Planet Norm’s increasingly erratic orbit

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Any time a reporter has a few minutes to spare and wants to buy the Vermont media equivalent of a lottery ticket, all they have to do is give once-and-maybe-future-Senator Norm McAllister a call. If he answers the phone, he’s almost certain to say something dumb or offensive or both.

This week’s winner was Terri Hallenbeck of Seven Days, who wrangled a juicy quote from Good Ol’ Norm, whose internal exile has, unsurprisingly, failed improve his perspective. In fact, he’s showing signs of outright conspiratorialism.

The context: Hallenbeck was previewing this week’s Senate vote on marijuana legalization. At the time, it was looking like a very close thing — maybe one vote either way. Which prompted Hallenbeck to observe that this was “the second of two recent legislative initiatives on which [McAllister] might have swayed the results.” (The other one was the paid sick leave bill.) That is, if he hadn’t been suspended in January because of those pesky sexual assault charges.

Take it away, Norm…

Reached at home in Highgate, McAllister said he would have voted against both measures. “I got an idea that’s probably why some people didn’t want me there.”

Yeah, solid thinking. It wasn’t the multiple felony charges or the pending trial or the embarrassment of having an accused felon in their midst. The Real Truth is that Norm McAllister was simply too dangerous and had to be silenced! 

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Debate Roster or Police Lineup: You Make The Call!

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In advance of tonight’s Republican presidential debate, CNN is Tweeting out an unintentionally hilarious promo. The candidate pictures are downright forbidding — they look more like mugshots than anything else. See for yourself:

Yikes. Top row, from left to right: Mafia don, pedophile, real estate con man.

Bottom row: white-collar criminal, creepy stalker

I mean, really. Who chose these images?

Also, too, that Ted Cruz headshot reminds me of something. What is it, what is it…

… Oh yeah.

Blobfish

Giving the name “Deadpool” a whole new meaning

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House Speaker Shap Smith did something unusual this week: he put out a strongly-worded position statement on an issue not currently before the Legislature. More on that in a moment, but first, feast your eyes on this all-kinds-of-wrong picture.

Family fun for everyone!

Family fun for everyone!

That, my friends, is how they’re storing radioactive water at Vermont Yankee, as reported last week by VTDigger’s Mike Faher. That pool, seemingly stretched to the bursting point, is an Intex “Easy Set” swimming pool, advertised as one of “the easiest family and friend-sized pools to set up in the world.”

Yikes.

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Gnats to Fart in Windstorm

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Oh look, a bunch of Republican lawmakers are belatedly getting off the pot.

Vermont state Rep. Kurt Wright, R-Burlington, says approximately 30 Republican lawmakers will endorse Marco Rubio for president on Thursday.

… “He’s the last best chance,” Wright said. “I think the window’s beginning to close.”

Err, “beginning” to close? More like “coming down like a well-greased guillotine.”

Presumably, at least some of these 30 Bravehearts also attended the John Kasich Town Hall last Saturday. None endorsed him, although they were all very happy to be on hand. But I guess they realize that Foxy Grandpa’s window was never open, let alone “beginning to close.” It’ll be interesting to see how many top Republicans show up at the just-anounced Kasich Town Hall on Monday at Castleton University.

The Rubot also got the coveted (cough, choke) endorsement of former Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, who praised Florida’s Usually Absentee Senator as a “strong conservative” with “bold conservative ideas.”

Yeah, that’ll move the needle. Look out, Trump: Brian Dubie is comin’ to get ya!

Also, gosh, I didn’t realize Dubie was such a fan of strong conservatism. I guess that Jim-Douglas-without-the-charm act he pulled in 2010 was just a load of horse hockey.

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For Bernie, the going only gets tougher

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Bernie Sanders has gotten farther in this presidential race than anyone this side of Tad Devine ever believed. I am among the happy throng that has tried to glass-ceiling the Bernie Insurgency, only to see him smash right through. And I’m prepared to be wrong again, but I firmly believe what I’m about to write.

Bernie Sanders has reached his high point.

And I have the numbers to back that up.

Yes, he finished a strong second to Hillary Clinton in Nevada. Yes, he has one strong win and two narrow losses so far. But when I look at the upcoming primary calendar, I see a lot of bad news in Bernie’s future.

Let’s start with South Carolina, where Clinton has a decisive edge — and Bernie’s own campaign appears to be waving the white flag. They deny it, naturally; but his schedule argues otherwise. South Carolina Democrats vote on Saturday, but Sanders is spending almost the entire week in states that vote on Super Tuesday and beyond.

When asked about his Palmetto prospects, Bernie put on a happy face.

“We came to South Carolina, and, if you look at the polls, we were at 7, 8, 9 percent in the polls. We were 50, 60, 70 points behind. We have waged a very vigorous campaign. We have closed the gap very significantly,” he said.

He said the same thing after losing in Nevada. And it’s true; but it sounds a lot like Marco Rubio claiming victory after the latest loss. At some point, you have to start winning.

Beyond South Carolina, you look at the upcoming contests, and the odds against Bernie become crystal clear. (Like a glass ceiling, heh.)

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A trip down Memory Lane (and a turn into Nightmare Alley)

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Hey, remember when Donald Trump held a rally at the Flynn Center? And the Vermont Republican Party took pains to distance itself?

