The First Two Debates Gave a Boost to Amanda Janoo, But Not a Decisive One

Big ups to WPTZ-TV for designing the most uncomfortable debate setting I’ve ever seen. I believe this image, seen very briefly just after the mid-show break, was the only establishing shot in the entire one-hour presentation (broadcast live Thursday night, now viewable on the YouTube), and no wonder. It’s just bizarre.

And clearly it affected the quality of the debate. Both candidates appeared uncomfortable and didn’t really know where to look, although Amanda Janoo handled it better than Gov. Phil Scott. His eyes were constantly meandering around. He looked a bit flustered. At first I thought it was fatigue, but then I saw what the studio looked like and realized that flusteration was a perfectly normal response to the setting.

Both candidates came off much better in the previous night’s debate hosted by Vermont Public, using the same studio it uses for “Vermont This Week.” It features a circular setup that allows each participant clear lines of sight to everyone else. Camera placement is designed to be unobtrusive. The room fostered conversation, where WPTZ’s mess fostered alienation.

As you may have gathered by now, this post will be vibes-based rather than a recitation of The Candidates’ Contrasting Views On The Issues. That’s partly because other outlets have weighed in on the substance, and also because the substance is the least impactful aspect of a debate.

Much as we’d like to believe that voters enter campaigns with open minds and make informed decisions based on the issues, that’s not how it works. Most voters’ minds are made up from jump, and nothing that happens in a debate (or anywhere else) could induce them to switch sides. The relative few who can be persuaded will do so not because one candidate has a more detailed health care plan, but because of comfort level: The old Bush/Gore “Who would you rather have a beer with?” test, and the related but more relevant “Who seems capable of handling the job?” That’s less about policy than the appearance of competence.

In a word, vibes.

Scott and Janoo entered the arena with different goals. For Scott, the job was simple: Remind voters why they’ve always supported him in the past. Project that comforting next-door-neighbor persona: the Governor Nice Guy who will work with anyone to make Vermont a better place. Get in some digs at Democrats, but don’t be a prick about it.

He largely succeeded in the Vermont Public debate. Sure, he told a few whoppers and occasionally got lost in the weeds, but he kept things on an even keel. He did less well in the WPTZ debate, which can be attributed to the clunky staging — although I wonder if the now 68-year-old governor had a harder time with debates on consecutive nights than Janoo, who’s more than a full generation younger. Overall, Scott did well enough to avoid significant damage to his cause. He may have convinced some undecideds to stick with a sure thing. Scott’s ceiling is lower, but the perceived floor is higher.

Janoo had a much harder and more complicated task to accomplish. This was her introduction to a lot of voters. She had to present herself as a solid, responsible adult capable of managing state government. She had to seem a bit more mature than her 39 years. She had to roll out an ambitious, progressive agenda and make it seem achievable, inclusive, and not at all scary. And she had to share a stage with Vermont’s winningest politician and not come across as second best.

And she did all of that. It wasn’t flawless, but it was damn close.

Which brings me to the (nonpartisan) elephant in the room: the absence of attacks on Scott’s record. Goodness knows there’s plenty of scope for attacks. She didn’t take advantage, even when Scott opened the door by telling some obvious lies. Hell, when each candidate was asked to name a person from the opposite party they admire, Janoo picked… Phil Scott. (The governor named the safely-retired Pat Leahy.)

It’s not what I would have done. It’s not what a conventional Svengali would have had her do. She willingly gave away quite a few debate points. But I can see why she avoided direct attacks — and largely avoided implicit attacks.

From day one, Janoo’s campaign has defied conventional wisdom. It’s been inclusive, not divisive. She doesn’t make distinctions between rural Vermont and its more urban precincts. Her events are based around audience participation and the sharing of ideas. If she becomes governor, she wants to lay out the welcome mat for people who voted against her. She sees inclusiveness as the best way to fashion successful policies and build support for them. So of course she didn’t go on the offensive. It’s not in her nature or the nature of her campaign.

