Ruh-roh, Raggy. Something has gone off the rails in Montpelier.

After several days of lobbying the Senate and slamming its critics, the Scott administration has asked the Senate to, um, postpone its confirmation vote on Zoie Saunders, the governor’s choice for education secretary. (The development was first reported by VTDigger’s Ethan Weinstein and later confirmed by Seven Days’ Alison Novak.)

You know what that means: They don’t have the votes. Which would be perhaps the most embarrassing failure in Scott’s seven-plus years in the corner office. He’s had vetoes overridden before, but that happens to every governor. These confirmation votes are usually perfunctory. Lower-level appointees have, on rare occasion, been rejected, but I haven’t seen any reference to the last time a cabinet nominee was sent packing. Certainly the administration didn’t foresee any trouble, considering that Saunders quit her job in Florida, moved her family to Vermont, and began working as education secretary, all before her confirmation was in the books.

Still, they should have seen it coming. What did they expect, when they nominated someone who’s patently unqualified for the job?

So of course the governor owned up to his mistake and BWAHAHAHAHAHA no he did not. He blamed the whole thing on “misinformation, false assumptions, and politicization” of her nomination by critics and opponents.

Which is a bunch of Grade-A Joe Biden malarkey. The criticism is focused on Saunders’ lack of experience in public schools, her long tenure at a for-profit charter school operator, and — at least from me — her nearly complete lack of any actual administrative experience.

The only specific item of “misinformation” cited by Scott is a fundraising letter sent by Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman which claimed that Saunders had “received an award from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who has subjected Florida’s public schools to the right-wing movement to ban books and censor teachers’ ability to teach factual American history on race and sexuality.”

Quite a mouthful, and not really true. Saunders did win an award from DeSantis’ state Department of Education, but not from the man himself. The rest of Zuckerman’s statement was standard fundraising puffery, and does not reflect — at all — the terms of the debate over Saunders’ record and qualifications.

If that’s all the governor can cite, well, he’s got a very weak case.

The governor’s pleas are apparently falling on unsympathetic ears. Ashley Moore, aide to Senate President Pro Tem Phil Baruth, told Seven Days that the vote “will not be delayed.” Sen. Alison Clarkson cited the press of other business, with the Legislature currently aiming to adjourn in less than two weeks.

Digger managed to conduct a straw poll of all 29 sitting senators (Dick Mazza’s seat remains vacant). A total of 16 stated their intentions on the record; Campion and Sears are joined by three Republicans (Russ Ingalls, Terry Williams and David Weeks) in planning to vote in favor of Saunders. A total of 11 Senators are on the record as “No” votes. Thirteen others professed to be undecided or would not reveal their stance.

Let’s take a look at the undeclareds. I think we can count the four other Republicans in Saunders’ column. (Richard Westman is the only one who might buck the trend.) I feel fairly safe in assuming that centrist (and institutionalist) Democrats Jane Kitchel and Bobby Starr will vote “Yes.” That brings us to 11 No and 11 Yes. Aaarrgh.

The remaining undeclareds are all Dems or Dem/Progs: Baruth, Chris Bray, Clarkson, Ann Cummings, Ruth Hardy, Wendy Harrison, and Ginny Lyons.

My crystal ball is refusing to predict what that bunch will do. It’s quite possible that most of them will choose the conventional route and vote “Yes,” arguing that the governor deserves deference in cabinet selections. But I could also see the “No’ votes achieving a majority. And the governor’s request for a postponement speaks volumes. He doesn’t think he has the votes.