel back to 2012, when the earth was young and a dewey-eyed gent named Phil Scott was running for a second term as Lieutenant Governor. And his campaign went all-in on the idea of Buying Local. This, according to Project Vote Smart, comes from his 2012 campaign website:

During the summer of 2011, Lt. Governor Scott attended parades, fairs and farmers markets throughout the state, spreading the message “Buy Local: It’s not just for hippies anymore.”…

The Lieutenant Governor’s office offers an excellent opportunity to promote Vermont products and the Vermont brand. While it’s important to market Vermont outside the state, Lt. Governor Scott wants to make sure we don’t ignore the opportunities to market ourselves within our own communities.

(And by the way, “Candidate Scott” walks the walk: In all of his election campaigns, Phil Scott has worked exclusively with vendors and consultants within Vermont’s borders.)

He was still “walking the walk” as recently as last November, when he got a friendly front-page spread in the Burlington Free Press for his advocacy of Buying Local.

However…

Then he started seriously running for Governor. And all that Buying Local stuff went straight into the dumpster.

As of the last reporting deadline (September 1), the Scott campaign had spent $900,927.44. By my calculations, at least $411,266.52 went to out-of-state companies and contractors. And that doesn’t include the fact that, for some reason, his campaign’s VISA card was issued by North Carolina(!)-based Capitol One.

HB-2, anyone?

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The Dems’ attacks are no better than the Repubs’

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Recently, I made sport of VTGOP chair David Sunderland for issuing yet another baseless attack on Secretary of State Jim Condos. Seems only fair that I should point out that the Vermont Democratic Party’s attacks are just as poorly-aimed and baseless.

Two recent examples: The Dems trying to make hay over Phil Scott’s fundraising, and their thinly-evidenced claim that the Scott campaign is in cahoots with the Republican Governors Association. Both attacks are poorly-considered, and both will fail to resonate.

The more recent first. The VTDems filed an official complaint with the attorney general’s office, charging improper collusion between Scott and the RGA’s SuperPAC. By law, SuperPACs can promote or attack candidates, but their efforts must be completely independent of any candidate’s campaign.

The SuperPAC, “A Stronger Vermont,” has been running positive ads about Scott. The Dems’ complaint sits on a tenuous foundation: the fact that an RGA film crew has been filming in close proximity to Scott, which means he must have been aware of the camera crew and their provenance.

Yeah, well, maybe. But that doesn’t prove anything.

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Does Phil Scott’s future depend on Trump?

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The Republican candidate for governor is famously not a fan of Donald Trump. Phil Scott plans to write in Jim Douglas for President, in an empty gesture of “leadership.”

But if Scott doesn’t want to vote for Trump, he might just find himself having to root for the man.

There’s a lot of talk in Republican circles these days about cutting their losses: concentrating resources in key areas, and making some necessary sacrifices in the process.

Trump’s at the top of that sacrificial hierarchy, but here’s something to ponder. How high on that list do you suppose Phil Scott is?

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