First, a necessary caveat. Treasurer Mike Pieciak remains the betting favorite to become governor whenever Phil Scott decides to ride off into the sunset in his #14 race car. Pieciak is popular and well-connected in Democratic circles and is a proven fundraiser. He’d also be a fine choice, given his financial and managerial expertise; the next governor is going to inherit many challenges from our risk-averse incumbent. It’ll be kind of a “12 labors of Hercules” situation, and Pieciak has the necessary administrative muscle.
But you know, if we find ourselves in the year 2032 and Charity Clark or Molly Gray or Kesha Ram Hinsdale or Tanya Vyhovsky (or, if you prefer, John Rodgers or Scott Beck) is governor and Pieciak is nowhere to be seen, having pulled a TJ Donovan and abandoned politics in favor of a cushy corporate job, you might look back on today — Wednesday, February 11, 2026 — as the first step down that long sad trail.
I refer to the new issue of Seven Days, featuring Kevin McCallum’s fine writeup of the Democrats’ failure, so far, to identify even a single candidate for governor. It raises the single biggest question in Democratic politics: “Why isn’t Mike Pieciak running?” and provides some unflattering answers.
In politics, you can go from “The Next Big Thing” to “Who Dat?” in the blink of an eye. And while it’s way too early to be writing political obituaries, you’re starting to see a few brown spots on the Pieciak banana.
The most interesting race in the August primary is the Democratic contest for lieutenant governor. Three candidates have already filed: former LG Molly Gray, Democratic operative and Peter Welch staffer Ryan McLaren, and Esther Charlestin, 2024’s sacrificial la — ahem, Democratic candidate for governor. Charlestin, with all due respect, we can dismiss with gratitude for her willingness to serve. This is a race of two well-connected Dems, Gray and McLaren.
Gray was first out of the gate with a truly impressive haul of endorsements including 38 sitting lawmakers and a bunch of high-profile formers like Howard Dean and Kitty Toll.
This week, McLaren formally launched his bid at an Essex restaurant featuring what his campaign called “a packed venue” including “enthusiastic supporters, community leaders, and organizers from across Vermont.” The campaign’s press release boasted its own truly impressive endorser list: former treasurer Beth Pearce, former secretary of state Jim Condos, former LG David Zuckerman*, former House speakers Mitzi Johnson and Shap Smith, and an undisclosed “dozens of current and former members of the Vermont Legislature.” (The release also claimed endorsements from “hundreds of other community leaders,” but McLaren’s campaign website does not offer a list of endorsers.)
*Which ought to end the persistent speculation that Zuckerman will run for something in 2026. I honestly don’t think he will. He’s certainly not making another bid for Vermont’s own bucket of warm piss.
A couple of notes on the press release before I go on. One of those addressing the crowd was Kathryn Becker Van Haste, described as a “veteran Congressional aide and Senate campaign manager,” pointedly not described as a longtime aide to Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. Seems an odd omission considering Bernie’s popularity, but maybe hee didn’t want his name brandished at a Democratic event.
Then there was this unintentional laugh line from Van Haste: “We need someone who doesn’t just want the title, but wants to do the work.” Uh, well, about that. The office of lieutenant governor, with all due respect, is pretty much all title and no work. The LG presides over the state Senate, but can only have an impact on “the work” beyond gavel-banging if allowed to do so by Senate leadership.
Listening to Phil Scott talk is like bathing in a vat of Malt-o-Meal: Sleep-inducing, no stimulative properties, somehow comforting and discomfiting at the same time. If you don’t believe me, just look: Scott’s buddy Lt. Gov. John Rodgers is fixin’ to nod off.
Seriously, this is the second time in a month I took notes on a gubernatorial address only to barely scratch the surface of my legal pad. (Yes, I’m old.)
Which stands to reason. He was never an orator by any means and he’s been in office for nearly a decade. If he had anything new to contribute, he would have done so long ago.
He did try to pretend there was new wine in those old, moth-eaten wineskins but it wasn’t nearly enough to persuade. Every governorship has an expiration date, and this speech was one more sign that Scott’s has come and gone. Not that he won’t win another term if he tries, since all the top-tier Democrats seem to be scared out of their minds to confront him and far too many Dems are happy to keep on voting for him because, I don’t know, he handled Covid pretty well (six years ago) and he’s not Donald Trump?
I mean, he talked about permit reform as the fix for the housing crisis. He complained about the cost of public education. He emphasized enforcement in his approach to crime, juvenile offenders, and substance use. He called for rollbacks or repeal of Democratic initiatives on climate change. Blah blah blah.
Oh, and he had the brass balls to blame Peter Shumlin for our crisis in health care costs. Shumlin, who hasn’t been in office for a decade and who abandoned his single-payer plan in The Year of Our Lord 2014. Scott cited Shumlin’s failed effort and the regulatory regime he did implement as the wellspring of our health care woes.
To which I say, well, who the hell has been governor since January 2017 and why hasn’t he done anything to counteract the alleged poison of Shumlin’s doomed reform plan?