Over and over again, Scott grooved a changeup down the middle and Janoo refused to swing. At one point Scott said, in his endearingly ungrammatical manner, “There is not going to be a data center in Vermont.” To which the obvious rejoinder was, then why did you veto a bill that would have banned data centers? Janoo didn’t take the bait.

Scott: “I don’t think my style is confrontational.” Which opens the door to, “Well then, why the dozens and dozens of vetoes?” Janoo smiled and moved on.

There was much talk of health care and Janoo’s plan to create a universal primary care system. More than once, Scott cited his Democratic predecessor Peter Shumlin’s abandonment of single-payer health care as a reason to oppose Janoo’s idea. But her proposal is NOT single-payer health care. Her plan would cost much less than single-payer, and could be scaled to match available resources. She advocated for her plan but didn’t point out Scott’s misdirected attack.

Scott also floated a proposal I’d never heard before to address rural Vermont’s relative lack of political heft. He would remake the Senate, assigning two seats to each of Vermont’s 14 counties. The results would be a mockery of one person, one vote. Chittenden County would get one senator per 85,000 residents; Essex County would get one for every 3,000 and Grand Isle one per 3,750. Reminder that the Vermont House used to include one representative per city, town, or hamlet, but that system was thrown out by the U.S. Supreme Court back in the Sixties.

I realize the U.S. Senate operates on the same principle (and Vermont is one of its biggest beneficiaries), but really, if we were reinventing the federal government from scratch, would each state get two senators apiece? I doubt it.

Once again, Janoo didn’t take the bait. She stuck to her friendly, competent, non-confrontational persona. You know, the one that’s taken her from political obscurity to the doorstep of Vermont’s most powerful office in a matter of months.

I wouldn’t have been able to resist exposing the flaws in Scott’s record and his political presentation. But Janoo has gotten this far by sticking to her very unconventional game plan. I’m not inclined to give her any contrary advice. She should see it through. And I’m sure that’s what she will do.

She comes away from the first two debates as a credible alternative. She didn’t scare the horses. Well, I’m sure she scares the conservative base but they wouldn’t vote for any Democrat, even the most benign centrist. She gave undecided voters every reason to seriously consider her candidacy, and no grounds to reject her outright.

Phil Scott remains the favorite to win another term. But Janoo cemented her position as his first serious threat since Sue Minter in 2016. Which is why the Republican Governors Association is suddenly spending a million bucks to knock her down.

6 thoughts on “The First Two Debates Gave a Boost to Amanda Janoo, But Not a Decisive One”

  1. k2s2together's avatark2s2together

    “If she becomes governor, she wants to lay out the welcome mat for people who voted against her. She sees inclusiveness as the best way to fashion successful policies and build support for them.”

    I’ve never seen a truer statement.

    When you see a sign or hear someone saying “Janoo is for you!” it’s true, she really is for us – ALL of us. She is not running for power or prestige- she is running for us. She believes in us and our abilities and talents. She wants us to succeed and knows we can.

    Amanda Janoo is an incredibly intelligent, kind human being with a bold and brave vision for our state. She’s exactly the leader we need to see us through these very troubled times.

    We are teetering on the brink and unless we too are brave and bold enough to make a change, we may very well find ourselves in an even worse predicament.

    Phil Scott has never taken responsibility for the bad state of our state. We have many pressing problems and he has been our leader for ten years. The fact that he continues to blame others for his failure to lead should tell us everything we need to know.

    He may be a nice guy but he should no longer be our governor.

    Amanda Janoo knows we are stronger united than divided and that we are truly, all in this together.

    I am voting for her. I hope you will too.

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  2. johngreenberg's avatarjohngreenberg

    John,

    I’ll give your overall willingness to give Janoo’s performance a pass on the basis of “Janoo has gotten this far by sticking to her very unconventional game plan.” That’s an interesting way to think about it.

