While I was preparing (an overly grandiose term for my process, TBH) for the latest edition of the “Montpelier Happy Hour” podcast with Your Host Olga Peters*, something struck me that shouldn’t have been a surprise at all. Well, two things:

*Audio version available here.

1. In a normal year, the Legislature would be steaming full-speed toward adjournment or would have already adjourned, but we seem to be nowhere near a conclusion.
2. The filing deadline for major-party candidates in the August primary and November election is less than a month away.

If there was ever a year that could put a stake in the heart of Vermont’s beloved but fictional separation between legislating season and political season, well, 2026 is it. Last year, thanks mainly to Gov. Phil Scott’s bullheaded insistence on Act 73, the Legislature didn’t adjourn until mid-June. We seem to be headed toward a repeat performance this year, given the facts that (1) the House just passed H.931, its version of the Act 73 sequel, (2) the Senate has barely begun its process, (3) the Senate is likely to tear up the House bill and rewrite it from scratch, (4) the governor has already promised to veto the House version if it did somehow get through the Senate, and (5) ain’t nobody seems to have the slightest idea what kind of bill could survive the process while maybe not entirely triggering a revolt among the voting public.

Oh, and the governor is also threatening to lock the doors from the outside if he doesn’t get an amended version of Act 181 that’s to his liking. Also the budget, a not uncommon bone of contention between the branches. And he’s likely to veto another bill or six, just for shits and giggles.

The difference between last year and this, politically speaking, is that this is an election season. If the Legislature doesn’t adjourn until mid-June, there would be less than two months remaining before the August primary — and only five months until Election Day. And there are a fair number of lawmakers facing primary opposition. (Five sitting senators in Chittenden County alone!) Think they’ve got their eyes on the exits?

It’s going to be a decidedly unfun spring for Our Betters, who are being asked to work weeks of overtime for no pay and put their lives, families, and careers on hold indefinitely for the second consecutive year. Could this trigger a wave of late retirements in the House and Senate? I wouldn’t be surprised. Party people in charge of candidate recruitment might need to fill some unexpected gaps in their tickets.

Otherwise, what does a long legislative session mean? A late start for officeholders. An advantage for non-officeholders in contested primaries. And whatever does emerge from this trudge through the policy desert will have an outsized impact on the election season to come.

Especially considering that the governor, that famously Nice Guy and non-politician, has been laying the groundwork for a scorched-earth campaign that will blame the Democrats for every problem faced by the state, including whatever emerges from the Statehouse on school reform, Act 181, taxes and spending, etc., etc. He’ll also brand them as the party that doesn’t give two shits about rural Vermont. In short, he will lie. A lot.

The Democrats will struggle to counter his arguments considering that as always, the governor has the bully pulpit and all others fight desperately for scraps of attention. They do have a couple of things going for them, though.

First, and most obviously, this is going to be a massive anti-Trump wave year. How that translates to Vermont state politics I don’t know, but Democratic voters will be highly motivated to turn out.

Second, the contested Democratic primaries for governor and lieutenant governor. Those races should focus a lot of media attention on Democratic candidates and policy stances. This is the party’s main hope to get its message out to the voters.

The candidates for governor, Amanda Janoo and Aly Richards, are both serious people with strong policy views. The major candidates for LG, Molly Gray and Ryan McLaren are both well-regarded in Democratic circles, although it’d be helpful if McLaren would stop setting bridges on fire and stick to campaigning.

The 2026 campaign is shaping up to fit Thomas Hobbes’ famous phrase, “nasty, brutish, and short.” Which might be the only positive about an extended legislative session: Fewer days spent in the swamps of openly partisan politics.