Tag Archives: Esther Charlestin

It’s Almost As If There’s No Gubernatorial Contest At All

Aww, look at that admiring gaze. You’d never guess that these two people are on opposite sides of a campaign in its closing stage.

Seriously, it’s bad enough anytime when top Democrats share a platform with Republican Gov. Phil Scott. But one week before Election Day? After months and months of the governor shitting on the Democrats every time he gets a chance?

Look, I realize this was one of those sicky-sweet “We Vermonters Are Special” events in which Our Leaders pay homage to our most cherished myths about ourselves. But did anyone give a thought to the political implications of this? I mean, you can be a True Vermonter and still believe that your party is better than the other one. You can still act like your party might be seriously trying to defeat the person you chose to favor with an admiring gaze.

For those tuning in late, Democratic Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas held a joint press conference Tuesday with Republican Gov. Phil Scott to talk about election security and the importance of civility in our politics. Great, fine, I agree. Civility is a good thing, and it’s nice anytime any Republican deigns to acknowledge the integrity of our electoral system. But let’s not pretend this isn’t a serious contest in which the other guy is trying to beat the pants off you. Because he is.

Seeing this made me wonder, has Copeland Hanzas ever made an appearance with her party’s actual nominee, Esther Charlestin? And I don’t mean sharing a stage with the entire ticket at the state party convention. I mean an event where you say nice things about her and make a public show of support. Maybe she has, I don’t know. But there’s been damn little from the VDP’s most prominent members, even by their dismal standards of giving lip service to their party’s gubernatorial nominees.

Update. I’ve been told that Copeland Hanzas has, indeed, done her share of campaigning with Charlestin — or perhaps even more. Good on her. I still think it’s unseemly to validate Scott’s image so close to Election Day.

In fact, Copeland Hanzas may have given more aid and comfort to Phil Scott at yesterday’s event than she’s provided for Charlestin through the length of the campaign. The presser got widespread positive coverage in our print, digital and electronic media — definitely more coverage than any event in Charlestin’s campaign. And it underscored Scott’s selling point to non-Republican voters: that he’s an acceptable choice for governor even if he plays for the other team.

It’s almost as if Copeland Hanzas is one of those Democrats who’s biding their time until Scott leaves the stage and wants to be at the front of the line for her party’s nomination the next time she thinks it’s a prize worth possessing. It’s almost as if Copeland Hanzas wants to maintain some kind of relationship with Scott, even as he routinely trashes everyone else in her party — and largely ignores his actual opponent in the race.

It’s almost as if her own political future is more important than her party’s.

That’s harsh, but really now. In taking part in that joint presser, Copeland Hanzas was basically saying “It’s okay to vote for Phil Scott because NICE GUY” when he’s spent the whole campaign showing that He. Is. Not. A. Nice. Guy.

Coincidentally, several hours after the presser, VTDigger published a profile of the governor in which he acknowledged that things are not better in Vermont than they were when he took office — and heaped all the blame on legislative Democrats and the laws they’ve enacted over his vetoes. “After the last two years, the answer is no. We’re moving in the wrong direction,” he said.

So what he’s saying is that Vermont was better off during the pandemic than it is now, and it’s all because of those damn Democrats. That’s the Phil Scott definition of civility, of showing respect to your opposition. And Sarah Copeland Hanzas just took a big ol’ scrubby and did her best to whitewash that guy’s political reputation.

Scott & Rodgers Bet Big on a Dying Medium

In the closing weeks of a campaign, candidates and other political actors are required to report mass media expenditures of $500 or more to the Secretary of State within 48 hours. This is designed to publicly expose any large-scale floods of money in a campaign’s closing days. Of course, this depends on somebody in the press paying attention to mass media filings, and so far nobody has. Well, nobody but Your Obedient Serpent.

The most interesting note from recent filings is that Gov. Phil Scott and his ticketmate, Republican LG nominee John Rodgers, filed a total of 17 separate mass media reports on a single day, Monday October 28. Fourteen of them reported major buys of radio ad time, all conducted jointly and with the expenses split evenly between the two campaigns. Two others reported a joint $4,390 TV buy carried out by the Vermont production firm Hen House Media. The 17th filing reported a $2,740 Scott-only TV buy through Hen House which, pardon the pun, is chicken feed for a gubernatorial campaign.

The other 14 reports add up to $36,855 spent on commercial radio. The big winner was VOX AM-FM, which sold an impressive $11,460 in Scott/Rodgers spots on its Burlington-area stations. The rest: $8,000 to the Radio Vermont Group (primarily WDEV), $6,000 to Rutland-based Catamount Radio (105.3 Cat Country, Z97.1 et al), $5,000 to Great Eastern Radio (Frank, Froggy, and the Penguin), $1,006 to Yankee Kingdom Media of Wells River, and $1,000 to Sugar River Radio.

