The second most notable results from the September 1 campaign finance disclosures were about the race for lieutenant governor, and they once again show that incumbent Republican John Rodgers is in some trouble. Maybe a lot of trouble.

Two years ago, his campaign was buoyed by a wave of four-figure checks from the folks I call the Barons of Burlington: the moguls, developers, landlords, and others capable of making large donations to favored candidates. From July 1 onward, Rodgers’ 2024 campaign finance reports were riddled with familiar names: Pomerleaus, Pizzagallis, Tarrants, Bruce Lisman, Ray Pecor, Doug Nedde, etc., all kicking in sizable donations. The flood of cash may or may not have been the deciding factor in Rodgers’ win over incumbent David Zuckerman, but it sure as hell didn’t hurt.

This year, however, something has changed. The Barons are almost entirely absent from Rodgers’ filings. He did receive $1,000 from Ernie Pomerleau in August, but otherwise his September 1 report was barren of Barons. As a result, Rodgers lags far behind Democratic nominee Molly Gray in total fundraising and cash on hand. (Gray has received $2,250 from former Rodgers backer Brian Boardman plus $2,000 from ski resort tycoon Win Smith, so the balance of Barons tips slightly in her direction.)

Gray’s lead in spendable cash is kind of stunning, since she had to weather a costly primary battle while Rodgers faced no Republican opposition. The bottom line: Gray has raised $412,000 for the campaign to date compared with Rodgers’ $143,000. Gray has spent $339,000, and reported cash on hand totaling $73,000. Rodgers has somehow managed to spend $118,000 despite the lack of a primary challenge, and has only $26,000 in the bank.

Standard caveat: Money isn’t the only factor in a campaign, and Rodgers does have the incumbent’s advantage. But pre-primary polls by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center showed weakness in Rodgers’ position. The disparities in fundraising prowess and cash position are more evidence that Rodgers is on the back foot. And the reticence of the Barons suggests they might just see him as a lost cause.

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