Daily Archives: September 29, 2026

Two More Notes on THE NUMBERS

1 Reply

I spent several hours yesterday poring over the two new opinion polls about the top contests in Vermont. So of course I missed something very interesting, which was pointed out to me by my Hardwick Gazette colleague Paul Fixx. I’ll relate that tidbit, along with a harbinger of sudden activity by Vermont Democrats in apparent response to the polls.

The tidbit, or maybe that’s underselling it: Phil Scott is less popular among Vermont Republicans than Donald Trump. According to the Vermont Public survey, 69% of Republican voters approve of Trump’s job performance and 15% disapprove. The same figures for Scott: 58% approve, 20% disapprove.

Huh. Maybe campaign manager Dustin Degree should stop complaining about the UNH Survey Center oversampling Democrats. He’s got problems with his own people. (The UNH survey didn’t ask respondents for their view of Trump’s performance. Its only Trump-related inquiry was about his tariff war with Canada. Democrats and independents overwhelmingly disapproved, while a solid majority of Republicans approved. Sheeple, I tell ya.)

The Republican antipathy for Scott has, until now, been a minor annoyance, more than made up for by his popularity among centrists and moderate Democrats. But when Scott’s favorability is at a low point, he kinda needs the Republican base in his corner. Now, those anti-Scott Republicans aren’t going to vote for Amanda Janoo, but what if they stay home or leave the governor’s line blank on their ballots? The Republicans already face a sizeable enthusiasm gap this year; ambivalence toward Scott isn’t going to help. But it’s a fact of life for a party whose center of gravity is clearly to the right of its leader.

Second thing. I got a long email today from state Rep. Emilie Kornheiser of Brattleboro. Not personally; I’m just on her mailing list. But the content was striking. It was a full-throated endorsement of Janoo that trumpeted the poll results:

I honestly can’t see my way through another two years of Phil Scott. I have done my darnedest, and done well, to negotiate with him and around him… but we really can’t go on like this. We need a government that is earnestly trying to do better – to meet the moment and all that is needed.

And somehow, through the miracle of all of you, it seems possible that we could do better! It’s actually happening….polling showing Amanda is pulling ahead of Phil Scott!

Kornheiser called on her supporters to GET INVOLVED in the gubernatorial race, all caps hers. She touted a statewide organizing meeting via Zoom that’s happening Wednesday evening. And she promoted not one, not two, but three separate Janoo events next week in Brattleboro. Janoo herself will hold a fundraiser on October 6 followed by one of her town hall meetings. And the next night, Treasurer Mike Pieciak will get stuck in, hosting a fundraiser on behalf of Janoo and LG candidate Molly Gray. All three will be in attendance.

It’s great to see top Democrats finally getting behind their literal standard-bearer. I just hope it isn’t too little, too late. If Scott wins a close race, the Democrats will only have themselves to blame for squandering a moment in history when Scott’s standing finally began to fade and an upstart candidate found a way to engage the grass roots.

The Numbers The Numbers ALL THE NUMBERS

4 Replies

When a poll came out last week showing Amanda Janoo leading Gov. Phil Scott, it wasn’t well received by Team Scott. Campaign manager Dustin Degree called the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Green Mountain State Poll an “outlier,” which is factually incorrect on its face. It can’t be an “outlier” because there were no other polls to compare it to.

But I can understand the reaction. You thought you had it in the bag, and here comes an inconvenient poll poking holes in your Shield of Invulnerability.

Well, now we have a second survey, and what I can tell you is that each of them outlies the other. The new poll commissioned by Vermont Public is more favorable to Republicans across the board than the UNH survey. In the gubernatorial race, it puts Scott 10 points ahead of Janoo while UNH gives Janoo a six-point lead.

In the campaign for lieutenant governor, UNH has Democrat Molly Gray holding a decisive 19-point edge over incumbent John Rodgers while VP reports Gray with a lead of eight points. And there’s a huge divergence in the campaign for Vermont’s single seat in the U.S. House: Instead of incumbent Becca Balint’s 66-30 edge in the UNH poll, the Vermont Public survey gives Balint only a 15-point lead with, again, enough undecideds to turn the race around.

Those are big enough swings to cast doubt over the entire enterprise. I mean, each poll claims a margin of error under 3.5 points, but the differences between the two are waaaaaay bigger than that.

Continue reading →