A couple of notes. First, and it pains me to say this as a longtime radio voice, but the medium is dying. I’m old and I worked for decades in radio, and if I don’t listen anymore, then who does? (The only radio I regularly consume is content made available in podcast form.) So why are Scott and Rodgers going so big into radio for their big closing push? It’s a media strategy from a generation ago.

Second, why wait until now? All those ads are going to clutter the airwaves and severely test the patience of those who still listen. Why not start the ads a couple weeks ago?

Third, why is Scott making such an effort to boost Rodgers when the stakes are so much higher in the Legislature?

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It’s Last Call at the Campaign Finance Saloon, and Some of Us Are Already Drunk

Well, it’s not literally last call, but in practical terms it’s pretty damn late. Thanks to universally accessible mail-in voting, the longer a candidate waits to spend money, the less impactful it will be. As a result, some candidates (whose fundraising perhaps outpaced expectations) seem to be shoveling money out the door as quickly as they can.

First, a note about the calendar. In the home stretch of a campaign, the deadlines come thick and fast. Candidates are required to file on October 1, October 15, and November 1. Also, in the 45 days before an election they’re required to report any mass media expenditures of $500 or more within 24 hours. The rationale, I believe, is to provide as much clarity as possible about late-stage campaign activity. The problem is, gaining clarity would require (a) each voter diligently poring over the reports, or (b) robust media coverage of campaign spending. The former is an impossible ask, and the latter is largely a thing of the past given the tremendously reduced ranks of our political press corps.

Anyway. There’s little earthshaking in the new reports; they only cover two weeks. But there are some items worthy of note, and here they are.

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Statewides: The Haves and the Have Nots

The September 1 campaign finance reports crystallized something we already knew: This is shaping up to be an unsurprising political season because there’s such a deep divide between those on top and those trying to get a leg up. The former include Gov. Phil Scott and a whole bunch of Democrats; the latter include every other Republican minus a few who’ve been blessed by the patronage of Burlington’s business elite.

The exception to the Democratic rule: Esther Charlestin, who entered September financially underwater in her long-odds (and getting longer every day) gubernatorial campaign. Somehow, the financial gap between Scott and Charlestin managed to grow in August.

This isn’t a typo: Charlestin has raised only $21,137 and spent $22,309. On primary night, Charlestin told VTDigger she would “go hard” in the general campaign, which meant knocking on doors, seeking endorsements, and “raising a lot more money.”

But she didn’t do that. For the entire month of August, Charlestin raised $4,505, which isn’t anywhere close to “a lot more money.” I can’t say how much of this is her doing and how much is Democratic donors turning their backs; Charlestin didn’t score any donations above $250, and that came from longtime Progressive stalwart Martha Abbott. Hey, Dems: Do you like your candidate or don’t you?

Meanwhile, Scott continues to raise far more money than he needs, and spend money like he’s got an actual battle on his hands instead of an almost certain walkover.

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A Happy Little Primary Night Cash Fire

Tuesday’s primary election turned out to be a snooze. The most interesting development was how much money was wasted trying to unseat a small number of Democratic incumbents. They all won, as far as I can tell.

Firmly atop the Futility Rankings is former TV anchor Stewart Ledbetter, who finished fourth in the race for three state Senate seats in the Chittenden Central district. He raised almost $60,000 and spent a bit under $40,000 (tentative). He “earned” 3,159 votes, which cost him and his well-heeled donors about $12.56 apiece. Bargain!

Elsewhere in the “beat the Democrats” game, House Ways & Means Chair Emilie Kornheiser brushed off a challenge from business-backed Dem Amanda Ellis-Thurber, while the Waterbury duo of Reps. Tom Stevens and Theresa Wood defeated “affordability” Dem Elizabeth Brown, who spent gobs of cash and didn’t really come close to pulling off an upset.

Two quick takeaways: If there’s an anti-tax revolution brewing in the hinterlands, it did not show itself in the results. At all. And those allegedly smart business leaders just squandered a whole lot of money trying to push the Democratic caucuses toward the center. They might have scored one small victory, as Danforth Pewter chief Bram Kleppner took a Democratic nomination for House in Burlington. But that’s about it.

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More Money Than Sense, and Other Notes from the Latest Round of Campaign Finance Reports

August 1 was another campaign finance deadline, the last before our August 13 state primary. As usual, there was plenty of interesting stuff to be found. And as usual, there was a dearth of coverage in our sadly diminished media ecosystem. VTDigger waited a few days to put together a solid campaign finance database helmed by its longtime (by Digger standards) data reporter Erin Petenko. But any effort, by anyone, to identify trends or develop insights? Haven’t seen any.

Meanwhile, those who follow me on Elon’s Hellscape know why I’m late to the party. After doing a fair bit of spadework around the deadline, I came down with Covid. It was a pretty severe case for a few days and I’m still on the mend, but I feel able to put words on the screen for the first time since last Thursday.

Anyway, got some things to say. Let’s do the toplines first and then get to the details.

