Category Archives: 2024 election

Outta Nowhere

Political surprise of the week: This guy taking on an incumbent statewide officeholder.

Guy in question is Thomas Renner, deputy mayor of Winooski and newly declared candidate for lieutenant governor. You know, the office currently occupied by David Zuckerman? Yep, that one.

My initial reaction involved the letters W, T, and F. I mean, he’s 34, he’s held office in the ‘Ski for only three years, has never run anywhere else, and he’s getting a late start. The primary is on August 13, but early voting will begin in about six weeks.

Zuckerman, meanwhile, is arguably Vermont’s most successful state-level politician this side of Phil Scott, having served three terms as LG and a total of 18 years before that in the Legislature. The only blot on his escutcheon: a 2020 thumping at the hands of the governor. But losing to Scott is no shame, and he made a nice comeback two years later by retaking the lieutenant governorship.

But there are reasons not to dismiss Mr. Renner out of hand.

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Howard Dean Needs to Make a Decision

So I went looking for an image of Howard Dean for this post, and I came across the absolutely perfect specimen: A seven-year-old segment of “Morning Joe” entitled “Howard Dean: Baby Boomers Need To Get Out Of Way Of Young Leaders.” And wearing a Grandpa sweater as he said it:

The baby boomers have got to get out of the way. It’s my generation. I’m happy to advise. I don’t think that we need to be in the forefront anymore.

Maybe the 75-year-old Dean should listen to his 68-year-old self. Or maybe not, I have mixed feelings. But he needs to make a move one way or the other, because the days until filing deadline are flying by and as long as Dean keeps up his Hamlet act, he’s an obstacle to other potential Democratic candidates.

Besides, of course, Poa Mutino. Correction: Mutino is running as an independent, not a Democrat.

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Governor No Prepares to Strike Again — UPDATED With More Potential Vetoes, Yay

The Vermont Legislature just wrapped up a fairly productive session, all told. Or should I say it will have been productive if Gov. Phil Scott doesn’t whip out the ol’ veto pen (Only in Journalism) and kill a whole bunch of bills.

And by all indications, that’s exactly what he’s about to do.

Might I take a moment to say, once again, that any Democrat who votes for Phil Scott isn’t serious about the Democratic agenda? Because the Legislature will have all it can do to override a couple, maybe three, gubernatorial vetoes. Even when you’ve got a supermajority, overrides are tough. So as long as Scott is governor, the Democratic vision for Vermont will remain frustratingly (or, if you don’t like Democratic policies, hearteningly) incomplete. Especially when it comes to climate change, where the governor is in position to decimate what the Legislature has accomplished.

There’s already been one veto this year, on the flavored tobacco ban. Override failed on a close vote in the Senate. By my unofficial and possibly incomplete count, we are probably in for six more. At least. Here’s the list.

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Congratulations to the VTGOP for Finding a Candidate to Run Against Becca Bal — Oh.

The Vermont Republican Party’s effort to build a strong statewide ticket are proceeding apace. Mark Coester, who has once before been disavowed by the VTGOP, has announced he’s running for Congress. He is, so far, the only Republican challenger to Democratic U.S. Rep. Becca Balint.

Coester is seen here in the only video that comes up when you search YouTube for “Mark Coester Vermont.” It’s a 21-second clip of Coester meandering along the U.S.-Mexico border wall, pausing in front of a small section that’s either unfinished or damaged, gesturing at it, and saying “Ran out of concrete?” He’s carrying a big ol’ sidearm, just in case he has to Halt A Incursion or something.

This is kind of normal behavior for Coester, whose campaign website promotes him as a man who would bring “common sense and traditional values to Washington, D.C.” He speaks of government accountability and term limits and 100% Fair and Honest Elections and — my favorite bit — decries “the constant bickering, finger pointing and blame games that go on in politics.”

If you’ve read my coverage of far-right stealth candidates, you’ll recognize the warning signs. This guy is a Trump-lovin’ conspiratorialist.

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“I Am Big. It’s the Pictures That Got Small.”

Howard Dean floated onto his balcony this afternoon, favored the adoring crowd below with a regal wave, turned his back, and disappeared into the billowing curtains.

Okay, not really. What he did was issue a lengthy, self-indulgent statement about his dalliance with running for governor that didn’t actually make a commitment either way. In other words, stay tuned!

Methinks he’s getting a kick out of having #vtpoli-land hanging on his every word for the first time since he ran for president nearly a generation ago.

All he said about running was that he would hold “a press event when and if I file.” Curiously, he then sent a text to VTDigger declining its interview request because he is “not doing interviews until I file.”

Until, eh? Not “Until or unless”? Freudian slip? Intentional foreshadowing? Misdirection for the sake of drama? Only Dean knows for sure.

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Howard Dean?

Well, well. I did not have a “Howard Dean for Governor” trial balloon on my Bingo card, but here we are. WCAX-TV’s Calvin Cutler got the scoop:

Multiple sources inside the Democratic Party tell Channel 3 News that Dean is “seriously considering” running in the 2024 election, two decades after he left office the first time.

Contacted out of state where he is visiting family, Dean did not confirm or deny the report, saying in a text message: “I’ll make a statement at the appropriate time when I’m in Vermont.”

This was apparently a topic of much conversation at last night’s kickoff event for Treasurer Mike Pieciak’s re-election bid.

