All in All, Not a Bad Speech

At the end of my previous post, I looked ahead to Gov. Phil Scott’s inaugural address (which I mistakenly dubbed “State of the State,” sorry) with these words: “We’ll see how much actual ‘coming to the table’ he does, and how much kicking the Legislature he indulges in.”

And now we know. The governor was sworn in and delivered his speech on Thursday afternoon. There was some definite kicking, to be sure. There was also a broad outline of an agenda that emphasized his usual talking points. But the final section of the speech was pure uplift. After ticking off the challenges we face, Scott listed some positive accomplishments not directly tied to anything partisan.

The first one, in fact, was a barely concealed slap at his fellow Republican, Donald Trump. “We’ve received over 1,000 refugees in the last three years and will continue,” Scott said, prompting one of two standing ovations that brought the entire chamber to its feet. (“Entire” as best I could tell watching the livestream, that is.)

His point was that Vermonters can tackle challenges and get hard things done. I may not completely share that optimism, but it was a positive, collaborative message.

At least for today it was. Scott’s budget address two weeks from now will contain the details of his 2025 agenda, and you know where the devil is.

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This One Had All the Drama of a North Carolina – East Nowhere Tech Basketball Game

It was over before the shouting. Or the talking, for that matter. In retrospect, it was probably over from square one. At its organizing session Wednesday morning, the House re-elected Democratic Rep. Jill Krowinski as House Speaker by a lopsided 111-to-35 margin over independent Rep. Laura Sibilia.

The image above is not the cover for the little known Sergeant Pepper Bureaucrats Club Band album, but a press conference held by House Democrats before the House convened. In a calculated show of solidarity, dozens of Dems squeezed tight behind incoming House Majority Leader Rep. Lori Houghton, who described the caucus’ agenda for the 2025 session. Houghton began the presser by asserting, pointedly, “I am the new House Majority Leader.”

From that moment, there was no doubt that Krowinski would prevail. Unless you beleve that a now permanently hypothetical Speaker Sibilia would have retained Krowinski’s leadership team.

Frankly, all but the tiniest hint of doubt had been removed Tuesday morning when the Dems distributed an email announcing the press conference. I mean, if leadership is unveiling its priorities at a presser immediately preceding the vote for Speaker, then they must have known it was in the bag. How embarrassing would it have been for leadership to unveil its agenda only to be tossed out within a couple of hours?

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Please, Bernie, No

Oh boy. According to The Hill, Sen. Bernie Sanders may be open to supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health & Human Services Secretary. Not that The Hill is the most reliable of outlets, but this is just alarming. If Bernie is, indeed, mulling a “yes” vote, he should stop it. Immediately.

As the story tells it, Sanders and Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman could vote “yes” on RFK’s nomination because of “shared critiques on heavy corporate influence over food and a desire to promote a less chemical-laden country.”

The story relies heavily on anonymous sources, and not many of ’em at that. There’s a single unnamed “source close to [Sanders’] office,” whatever the hell that means. And that source didn’t go much beyond asserting that Sanders “will use the opportunity [of hte confirmation hearing] to point out the shortcomings of the industrial food system, supply chains, etc.” That’s a far cry from actually voting “yes” on Kennedy.

There is one quote from a named source. Progressive activist Nina Turner went on the record, offering “my sense” that Sanders and Fetterman would support Kennedy.

Please, God, no. Don’t do it, Bernie.

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Democrats Be Democrattin’

VTDigger’s post-Mearhoff political “team” has done itself proud in the early days of the new year, publishing not one, but two, articles outlining a fresh outbreak of an old familiar malady of the left — Democrats in Disarray.

Yeah, I’ve seen this movie before, over and over again. The Dems react to an electoral defeat by watering down their agenda and shifting (if not stampeding) to the center. When, in fact, the lesson to be learned from election victories on both sides is that voters reward authenticity — and are unconvinced by carefully titrated policy positions that have been focus-grouped to death. And by “authenticity” I mean everything from Jimmy Carter’s humble populism to Donald Trump’s extravagant disregard for political norms. (Trump may be a phony and a huckster but he’s consistent about it. He is, as he has told us repeatedly, that snake.)

Digger’s Emma Cotton brings us word of a panicky retreat from the Dems’ climate agenda, while the (at least for the moment) sole occupant of the political beat, Shaun Robinson, reports that quite a few House Democrats are prepared to defenestrate Speaker Jill Krowinski in favor of independent Rep. Laura Sibilia. Enough are against Krowinski or undecided that next week’s election for Speaker may be a close affair.

Both are clear and obvious overreactions to the results of the November elections, which saw many a Democrat go down to defeat — but which left the Democrats with a majority in the Senate and nearly a two-thirds majority in the House. To say that they “lost” the election is to avoid the fact that they still rule the Statehouse roost, and would be fully justified in pursuing an ambitious agenda in the new biennium. Even so, many Dems seem to be running scared. Some of their more influential member are, dare I say, sounding a lot like Phil Scott Republicans. And no, that’s not a compliment.

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Vermont’s Campaign Finance System Is Useless, And That’s a Product of Deliberate Design

Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas gave it the old college try. This year, after every campaign finance reporting deadline, she published lists of all candidates who failed to file as required by law. This was aimed at encouraging compliance, if only by the embarrassment of being publicly identified as a scofflaw.