  • While the vast majority of candidates have trouble scratching a few bucks together, there are a few who have more money than they know what to do with. The primary’s one week away, early voting as been going on for roughly a month, and they’re sitting on large quantities of unspent cash.
  • Many of these hopefuls have been generously funded by a cadre of Burlington-area business types, who may look at their investments post-primary and despair at the improvidence of their strategery.
  • Two candidates got a rocket strapped to their backs by those business leaders in July. John Rodgers, running for lieutenant governor, and Rep. Pat Brennan, running for state Senate. They went from near zero on July 1 to huge, nigh unspendable hauls on August 1. Congrats, I guess?
  • Gov. Phil Scott’s campaign has far outstripped Democrat Esther Charlestin. Why his people are bothering to beat the bushes, I don’t know. I remain convinced that he’d be better advised to mothball his campaign and start a PAC — or a Super PAC — and spread his influence around.
  • The oddities around Thomas Renner’s campaign for lieutenant governor continue to proliferate. His fundraising slowed to a trickle in July, but he spent very little and has a sizeable unspent reserve. I still don’t know what his campaign is about. Or who’s running it, for that matter.
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The Resumé Builder Campaign

The single most disappointing campaign finance report from the July 1 deadline had to be Esther Charlestin’s. The Democratic candidate for governor reported a measly $12,235 in donations, a total that effectlvely sank whatever long-odds hope she had for beating Gov. Phil Scott.

The second most disappointing may have been Thomas Renner’s filing in his bid for lieutenant governor. Renner did better than Charlestin, but his total of $43,194 is not nearly enough to fuel a successful challenge against Progressive/Democratic Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, who entered the race with an $11,158 surplus and has since raised another $111,089.

That total doesn’t include one of the most charming line items in this round of campaign finance filings: Zuckerman gave an in-kind contribution of $420 to himself in “carrots for hand outs at parades.”

Aww, Farmer Dave strikes again.

Anyway, back to Renner.

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It’s Not Quite George Aiken, But It’s Uncomfortably Close

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This election season is shaping up to be both boring as hell and one for the record books. Really, can you think of a comparable set of circumstances in Vermont or anywhere else? We have a Republican governor certain to win re-election. At the same time, no other Republican on the statewide ballot has a hope in Hades. And despite the governor’s efforts to whip up anti-tax frenzy against the Legislature, the Democrats stand a very good chance at retaining their supermajorities because, well, the VTGOP can barely tie its own shoes. At worst, the Dems will retain substantial enough majorities to frustrate the governor even if they can’t win veto overrides by the half-dozen anymore.

You see this becoming reality in the July 1 campaign finance reports, which feature an all-time dismal performance by the only Democratic candidate for governor. It’s not quite George Aiken level — the longtime Republican kingpin famously spent a mere $17.09 on his final Senate re-election bid — but it’s astonishingly bad.

Gubernatorial candidate Esther Charlestin reported total fundraising of $12,235 for her campaign.

For context, Charlestin is no better than the 12th most prolific fundraiser among Democratic candidates in 2024. She trails every fellow statewide Dem, many of whom are facing token opposition at best. She also lags behind five candidates for state Senate: Dems Stewart Ledbetter, Katherine Sims, Kesha Ram Hinsdale and Martine Gulick, and Republican Scott Beck.

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Dean Leaves Dems at the Altar (UPDATED With Another Skedaddle)

The curtain came down on Howard Dean’s Hamlet act this morning. After a few weeks of something approaching suspense, Dean announced he would not run for governor.

And now here we are, 10 days away from the filing deadline for major party candidates and the only Democrat in the race is Esther Charlestin, who is (1) almost entirely unknown, (2) has never run for public office*, and (3) has shown no signs at all of mounting a serious campaign. Not even an underfunded, scrappy effort like those of the last three Democratic candidates for governor.

*Correction: Charlestin has run for, and won a seat on, the Middlebury selectboard.

Former Burlington mayor Miro Weinberger is still pondering*, but really. If Dean’s internal polling showed him ten points behind incumbent Gov. Phil Scott, what could possibly convince Weinberger to step in? Or anyone else, for that matter?

*Whoops, that didn’t age well. Channel 22/44 anchor Lauren Maloney took to Twitter early this afternoon with news that Weinberger does “not intend to be a candidate for public office this fall.”

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Howard Dean Needs to Make a Decision

So I went looking for an image of Howard Dean for this post, and I came across the absolutely perfect specimen: A seven-year-old segment of “Morning Joe” entitled “Howard Dean: Baby Boomers Need To Get Out Of Way Of Young Leaders.” And wearing a Grandpa sweater as he said it:

The baby boomers have got to get out of the way. It’s my generation. I’m happy to advise. I don’t think that we need to be in the forefront anymore.

Maybe the 75-year-old Dean should listen to his 68-year-old self. Or maybe not, I have mixed feelings. But he needs to make a move one way or the other, because the days until filing deadline are flying by and as long as Dean keeps up his Hamlet act, he’s an obstacle to other potential Democratic candidates.

Besides, of course, Poa Mutino. Correction: Mutino is running as an independent, not a Democrat.

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