Just to refresh your memory, here’s the statement released before the Trump event by VTGOP Executive Directory Jeff Bartley:

We learned late today through media reports that Donald Trump will be making a brief campaign stop in Vermont The Vermont Republican Party did not invite Mr. Trump and has no role in his event. Like all presidential candidates, he is welcome to share his thoughts with Vermonters. We hope all candidates will articulate, in a responsible and respectful Vermont way, their ideas for helping to make our state and or nation more affordable and prosperous for working class families. And we look forward to the outcome of the primary campaign between our very diverse group of candidates.

I thought it’d be timely to revisit those words, now that The Donald shattered his “glass ceiling” in Nevada with 46 percent of the caucus vote. With each passing day, he looks more and more like the irresistible force, while the other candidates are decidedly movable objects.

Meanwhile, the obvious choice of Vermont Republicans, John Kasich, “won” 3.6 percent of the Nevada vote. Even before the results came in, he was the subject of a juicy headline Monday morning at Politico:

GOP to Kasich: Get out

A string of elected officials, GOP insiders and prominent donors officially threw their support behind Rubio on Monday, calling him their last chance to take down Donald Trump. Their statements had another common theme. Some explicitly called for Kasich to quit, while others sent the same message by saying the Ohio governor’s ongoing presence is holding Rubio back.

The story is especially poignant in these circles, since it came only two days after Vermont Republicans couldn’t stop grinning while they shared a stage with Kasich.

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A warning shot across Keurig’s unrecyclable bow

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Here’s an interesting tidbit from across the pond. Citing environmental concerns, the city of Hamburg, Germany has banned Keurig-style coffee pods from all government office buildings.

Lest you think, “Oh, isn’t that cute?” bear in mind that Hamburg has a population of 1.7 million people. It’s the second biggest city in Germany, and the eighth largest in the European Union.

As part of a guide to green procurement, the German city of Hamburg last month introduced a ban on buying “certain polluting products or product components” with council money. The ban includes specific terms for “equipment for hot drinks in which portion packaging is used” – specifically singling out the “Kaffeekapselmaschine”, or coffee capsule machine, which accounts for one in eight coffees sold in Germany.

“These portion packs cause unnecessary resource consumption and waste generation, and often contain polluting aluminum,” the report says.

This isn’t a Big Deal, not yet; but it is a Deal, and it ought to be causing a bit of concern at Keurig Green Mountain’s Waterbury headquarters. Because if Hamburg becomes a trendsetter, Keurig could start seeing large markets snap shut.

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The VPR Poll: Everything You Know Is Wrong

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Previously in this space, I looked at The VPR Poll’s reading of the race for governor. To encapsulate: Phil Scott has a huge early lead, Bruce Lisman’s in the crapper, and the two Democratic candidates are still trying to build identities with a largely uninvolved electorate.

The poll is an important snapshot of the race — really, our first since last fall, when the field was still a work in progress. But even more interesting are the issues results, which campaign builders ought to be examining closely. Because the message, as Firesign Theater once put it, is

Everything You Know Is Wrong

Well, maybe not everything, but a whole lot of things.

Issues that are supposed to be driving forces in 2016? Eh, the voters don’t much care.

Positions that could make or break a campaign? Over and over again, The People fail to conform to conventional wisdom.

Darn people!

Generally, the poll depicts a populace that’s more or less okay with how things are going and not especially engaged in politics. This, despite an ongoing barrage of doom-and-glooming by Republicans and certain interest groups.

Examples: A broad desire to stay the course or go even further on health care reform; widespread acceptance of large-scale renewables; strong endorsement of Vermont’s efforts on climate change; healthy support for the state’s school consolidation efforts; and huge majorities in favor of modest gun-control measures.

After the jump: the details.

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Warning! Warning! Danger, Will Robinson!

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The Phil Scott campaign is reacting to the very positive results of the VPR Poll in a rather curious way: With a hysterical email blast warning of dirty political tricks.

By an unnamed rival campaign.

That haven’t happened yet.

Sheesh.

Here’s the letter:

We need your help!

A new poll from Vermont Public Radio and Castleton University Polling Institute shows strong support for Phil’s positive message and clear priorities.

Now we are already hearing from several sources that one of Phil’s opponents is planning to go negative! 

Can you help us ensure the focus stays on the issues that matter, like growing our economy and making Vermont more affordable?

With your support, we will run a positive, issue-oriented campaign that focuses on why Phil is the best and most qualified choice for Vermont. 

(Italics in the original letter.)

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The VPR Poll: the gubernatorial race

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Big day in Vermont politics. VPR commissioned a wide-ranging poll from the Castleton Polling Institute. During today’s “Vermont Edition,” there was a painstakingly thorough (read: boring) examination of the presidential results, which contained no real surprises*. What I was most interested in is the gubernatorial race: as far as I can tell, this is the first real poll taken since the field took its current shape.

* Bernie’s whompin’ Hillary; Trump has a big lead over Rubio and Kasich, with Cruz in fourth.

The poll also contains some striking findings on issues, which I’ll address in a separate post. Preview: several “hot-button” issues don’t seem to concern the electorate very much.

First, a note on the gubernatorial numbers. All respondents are included in both the Democratic and Republican races. The question is: “Of the two candidates running for the [Democratic/Republican] nomination for Governor, which do you prefer?” Republicans got to weigh in on the Democratic race, and vice versa. So the results may be a little funky — although to be honest, the Dem/Repub/Indy breakdowns aren’t substantially different from the overall numbers. Still, take these results with a small grain of salt.

Topline for the gubernatorial findings: Phil Scott is way out in front, and will be difficult to catch.

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