One of Scott’s core efforts to lipstick his pig of a record was his call for reinvention of how state government does its work. As precedent, he cited reforms initiated under Dick Snelling and continued under Howard Dean, and said it was time to refresh that effort for a new era.
You know what it reminded me of? When Scott was first running for governor in 2016, he touted lean management at every opportunity. Lean management, he said, was the key to unlocking huge savings in state government:
I believe we can reduce the operational cost of every agency and department by one cent for every dollar currently spent, in my first year in office. Saving one penny on the dollar generates about $55 million in savings.
The link above is to a piece I wrote in 2020, by which time the phrase “lean management” had long been assigned to the dustbin of bankrupt political schemes. When asked about it in early 2020, Finance Commissioner Adam Greshin said “It’s not necessarily about savings, it’s about maybe spending the same amount of money and providing better value.”
Okay, fine. But that’s not what candidate Scott promised. And if he had made good on his promise, that’d be more than half a billion dollars we could have returned to taxpayers or invested in addressing some of our many challenges.
That was the unfulfilled promise of Scott, the businessman who knew how to make government work better and cheaper. And just like all the other businessmen-turned-politicians before him, he found out that the real-life work of managing government was a hell of a lot harder than he thought.
And now he’s coming back with a vaguely-described plan to reinvent state government. I’ll believe it when I see it. No, wait, I won’t believe it when I see it — I’ll believe it when it produces real, tangible savings. Not holding my breath.
I think Phil Scott has had his chance. He’s had many chances, thanks to his easy-going Real Vermonter charm and the failure of top Democrats to mount the least resistance, to put in the effort needed to rough up his Teflon coat. But it sure looks like we’re stuck with him for a while yet.
I tell you what, the next governor is going to have a massive job on their hands to clean up all the messes Scott leaves behind and all the crises he’s allowed to get worse and worse.
Were you still holding out hope that the very popular Treasurer Mike Pieciak might make a run for governor, becoming the most credible Phil Scott challenger since, I’d say, Sue Minter? (Obligatory clarification: Each Democratic nominee has been worthy, but none have had the resources or unified party support needed to mount a serious challenge to Scott.)
Well, I think you can kiss that little spark goodbye. Because his advisor slash campaign consultant Natalie Silver, one of the most accomplished Democratic operatives of recent years, has jumped off the Mikey Train. She went on some sociopath’s social media platform to announce she’s been hired as campaign manager for Maura Sullivan, a candidate for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s first Congressional district. That seat is currently held by Dem Chris Pappas, who’s running for U.S. Senate.
Silver’s history in brief: She was TJ Donovan’s top aide during most of his stint as attorney general. Since then, she’s worked for then-congressman Peter Welch and managed Becca Balint’s very successful campaign to succeed Welch. In short, she knows how to pick winners or help create them. Silver continued to work for Balint until late 2024, when she started showing up on Pieciak’s campaign finance reports as a consultant.
It was a bit of a curious move. Balint had a safe seat in Congress and the inside track to move up to the Senate whenever the next opening occurred. To me there was only one explanation for switching to Pieciak, who can keep on being Treasurer as long as he wants: She expected him to run for governor and wanted to lead the charge.
Pure speculation on my part, but you can see the reasoning.
Under Silver’s stewardship, Pieciak was far more publicly and politically active than was required for a Treasurer with no discernible Republican opposition. He routinely raised a lot more money than any other Democratic statewide. Which again, seemed to signal a run for higher office.
And now Silver is gone. My take: if Pieciak were running for governor this year, she would have welcomed the challenge. If he’s gonna wait for Phil Scott to die or retire, well, Silver’s not playing that game.
So, who wants to run for governor? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
I’ll say this much for Gov. Phil Scott: He understands the assignment.
Scott delivered his State of the State address Wednesday afternoon, and virtually every one of its 40-odd minutes was devoted to a single subject: Following through on Act 73, the widely unpopular education reform law of 2025.
Speaking in purely political terms, if he wants the Legislature to keep on track with Act 73, he’s going to have to get out in front and spend heavily from his Scrooge McDuck levels of political capital trying to persuade a reluctant public that his vision is the right one. This speech indicates that he’s well aware of the assignment.
It’s only the first step, of course. If he wants to sell Act 73, he’ll have to get out there, criss-crossing the state, lobbying the Legislature, and attaching his name and image to the process. Phil Scott is the only person who can make chicken salad out of the Act 73 chicken shit.
After those first two rows there are 11 more. Declared Gray supporters include nine sitting state senators, 29 state representatives, plus prominent figures such as former governor Howard Dean and former lawmakers Brian Campion, Kitty Toll, and Jessica Brumsted.
It truly is an impressive haul, not only for the numbers but for the ideological spectrum. Team Gray ranges from the Progressive camp to centrist Democrats. If she’s left a lane open for another Democratic candidate, I can’t identify it. The lefty names on the list should help overcome the perception that she’s a policy squish, which helped doom her 2022 bid for Congress.
Not that endorsements are the be-all, end-all. But this is a show of force aimed at avoiding a competitive Democratic primary, and it may well succeed. Curtis-Hoff award winner Ryan McLaren, who’s been an aide to Peter Welch (as U.S. Representative and Senator) since 2015, has been considering a run for the office, but he has to know he’d be facing a very well-connected opponent with far more name recognition. This is not the softest of targets.
