A Rising Tide Floats Phil’s Boat

Gov. Phil Scott’s whingeing about VPIRG attack ads seems even more petty now that the Republican Governors Association has dumped another $550,000 into its local outlet, A Stronger Vermont. For those keeping score, the RGA has now dedicated $950,000 to defending the man formerly known as the most popular governor in America. (ASV began the year with $70,000 in the bank, so its total resources now top the $1 million mark.) If you want a measure of his decline, there it is: In a year when the RGA faces an anti-Trump wave across the country, they’re investing big money into the guy who seemed unbeatable as recently as last spring.

Or to put it more precisely, they’re investing big money on attack ads aimed at undercutting Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. A few months ago she didn’t even seem like a threat to win her party’s nomination, let alone have a chance to defeat the man who’s won more elections than any other Vermont politician in the 21st Century. (Scott’s record is 13-0 since he entered politics in 2000. His next defeat will be his first.)

A Stronger Vermont disclosed the $550,000 from RGA in a brand-new mass media filing that reports expenditures totaling $252,046.70 on TV ads ($140K), online ads ($72K) and the dreaded consultancy fees for out-of-state political shop Flexpoint Media ($38K).

It’ll be interesting to see if we get more of the original anti-Janoo spot focusing on her alleged inexperience, or if the independent PAC goes scorched earth by depicting Janoo as an unhinged radical who looks suspiciously immigrant-y (although she is, in fact, a Vermont native). You know, the old skin-darkening trick deployed so widely against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.

A Stronger Vermont’s total 2026 spending adds up to more than $715,000, and it has enough cash on hand to exceed $1,000,000. We haven’t seen this much independent spending in a Vermont gubernatorial campaign since 2016, when ASV spent more than $3,000,000 on Scott’s behalf and the Planned Parenthood Vermont Action Fund spent close to $460,000 (most of that originating from the Democratic Governors Association) on a misguided campaign trying to depict Scott as secretly anti-abortion.

So we haven’t seen this level of outside meddling in a gubernatorial campaign in a decade, and as of now it’s all happening on one side: pro-Scott, anti-Janoo. (Janoo has expressed her opposition to any DGA entry into the race, while Scott has refused to condemn the RGA’s efforts.) Despite its name, A Stronger Vermont is headquartered in the same Washington, D.C. building as the RGA itself. If the latter has committed almost a million dollars to ASV, you can bet it plans to spend that much. And more, if it seems necessary.

I guess we really do have a close race on our hands.

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