My first thoughts went to almost exactly this time two years ago, when Gov. Phil Scott looked like a shoo-in for re-election and former lieutenant governor Doug Racine made it known (and I got that scoop) that he was pondering a bid. Racine told me “it depends on the level of support” he could count on from the Vermont Democratic Party and its donors. Nothing much came of it.

I thought the same thing about this sudden Dean talk, that it was a way for a pastured workhorse to get back in the discussion and make some news but not much more. However, I have been told by a reliable source that nominating petitions for Dean are being circulated. That, in itself, is a step closer to actuality than Racine ever got.

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…Or Maybe Everybody Just Hates Joan: A Deeper Dive into the Mayoral Numbers

My recent post about the Burlington mayoral election drew a fair bit of intelligent response. Even on Twitter, which used to happen all the time but never in the post-Elon hellscape of X. Much of the discussion came from Democrats with fact-based arguments against the idea that Burlington is a Progressive town. Some good information, which makes me think that Burlington is less a Progressive town and more a swing town that can go either way depending on circumstances and candidate quality. And inspires me to write a follow-up taking a closer look at some telling statistics.

Let’s start with defeated Democratic hopeful Joan Shannon, seen above commiserating with campaign manager and soon-to-be-ex-councilor Hannah King. The failure of Shannon’s campaign was partially masked in the overall vote totals. She did draw 500-plus more votes than Miro Weinberger in 2021, but she badly underperformed Democratic council candidates in wards where there was a Democrat on the ballot. Shockingly so, in fact.

One more thing to emphasize up top: It wasn’t the student vote. Democrats can stop complaining about that. The numbers say quite the opposite; Progressive winner Emma Mulvaney-Stanak performed strongly in non-student areas of the city.

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Top VTGOP Official Accuses… VTGOP? … of Deploying a “Dishonest Mechanism”

Former Vermont Republican Party chair — and current Vermont Republican Party Treasurer — Deb Billado has a beef with, um, the Vermont Republican Party. Billado is reportedly “the head of the Donald Trump campaign team in Vermont.” She claims that state party leaders fixed the presidential primary in Nikki Haley’s favor, presumably when she wasn’t in the room. From the Vermont Daily Chronicle:

“Republican leadership invited that very dishonest mechanism to get someone elected and nominated, only to have them drop out the next morning,” Billado said in a phone call to VDC Wednesday morning.

The irony is so thick you couldn’t cut it with a machete. Billado’s beau idéal is the all-time champion of election skulduggery, having (1) sought Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, (2) tried to blackmail Ukraine into providing bogus evidence against Hunter Biden, (3) sought foreign interference in the 2020 election, (4) fought to overturn the results of that vote after being told over and over again, by aides, lawyers, and the courts that there was no evidence of fraud, and (5) sparked an attempted insurrection on January 6, 2021.

Billado is fine with ignoring all of that. What she sees as a “dishonest mechanism” is Vermont’s long-established open primary system in which any registered voter can participate in the party primary of their choosing. She whines that only Republicans should be allowed to vote in the primary. Which would be a neat trick, since Vermont law does not allow voters to register a party preference. Perhaps she’d administer a loyalty oath at the polling place.

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Maybe Burlington Is Just a Progressive Town

Before Town Meeting Day, I was bracing myself for what could have been the most reactionary election in who knows how long. Conventional wisdom had it that Burlington Progressives would be punished for being “soft on crime,” and Vermont voters would revolt against rising property taxes by voting down school budgets.

As it turned out, none of that really happened. Sure, roughly one-third of school budgets lost. In a normal year, no more than a handful of budgets go down to defeat. But one-third doesn’t exactly constitute carnage. It definitely sends a message to state policymakers that something needs to be done, and if legislators are smart they’ll pass something significant before the session ends. What it says to me, in total, is that Vermont voters really like their schools and are willing to dig pretty deep to support public education, but their patience and resources are not unlimited.

In Burlington, meanwhile, the expected backlash to Progressive crime policy didn’t materialize. Councilor and Democratic mayoral nominee Joan Shannon, pictured above with Councilor Hannah King, who lost her bid for re-election and managed Shannon’s losing campaign), was seemingly on a glide path to the mayoralty after years of media drumbeating over CHAOS IN THE QUEEN CITY. But it turned out that voters weren’t there for an enforcement-heavy response to public safety concerns.

The campaign centered around the issue, but Mayor-elect Emma Mulvaney-Stanak promoted a comprehensive agenda that addressed the causes as well as the consequences of the public safety situation. Shannon emphasized boosting the police force (and ragging on the Progs for their 2020 vote to cut the BPD, and it might be time to retire that talking point).

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The Operation Was a Success, But the Patient Died

Congratulations to Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley for her big victory in the Vermont prim — what’s that you say? She ended her campaign after losing every Super Tuesday state besides Vermont?

Oh. Well, then. As Lou Reed put it, “Something flickered for a minute, and then it vanished and was gone.”

It’s pretty clear that Haley won Vermont thanks to our wide-open primary system in which any voter can select any primary ballot. The numbers from last night show that Haley’s win was fueled by independents and Democrats wanting to stick it to Donald Trump.

I took a deep comparative dive into the 2024 and 2020 presidential primaries. Now, every election has its own dynamics so no two are directly comparable, but the numbers are overwhelming. Trump’s vote total was virtually identical: 33,139 in 2024 versus 33,019 in 2020.

But that 33,019 represented 84% of the 2020 Republican primary electorate. Last night, 33,139 only represented 45% of the vote. With the same number of votes, Trump won overwhelmingly four years ago and lost by a significant margin this time.

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