It was a good idea, but it didn’t work. The proof? The most recent list of non-compliers, released after the December 15 deadline for Final Reports, was by far the longest of all the lists. Proof that avoidance of embarrassment meant nothing whatsoever to candidates for public office.

The list is actually three lists: Those who filed, those who filed an “Under Threshold” report (didn’t raise or spend $500 or more), and those who just let the deadline fly by. And yes, if your campaign had no reportable activity, you’re still required to officially attest to that fact.

Among statewide candidates, only two are in the failed-to-file category: Republican candidate for treasurer (and Republican National Commitee member) Joshua Bechhoefer and, um, incumbent Auditor Doug Hoffer. Oopsie.

It gets really embarrassing when you get to legislative candidates. The list of Senate scofflaws is almost as long as the list of those who complied. A total of 30 Senate candidates, including seven winners, did not file a Final Report. In the House, 105 candidates failed to file, including (by my count) 32 winners.

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In the “Nobody Cares, But They Should” File: Jason Herron, Campaign Finance Scofflaw (Updated)

Update 12/26: Turns out a complaint has already been filed about Herron’s campaign finance. See note below.

Hey, remember this guy? Jason Herron, ultraconservative from Guilford who ran as a Democrat in the August primary and lost to real Democrat Zon Eastes?

Well, Mr. Herron apparently checked out after his loss, because he has yet to file any campaign finance reports since August 1. And his last report constitutes an egregious violation of state law.

As of August 1, Herron had reported spending $7,565 and raising zero dollars. That’s right, he reported no donations to his campaign and did not identify the source of his cash.

After August 1, Herron filed three separate Mass Media expenditure reports: $500 to J and B’s Curbside Café and two identical filings reporting $2,229 spent at Staples for postcards and mailing. If you give him the benefit of the doubt for sloppy reporting, he spent $2,729 after August 1. If you take his filings at face value, which is how the law works, then he spent a total of $4,458 at Staples for a post-August 1 total of $4,958.

Which brings his total campaign spending to either $10,294 or $12,023. Which is a hell of a lot for a House primary contest.

And his fundraising remains at an officially reported zero.

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An Especially Unsettling Spin of a Familiar Revolving Door

There’s nothing illegal about this. It happens all the time. But this particular instance has a bit of a stench about it.

I’m talking about Sarah Mearhoff’s departure from VTDigger. Mearhoff has been the Statehouse bureau chief for Digger, the lead author of its “Daily Briefing” newsletter and its top political reporter throughout this campaign season. She announced her departure last Friday on the accursed platform once known as Twitter. She did not reveal her next professional destination.

But now we know. Mearhoff is crossing over to the dark side. She’s been hired as director of advocacy and communications for the Associated General Contractors of Vermont.

Chief lobbyist, in other words. For one of the most powerful and connected interest groups in Montpelier. Until December 14, Mearhoff was reporting on the doings of our representatives under the Dome. In less than three weeks, she’ll be trying to influence those same people on behalf of Vermont’s road builders and construction magnates, a.k.a. Phil Scott’s favorite people in the whole world.

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Bookshelf: Cutting Through the Bull on Homelessness

I have to say, it’s the first book I’ve ever read that gave away the conclusion right there in the title. I also have to say this isn’t the best-written book ever published — but it’s also an absolutely vital contribution to the discourse. In a fairly slim volume (204 pages plus extensive notes), co-authors Gregg Colburn and Clayton Page Aldern examine the various theories about the causes of homelessness and, with comprehensive evidence, dismiss all of them but one: as the title says, Homelessness Is a Housing Problem.

It’s not crime or mental illness or opioids or laziness or liberal policies or conservative policies or family strife or poverty or unemployment. Homelessness becomes an issue whenever and wherever there’s a shortage of housing. Like, for instance, here in Vermont.

That’s it. Case closed.

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John Rodgers Has Even More Work to Do

When last we looked at Lieutenant-Governor-Elect John Rodgers’ campaign finances, we saw that he was nearly $53,000 in the red as of the November 19 filing deadline.

Well, now the final numbers are in — and Rodgers’ deficit has grown even larger.

His December 15 filing, which is the last one for the campaign cycle and is officially attested to as his FINAL REPORT all caps, shows total fundraising of $216,468 and total expenditures of $284,588.01.

That’s a shortfall of $68,120.01.

In percentage terms, Rodgers overspent his income by 31.5%.

It’s a curious situation for a common-sense fiscal conservative “balancin’ the books around the kitchen table” kind of guy.

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There’s Still Not a Lick of Evidence That People Are Fleeing Vermont

We Vermonters tend to have a sunny view of ourselves and our B.L.S. Sometimes it’s justified, sometimes it’s overblown, sometimes it’s horse hockey. But there’s one consistent idea in our politics that reveals a strain of self-loathing. Funny thing is, it’s an idea that happens to be untrue.

I’m speaking of the notion that people are fleeing the state. I’ve been hearing this as long as I’ve been covering Vermont politics. It most often comes from conservative politicians bitching about high taxes. People are leaving Vermont in droves, they say, because the Democrats are out of control and taxes are too high. This is usually accompanied by an anecdote featuring an anonymous Vermonter planning or contemplating a move.

Funny thing is, I have yet to see any actual evidence for the claim. If people are fleeing Vermont, they leave no trace in the data.

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