Gov. Phil Scott continues to tiptoe the line when it comes to the rank berserkitude of the Trump administration. He got a lot of press coverage for his refusal to approve Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s request for Vermont National Guard personnel for administrative assistance. Since then, it’s been pretty much prudence slash appeasement.
Frankly, I don’t give him much credit for the ICE decision. They only wanted 12 people to basically do secretarial work. (I guess someone’s got to fetch the coffee.) It was such a small-stakes request that I wondered why ICE even bothered. Were they trying to get a foot in the door for bigger asks down the line? Or were they doing Scott a favor by making a request he could safely refuse?
Whatever, Scott’s subsequent actions make it clear that we shouldn’t be giving him a membership card in The Resistance anytime soon. In context, the ICE decision looks more like a brief tactical pivot than a sign that he takes Trump seriously as an existential threat to democracy.
No one besides us pathological Vermont Political Observers will have noticed, but July 1 was not just Bobby Bonilla Day, it was also a milestone in the 2026 gubernatorial campaign: the only campaign finance filing deadline in the year 2025. In fact, the next deadline isn’t until March 15, 2026 — not much more than two months shy of the filing deadline for major party candidates. But then, we do love our myth that nobody runs for office until June of an election year.
In other words, it’s going to get late early. Which makes it especially disappointing for campaign finance sickos (raises hand with pride) that Tuesday’s deadline produced no hints whatsoever about the race for governor in 2026.
Going into the day, I was expecting that Treasurer Mike Pieciak might report a decent-sized pile, like in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, if only to pre-empt a potential flood of Democratic candidates and an unpredictable dogpile primary á la 2010, when Jim Douglas was retiring and an entire generation of Democrats entered the race. Well, five Democrats, anyway. Four of ’em finished within four percentage points of each other, and Peter Shumlin won (by two-tenths of a percent over Doug Racine) with less than one-quarter of the vote. And we all know how that turned out (cough) EB-5, single payer health care, Scott Milne (cough).
I’m allowing myself a little historical tangent because it’s much more interesting than the great big nothing we got in Tuesday’s filings. The details follow. If you like disappointment, read on.
It’s pretty obvious to any Vermont Political Observer, capitalized or otherwise, that the skids are being heavily greased for Treasurer Mike Pieciak to be the next Democratic nominee for governor. But I’d like to point out a small but telling piece of evidence that should not go unremarked upon.
Last week the Vermont Bar Association held a meeting in Manchester, and the occasion was marked by near-universal castigation of the Trump administration’s assault on the legal system (as reported, after the fact, by VTDigger). Members unanimously approved a statement affirming their support for the rule of law. In addition, Digger reports, more than 200 Vermont attorneys and elected officials have signed a statement “supporting the independence of the judiciary and outlining 15 instances of the current administration allegedly disregarding the rule of law.” The statement also announces a rally for lawyers opposed to Trump’s trample on May 3 in Burlington.
Prominent people quoted in the article include Reiber, Attorney General Charity Clark, Bar Association board president (and former deputy AG) Josh Diamond, former assistant U.S. Attorney Scott McGee, Bennington attorney David Silver, and his daughter, attorney* Natalie Silver…
… and Treasurer Mike Pieciak.
Okay, Pieciak is, in fact, a member of the Bar, so technically he qualifies. But he hasn’t been an active attorney since February 2014, when he took a position in the Peter Shumlin administration. He’s been in state government, not as an attorney, ever since.
*Correction: Silver is not an attorney. She is a law school graduate awaiting her law license.
It’s been two and a half months since Election Day, which means I’m way behind the Political Observer curve in terms of looking ahead to the next election.
Or perhaps the 2028 election, depending on when Gov. Phil Scott decides to retire undefeated. Because until that happens, there won’t be a serious contest for the Democratic nomination — and when it happens, we’re going to see a political stampede the likes of which we haven’t seen since Jim Douglas’ retirement in 2010 touched off a five-way contest in the Dem primary.
