Category Archives: 2024 election

Well, Now They’d All Better Know What They’re Doing

Going to abandon my usual policy of sticking to Vermont politics. Perhaps I can be permitted an exception for one of the most consequential events in our nation’s history — the decision of President Joe Biden to abandon his bid for re-election.

When Sen. Peter Welch came out in favor of Biden’s withdrawal on July 10, I wrote that he had better know what he’s doing. In the wake of Biden’s decision, that sentiment now applies to everyone in Democratic Party circles, up to and including the President himself. They’d damn well better know what they’re doing. And they’d damn well better not screw this up, which seems to be the default setting for the Democrats going all the way back (at least) to 1968, when I was a teenager staring down the barrel of the Vietnam War and the party tore itself apart. And still nearly won the election. (Probably should have, if not for Richard Nixon making back-door deals with South Vietnamese leadership. As reported in Garrett Graff’s Watergate.)

1968 was the last time a sitting Democratic President voluntarily relinquished the position. I’m not drawing comparisons beyond that, because the circumstances were wildly different. They were, in fact, much more fraught, much direr, than the current situation. And yes, the Democrats nearly won that election.

I am saying that the process of choosing Biden’s replacement has got to be cleaner than the trainwreck that happened after LBJ’s withdrawal, or the Dems risk handing control of the country to Donald Trump.

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Sooooo Many Campaign Finance Reports

Well, I didn’t really want to wade through all the campaign finance reports filed by House candidates on July 1. But there were questions I wanted to answer, so wade through them I did.

Actually, not all. I didn’t pay much attention to incumbents. I was mainly interested in new candidates. What follows is a daunting amount of detail, so let me give you some topline findings right away.

  • A lot of candidates, both new and incumbent, are having trouble complying with campaign finance law. Fortunately for them, the penalties for noncompliance are minimal to nonexistent.
  • There’s been a lot of talk about centrists running as Democrats with financial backing from rich folks and business leaders. What I found, to my mild surprise, is that there aren’t really that many of ’em. Hardly enough to qualify as a trend. But it is worth focusing attention on those trying to poach Democratic seats.
  • The Republican field of new House candidates is pretty much a financial wasteland. With a few exceptions. Emphasis on “few.”
  • One of the most successful funders of Republican House candidates is the Rutland GOPAC. But they operate on a modest scale, and aren’t likely to move the needle appreciably.

Okay, on to the details, whether you want them or not. But hey, this is a place for political sickos, so on we go.

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John Rodgers Has Money Now?, and Other Notes on Mass Media Filings

Well, well, well. Former Democratic state senator John Rodgers, now running for lieutenant governor as a Republican, seems to have searched for loose change in the sofa cushions and maybe the console of his (guessing here) pickup truck. Because after reporting no campaign activity whatsoever on July 1, he has now gone and spent a cool $10,400 on advertising with Radio Vermont, a.k.a. WDEV Radio.

We won’t know where the money came from until August 1, the next campaign finance deadline, but candidates are required to promptly report mass media expenditures of $500 or more when they occur close to an election. Rodgers filed his mass media report on July 11.

There are some other mass media filings of note, but let’s stick with Rodgers for the moment. I have to think — in a perverse way, I hope — he’s got some serious money behind him and that this big expenditure is part of a broader plan, because spending $10K on radio ads in central Vermont, by itself, is kind of a headscratcher. And I say that as a veteran radio guy whose brain still conjures up the radio version of the naked-in-public nightmare. (Which basically involves every possible interruption or technical problem sabotaging a live broadcast while I’m sitting at the microphone. Yep, radio in the blood.)

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Peter Welch Had Better Know What He’s Doing

I haven’t written about the Joe Biden debate aftermath because (1) this is a blog about Vermont politics and (2) I have no earthly idea what’s really going on, and neither do you.

But U.S. Sen. Peter Welch has now weighed in, taking to the opinion pages of the Washington Post to become the first Democratic senator to call for Biden to withdraw from the presidential campaign. So (1) the story is fair game for a #vtpoli blog and (2) I have thoughts.

First of which is, it’s absolutely uncharacteristic for Welch to be the first soldier over the parapet and into No Man’s Land. Welch is a cautious consensus-builder, best known in the House for being a loyal member of Nancy Pelosi’s team and for his diligent efforts to find common ground with rural Republicans. I don’t remember a single time when Welch was out in front of any issue, let alone the political hot potato of the season.

And that makes me think he has solid grounds for this decision. Welch is never, ever one to go off half cocked.

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The Resumé Builder Campaign

The single most disappointing campaign finance report from the July 1 deadline had to be Esther Charlestin’s. The Democratic candidate for governor reported a measly $12,235 in donations, a total that effectlvely sank whatever long-odds hope she had for beating Gov. Phil Scott.

The second most disappointing may have been Thomas Renner’s filing in his bid for lieutenant governor. Renner did better than Charlestin, but his total of $43,194 is not nearly enough to fuel a successful challenge against Progressive/Democratic Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, who entered the race with an $11,158 surplus and has since raised another $111,089.