    But I do disagree with you on one point about which your argument fails to convince me. When offering Phil Scott as someone in the other party she admires, she did a lot more than avoid “implicit attacks.” She offered him an unsoclicited gift: there was no reason whatsoever to bring up his name in that context. If she really wanted to let everyone know what a nice guy she thinks she is (and he is — she’s right), she could have found another opportunity. I’m assuming she did this in the 2nd debate, which is mostly the subject of your commentary; she definitely did it in the first. Once would have been bad enough, but twice?

    She has no fight in her, no instinct for the jugular. Unless Darwin is entirely wrong, it’s hard to see how this will make her a successful governor, although I hasten to add I was delighted to vote for her. There is a component here of competition whether she likes it or not. Only one of them will be elected. If she seems not to care, will voters?

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    1. John S. Walters's avatarJohn S. Walters Post author

      I can’t say I understand it, I definitely can’t say I’d do the same if I were running. But Janoo has gotten farther than any living soul since Sue Minter, and in the end she’ll probably do better than Minter did. She’s done it Her Way, and it’s worked better than expected so far.

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    2. k2s2together's avatark2s2together

      Mr. Greenberg-

      “But I do disagree with you on one point about which your argument fails to convince me. When offering Phil Scott as someone in the other party she admires, she did a lot more than avoid “implicit attacks.” She offered him an unsoclicited gift: there was no reason whatsoever to bring up his name in that context. If she really wanted to let everyone know what a nice guy she thinks she is (and he is — she’s right), she could have found another opportunity.”

      When Amanda Janoo complimented Phil Scott I couldn’t help but think of To Kill a Mockingbird bird by Harper Lee.

      I think there was a reason.

      I offer this for your consideration:

      How does Scout diffuse the situation in front of the jail in To Kill a Mockingbird?

      Quick answer:

      Scout diffuses the tense situation outside the jail by innocently engaging Mr. Cunningham in conversation. She talks about his son, Walter, and reminds him of their shared humanity. Her polite and childlike demeanor disarms the mob, making Mr. Cunningham realize the wrongness of their actions. This human connection prompts him to disperse the group, preventing potential violence against Atticus and Tom Robinson. Scout’s innocence and kindness effectively dissolve the mob mentality. — eNotes Editorial

      When Amanda Janoo paid respect to Phil Scott I did not see what you did. Instead I saw her demonstrating a great quality in a leader. A quiet and confident strength, she knows who she is. And as I wrote here earlier – she is a true uniter not a divider and sees ALL our strengths and possibilities. She truly wants to improve the lives of all Vermonters. Phil Scott is not her enemy and just as Scout Finch did, Amanda was simply reminding us all of our shared humanity.

      I’m sorry you missed it. But I’m real glad you voted for her

      She set a fine example of how things could be going forward. That’s her style. She would much rather build people up than tear them down. Given the opportunity, I think she will do great things for our state and its people. She is smart and kind. That’s a good combination.

      “Hey Mr.Cunningham…”.

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  3. Brian's avatarBrian

    Thanks for this. I have looked on VT Digger, Vermont Public, Seven Days, WCAX’s website and even WPTZ’s website and haven’t found a single piece on this debate until I got to yours. It seems like you are the only one covering it!

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  4. Walter Carpenter's avatarWalter Carpenter

    I didn’t see the debate and already voted in defiance of the Trumpers with my mark in Janoo’s box. I hope that she wins it… I hope… judging from the road signs that I see while cycling or driving around, the race is about equal. She’s right that we need new thinking rather than the same old Reaganist crap of trickle down and budget cuts for the poor and tax cuts for the rich, so that the rich will donate… It’s this thinking that has made such a profound mess of this country and brought us to the brink of fascism (again) and it’s all we’ve been getting from Scott. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer and that’s been the story these past ten years.

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