So how did we get here? Cue the semi-informed speculation!
The inevitable has occurred, to the surprise of no one paying the slightest attention. Former Senate pro tem Tim Ashe, pictured here alongside some guy, has declared his candidacy for State Auditor*. This has been inevitable since current Auditor Doug Hoffer hired Ashe as his chief deputy back in 2021. It became extra-double inevitable when Hoffer made it clear he would not run for re-election in 2026.
*Credit where credit’s due: Political blogger Matthew Vigneau spotted Ashe’s candidacy filing on December 22, a full ten days before Ashe officially announced. He deserves credit for getting the story first, not that any mainstream media outlet ever gives proper credit to bloggers.
Both men wear the same political label as Democrat/Progressives. Both hail from Burlington. Both have ties to Bernie Sanders. Both are the kind of policy/financial nerds who would make good small-a auditors. All indications are they have worked well together in the capital-A Auditor’s office.
So yeah, of course Ashe is running for Auditor. And assuming the Vermont Republican Party can’t do any better than nominating the likes of H. Brooke Paige, he’s almost certainly going to win.
But the most politically impactful thing about this announcement has nothing to do with the man. It’s all about that D/P thang.
This oddly askew photo of Your Treasurer Mike Pieciak, cropped exactly as it appears above, can be found on his “End-of-Year Survey” webpage, in which Our Man feigns interest in your top priorities for the year 2026. It is, in actual fact, aimed more at building a contact list than shaping Smilin’ Mike’s political agenda.
But okay, I thought, I’ll play along. But before I relate my survey experience, I’m going to skip ahead to a little shocker that came later in the process. Because after you SUBMIT the survey, you’re redirected to a fundraising pitch that includes the following bit of news beneath yet another photo of Smilin’ Mike:
“I’m running for reelection to continue investing in housing, climate resilience, and rebuilding the middle class because every Vermonter matters.”
My first thought: Did I miss his re-election announcement? Is this his re-election announcement? Perhaps. But upon reflection, it’s probably a bit of sloppy work on the part of Team Pieciak, a failure to update the website from his 2024 campaign. (Let’s see if they fix it after they read this, which they will.)
Still, I think it’s just a matter of time before we get the disappointing news. If he was going to run for governor, we would have been hearing about it by now. He’d be charging around the state, fundraising and pressing flesh at every opportunity.
But for the moment, let’s hold onto a shred of hope that we could see a top-shelf Democrat stepping boldly into the arena in 2026 instead of hanging back in the locker room waiting for the reigning champeen to retire. There are only three people with the name recognition and connections to make a serious run: Pieciak, Attorney General Charity Clark, and Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas, who has already announced her run for re-election. It’s gonna take a lot of money, a strong message, and a unified, engaged state party to mount a credible challenge to Gov. Phil Scott.
In a previous fundraising email, Pieciak sought our help in building “a movement.” My thought was, a movement to what, exactly? Re-elect our treasurer by a lopsided margin over some novelty Republican like H. Brooke Paige? The only thing that would qualify as “a movement” in my book is making a run for governor.
This announcement, dated December 1, is still posted on Emerge Vermont’s website. But those “training opportunities” will not happen, at least not in their present format or timetable. Because, per Seven Days, Emerge America just decided to shut down Emerge Vermont in a nationwide move to eliminate state chapters in favor of a regionalized structure.
Emerge Vermont has been a highly effective pipeline for Democratic women who want to enter politics. It has trained hundreds of Vermonters, many of whom are now top elected officials — like U.S. Rep. Becca Balint, Attorney General Charity Clark, Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas, and I don’t know how many state reps, senators, and local officeholders.
Emerge Vermont can be credited for nearly erasing the gender gap in the Legislature. (It would have completely erased it by now except that Republican caucuses are almost entirely male.) Emerge Vermont has also been an invaluable asset for the Vermont Democratic Party, which has benefited from a steady supply of Emerge-trained women ready to run for office. (Vermont Republicans don’t have a counterpart and, as I’ve said before, they would be well advised to get their donors together and create one.)
In short, this is a sad day for gender equality in Vermont, and for Vermont Democrats.
Looks like a real contest is developing in the Chittenden Central state Senate district, where three seats will be up for grabs in 2026. The three sitting solons, who seem likely to run for re-election, may find as many as four other names on the Democratic primary ballot next August.
In other words, Donkey Race!
Chittenden-Central is, geographically speaking, the smallest Senate district by a longshot. On a map it resembles Nepal after encontering an old-fashioned laundry mangle. It includes much of northern and central Burlington, the city of Winooski, a bit of Colchester, the city of Essex Junction, and part of the town of Essex. Politically speaking, it may be the most liberal Senate district in the state. The incumbents are Senate President Pro Tem Phil Baruth, listed on the ballot as a D/P, Democratic Sen. Martine Laroque Gulick, and P/D Sen. Tanya Vyhovsky.
The Vermont Political Observer. 