
For those just joining us, this is the image I got when I asked an AI image generator for “Polling Place.” The Age of the Machine is off to a rocky start.
9:00 p.m. So what have we learned so far? Gov. Phil Scott has held a persistent lead over Democrat Amanda Janoo for most of the evening. He has a 9 1/2 point edge with 52% of the vote counted. Otherwise this night is shaping up as a disaster for the Republicans. Lt. Gov. John Rodgers is far behind Democratic challenger Molly Gray. The Dems have a real chance at winning a supermajority in the state Senate. And first-term Republican representatives are falling like flies at a bug zapper. That wave election of 2024 looks like an aberration, not a trend. And the two constitutional amendments are sailing to victory.
9:06 p.m. Republican Rep. Jim Casey of the Addison-Rutland district is behind Democrat Jonathan Hescock by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, but it’s early. Only 44% of the votes are in.
9:10 p.m. Another Republican on the chopping block. Rep. Sandra Pinsonault is trailing Democrat Mike Rice by eight points with 95% of the votes in. That’s the Bennington-Rutland district.
9:12 p.m. By my count, that’s 10 Republicans defeated or trailing in the House. I may be missing a few.
9:14 p.m. The Dems have held serve in the Chittenden-18 district. Incumbent Carol Ode and former Burlington city councilor Ali Dieng appear to have beaten independent Dave Hartnett in a close three-way contest for two seats. 99% of the vote counted.
9:16 p.m. Two more Republican House seats in peril. In the Chittenden-Franklin district, the two Republican incumbents are trailing the two Democrats with 95% of the votes counted. One of the two Dems is Henry Bonges, who was removed from his volunteer positions in Milton town government after he emailed his state reps urging them to support climate action. Those reps also served on the town select board. He may have his revenge tonight.
9:20 p.m. And Franklin County Republican Rep. Joe Luneau seems to be going down to defeat at the hands of Democrat Suzanne Kenyon.
9:22 p.m. Senate Minority Leader Scott Beck is in a very close race with Democrat David Roth. With 54% of the votes counted, Beck has a 2.9 point lead.
9:25 p.m. The Democrats are on track to regain supermajorities in both the House and Senate.
9:28 p.m. Gov. Phil Scott is holding onto his lead. He’s ahead of Amanda Janoo by eight points with 64% of the vote in. But he may be the loneliest man in Montpelier for the next two years, after what’s shaping up to be a bloodbath for Republicans not named “Phil Scott.”
9:30 p.m. Molly Gray, meanwhile, continues to mop the floor with Lt. Gov. John Rodgers. She’s 25 points ahead with 64% of the votes counted. The AP steadfastly refuses to call any race besides U.S. Rep. Becca Balint’s.
9:33 p.m. Former senator Irene Wrenner looks to be returning to Montpelier. With 99% of the votes counted in Chittenden North, she’s ahead of Republican Rep. Ashley Bartley by two full points.
9:37 p.m. It still looks like a Democratic supermajority in the state Senate, although things could change. The Dems are ahead for four seats currently in Republican hands, and independent Dave Wolk continues on track to take a Rutland seat away from the VTGOP. The new Senate would have 21 combined Dems and Progs, only eight Republicans, and one independent. Plus Molly Gray holding the gavel.
9:39 p.m. Amanda Janoo is running out of time and potential votes. She’s 7 1/2 points behind Gov. Phil Scott with 72% of votes counted. She’s gaining, but not fast enough.
9:48 p.m. The way the results are shaping up, I think Rural Vermont Rising is looking more like a flash in the pan than a growing force in Vermont politics.
9:50 p.m. Gov. Scott’s lead is down to 5.7 points, but it doesn’t look like there are enough votes for Janoo to gain that much ground. Otherwise this is shaping up to be a nightmare scenario for Vermont Republicans AND the governor, who will likely face supermajorities in both the House and Senate.
9:56 p.m. Oh boy, 15-term Republican Rep. Mary Morrissey is in trouble. She’s in third place in a race for two seats in Bennington. Only two-thirds of the votes counted, so there’s time for a comeback.