If you think it’s Way Too EarlyTM for such talk, well, let me tell you, the engines have been revving for some time now. Recent examples: Former Burlington mayor Miro Weinberger’s emergence as the public face of Let’s Build Homes, a nominally bipartisan slash nonpartisan organization promoting the cause described in its name; and the obligatory tongue bath given to Lt. Gov. John Rodgers in the cover story of last week’s Seven Days, which touted the notion that this crusty, ornery Son of the SoilTM was suddenly transformed into gubernatorial timber by his extremely narrow plurality victory over David Zuckerman. Which I don’t buy, but hey, I’ve been wrong before.
In reality, the race to succeed Scott began at least two years ago and maybe four, when Mike Pieciak left his post in the, ahem, Scott administration to run for treasurer and immediately succeeded his predecessor Beth Pearce as the person most likely to get a standing ovation at party meetings. Pieciak’s been fundraising far beyond his minuscule needs ever since, and the only plausible explanation is that he’s preparing to run for governor as soon as Scott steps aside.
A more pointed signal of Pieciak’s intent could be seen in his November 19 campaign finance report: a $3,000 payment made on November 6 to Silver Strategies, LLC.
The UNH Survey Center poll of Vermont’s two Congressional races was laughably bad for Lt. Gov. Molly Gray. It was downright embarrassing for Nolan. The poll has her six points behind Generic Angry White Guy Gerald Malloy and 18 points behind “Undecided.”
More on this in a moment, but I wanted to add three thoughts to my earlier post on the Gray/Becca Balint poll.
First, this is not about Super PAC spending. Sure, three progressive PACs have spent a combined $600,000 on independent activities in support of Balint. But the bulk of that money was spent this month, and a 42 percentage point spread just doesn’t happen that quickly. Even people who run these campaigns would acknowledge that they’re working the margins, trying to move the needle by a few percentage points. The Super PAC support certainly makes Gray’s task harder but if she blames her predicament on them, she’ll be wrong.
Second, if a 42-point deficit wasn’t enough bad news for Gray, there’s also a favorability gap. Balint was seen favorably by 72% of respondents, and unfavorably by a mere 6%. Twelve percent had no opinion. The same categories for Gray: 42% favorable, 19% unfavorable, 8% no opinion. The gist: there’s only a small pool of gettable voters for Gray. Only 13% are undecided. If this poll is anywhere in the ballpark, Gray has a huge deficit and little room to make progress.
Third, Natalie Silver is a freakin’ genius. She’s run a seemingly flawless campaign for Balint. Maybe we should have seen this coming; TJ Donovan never looked better than when Silver was his chief of staff. (She was also involved in Gray’s surprising run to the Bucket of Warm Piss in 2020.) I suspect that if Balint goes to Congress, Silver will be in her inner circle because why the hell wouldn’t you want Silver at your side? But if Silver doesn’t go to Washington, she’ll be the hottest commodity in Vermont politics. And rightfully so.
Meet Emerson Lynn, editor emeritus (and editorial writer) for the St. Albans Messenger, respected presence in Vermont journalism, and, according to a letter to the Messenger, court stenographer for Lt. Gov. Molly Gray’s campaign for Congress.
On Thursday July 14, the Messenger published an editorial written by Lynn endorsing Gray in truly fulsome terms and bashing her main opponent, Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint. The essay sounds like it was written by the Gray campaign.
Which, maybe it was.
The letter is from Natalie Silver, who was an advisor to the 2020 Gray campaign and is now Balint’s campaign manager. (I was told about the letter and inquired with the Balint campaign, which supplied it to me.)
In the letter, Silver accuses Lynn of being a shill for Molly Gray.
In 2020, during Gray campaign meetings, Silver wrote, “It was discussed openly that you were a Molly supporter and that the campaign would coordinate with you on your editorials, even drafting language for you.” Silver claimed the same thing is happening now on Gray’s behalf. Further, Silver asserts that “you have never spoken to me or [Balint], nor asked us a question about any of the various goings on in the campaign,” and, in fact, rejected the offer of a meeting. (Full text below.)
Silver doesn’t come across as selflessly heroic in this. In 2020 this arrangement helped Silver’s candidate and she was fine with it. Now it hurts her candidate and she’s complaining, so this is a case of situational ethics all around. But hey, situational ethics are standard in politics, are they not?
The Vermont Political Observer. 