Well, today’s confluence of events — the Legislature desperately careening toward adjournment on the day of the filing deadline for major-party candidates — was inevitably going to produce a flurry of political happenings. Most, frankly, were no surprise. The major exception: House Speaker Jill Krowinski’s decision to bow out of the Legislature. More on that below, but let’s shoot through the rest of the headlines.

Phil Scott runs for a sixth term. Not a surprise at all. He’s got to be enjoying life more now than during the Democrats’ supermajority years, and he’s still got to see himself as the only person who can forestall Democratic hegemony. But if he wins and serves out his next term, he will set the all-time record for longest serving Vermont governor — displacing Howard Dean, whose record for vetoes was shattered by Scott long ago. And Scott has already surpassed Dean on one electoral score: Dean only ran for governor five times, and this is Scott’s sixth gubernatorial campaign. He’s already entered new territory on that score.

The prediction markets are finally warming a bit to #vtpoli, and becoming more on point. Kalshi’s “Vermont Governor Winner?” proposition has “Republican Party” at 86% and “Democratic Party” at only 7%, which seems about right. Wednesday morning, those odds were 73% Republican and 27% Democratic. One thing changed in the last 36 hours, and that was Scott formally announcing his candidacy. Also seems about right.

Pieciak declines. In other unsurprising news, Treasurer Mike Pieciak pissed on the dying embers of gubernatorial speculation by officially filing for re-election. His decision not to seek the corner office, he said, was due to a difficult past year in his personal life including the loss of both parents and separation from his husband. But it’s a disappointment for Democratic wishcasters who saw him as their best hope for beating the governor. (Despite his decision, Pieciak remains the second favorite on Kalshi to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, far behind Aly Richards and a skosh ahead of Amanda Janoo.)

The return of Scary Eagle Man. If you thought you wouldn’t have Gerald Malloy to kick around anymore, you were wrong. This time, he’s opted to run for Congress after two embarrassingly unsuccessful bids for U.S. Senate. This time, the kicking will be administered by U.S. Representative Becca Balint, who gets 99% of the action on Kalshi. Assuming Malloy can survive a red-hot Republican primary battle with extremist loser Mark Coester.

The return and return and return and return of H. Brooke Paige. It’s yet another sad chapter in The Big Book of Republican Failure to Assemble a Statewide Ticket. The indefatigable H. Brooke Paige is the sole candidate in the VTGOP primary for four separate statewide offices: Attorney General, Auditor, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Paige will doubtless serve as a placeholder, since the Vermont Republican Party does have the ability to nominate candidates after the August primary in easily achievable circumstances. But those candidates, if they do eventuate, will have precious little time to mount any kind of statewide campaign.

Okay, enough preliminaries. Let’s get to the Krowinski decision.

Leading the Vermont House or Senate is a job that chews people up and spits them out. The longest-serving Speaker was Ralph Wright, who managed 10 years in the job but by the end his bridges were well-burnt and he knew he’d shot his wad. (I recently read his memoir, which is highly informative despite its flaws.) Legislative leaders are always on short lists of potential gubernatorial campaigns, but when was the last time a Pro Tem or Speaker actually became governor? Seriously, I don’t know. I suspect it’s been a minute.

When you lead a majority caucus, you’re responsible for holding them together no matter what. It’s a demanding job. You can’t establish a political profile of your own. It’s more like running a day care than auditioning for the top position in state government.

And now we have the Speaker and Pro Tem exiting the scene in the same year. A difficult year, with more of the same likely in the next biennium. It’s been a lot less rewarding to make deals with Phil Scott than in the supermajority days when Democrats could pass big bills over Scott’s objections. No wonder Krowinski and Phil Baruth have decided enough is enough.

These are, I emphasize, extremely difficult jobs. But it’s hard to look on either leader as a success.

The Democrats achieved supermajorities during their tenure. Baruth and Krowinski took advantage by passing some major legislation and overriding Scott vetoes. But some of those bills had unintended consequences, such as the skyrocketing property tax rates that led to the end of Democratic dominance after the 2024 election. If the two leaders get some credit for building supermajorities, then they also get some blame for squandering the opportunity to enact a convincing agenda that would persuade voters to give up their infatuation with our race car drivin’, backhoe ownin’ governor.

The historically fraught House-Senate relationship, which seemed to get better when Balint led the Senate, took a turn for the worse under Baruth and Krowinski. That didn’t help create a coherent Democratic agenda. Nor did their failure to engage in any sort of effective political messaging. Scott had the stage to himself and he set the narrative. Admittedly, there’s an inherent power imbalance between the two branches; Scott has a massive bureaucracy at his back, and he can always get attention from the media. But the situation sure didn’t improve under current legislative leadership.

A couple years ago I attended a press conference called by Krowinski and top committee chairs. They were trying to deliver a counterpunch to Scott’s attacks, and they botched the job. Their arguments were far too technical and wonky to grab the interest of assembled reporters, and there was almost no coverage of the event.

Baruth and Krowinski leaned heavily on their home county of Chittenden in assembling their leadership teams. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Vermont Democrats have had trouble getting a positive message out to other parts of the state. There are more than a few current and former non-Chittenden lawmakers who have little good to say about House and Senate leadership. Some of that is sour grapes, but not all of it.

Again, leading a majority caucus is a hell of a task, and I sure as hell wouldn’t want to try it. But hey, if you seek the job and you manage to get it, then you’re responsible for the results. And there are more than a few demerits on the Baruth and Krowinski ledgers.

I won’t try to launch a prediction market on who will ascend to House or Senate leadership, but I wil point to one name in each chamber. Senate Majority Leader Kesha Ram Hinsdale is widely (universally?) seen as a determined climber, and it would be no surprise if she sought to succeed Baruth. Indeed, it’d be more of a surprise if she didn’t. And independent Rep. Laura Sibilia, who ran for Speaker against Krowinski in 2025, is still in the Legislature and remains widely respected. She might just try again.

The deadline for major party candidates has passed, but we won’t have the final list of candidates for a while yet. It takes time for the Secretary of State to process all those forms. Stay tuned.