That total doesn’t include one of the most charming line items in this round of campaign finance filings: Zuckerman gave an in-kind contribution of $420 to himself in “carrots for hand outs at parades.”

Aww, Farmer Dave strikes again.

Anyway, back to Renner.

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So the VTGOP’s Big Plan Is… Try to Take Jane Kitchel’s Senate Seat? Is That It?

Previously we looked at the dire financial straits of Esther Charlestin’s candidacy for governor, where she barely cleared $12,000 in a race that calls for, by Howard Dean’s reckoning, at least 164 times that much money. Now it’s time to look at the Republican side of the ledger, where pretty much everybody can rightly cry poverty.

With one notable exception.

That would be state Rep. Scott Beck, running for the Northeast Kingdom Senate seat currently occupied by retiring Democrat Jane Kitchel. Beck has raised a rather stunning $35,565. (His likely Democratic opponent, Amanda Cochrane, has raised a respectable $7,165 and enjoys Kitchel’s active support.) Beck appears to be the only Republican candidate who has raised more than enough money to run a respectable race. Besides, of course, Gov. Phil Scott, The Exception To Every Republican Rule,

More to the point, Beck and the governor are about the only two Republicans who aren’t complete embarrassments when it comes to fundraising. Which shows you just how desperate the party’s situation is.

The VTGOP ought to be in a position for a nice little comeback in the Legislature, threatening to end the Dem/Prog supermajorities that imperil every single one of Scott’s many, many, many vetoes. And they’re not.

Instead, the wistful eyes of the donor class have largely turned to putative Democrat Stewart Ledbetter’s bid to wrest away a Senate seat from liberal Democrat Martine Gulick or Progressive firebrand Tanya Vyhovsky. Ledbetter has amassed the largest campaign kitty of any Statehouse candidate thanks primarily to Burlington-area business leaders. You know, the very people who would historically be bankrolling Republicans.

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It’s Not Quite George Aiken, But It’s Uncomfortably Close

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This election season is shaping up to be both boring as hell and one for the record books. Really, can you think of a comparable set of circumstances in Vermont or anywhere else? We have a Republican governor certain to win re-election. At the same time, no other Republican on the statewide ballot has a hope in Hades. And despite the governor’s efforts to whip up anti-tax frenzy against the Legislature, the Democrats stand a very good chance at retaining their supermajorities because, well, the VTGOP can barely tie its own shoes. At worst, the Dems will retain substantial enough majorities to frustrate the governor even if they can’t win veto overrides by the half-dozen anymore.

You see this becoming reality in the July 1 campaign finance reports, which feature an all-time dismal performance by the only Democratic candidate for governor. It’s not quite George Aiken level — the longtime Republican kingpin famously spent a mere $17.09 on his final Senate re-election bid — but it’s astonishingly bad.

Gubernatorial candidate Esther Charlestin reported total fundraising of $12,235 for her campaign.

For context, Charlestin is no better than the 12th most prolific fundraiser among Democratic candidates in 2024. She trails every fellow statewide Dem, many of whom are facing token opposition at best. She also lags behind five candidates for state Senate: Dems Stewart Ledbetter, Katherine Sims, Kesha Ram Hinsdale and Martine Gulick, and Republican Scott Beck.

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For VTGOP Chair, Abstention Was the Better Part of Valor

The Vermont Republican Party executive committee tried to keep the lowest possible profile in deciding to waive its rule against nominating convicted felons*. Understandable; even the most diehard Trumpers possess some capacity for embarrassment. Their meeting last Wednesday was a closed-door affair. If it was recorded, which I doubt, the audio or video have not been made public. The party did not disclose the vote total; its press release said only that the Trump exemption passed by “a narrow margin.” And don’t expect any details from the written record of the proceedings, which party chair Paul Dame characterized as “some kind of minutes” that “don’t capture the nature of the discussion necessarily.”

*As I predicted it would. Went way out on a limb there.

Yeah, well, sure.

But as it happens, I have received a breakdown of the vote from a highly reliable source (who is not a member of the committee, and that’s all I’ll say about them). And wouldn’t you know it, Dame could have blocked the exemption — but he chose not to cast a vote at all.

Brave man.

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The Best Senator Money Can Buy

I guess Stewart Ledbetter is serious about this midlife crisis “running for office” thing. Because of all the campaign finance filings submitted by yesterday’s deadline, the former WPTZ anchor slash cromulent host of “Vermont This Week” reported a truly eye-popping $49,189 in donations — the vast majority in increments of more than $100.

And if there was any doubt about his centrist leanings, a perusal of his donor list would drown all uncertainty under a tsunami of conservative and business community cash. The Big Boys want to see Ledbetter in the Senate.

Where do I even begin? How about this: Ledbetter got big-dollar gifts from a total of 51 people. The average donation from each? A smidge under $900. And heck, if you roll in the 50 small donors, the average single donation to Ledbetter for Senate was a hefty $477.12.

He’s rollin’ in it. Can he buy a Senate seat? It remains to be seen, but he’s sure as hell trying.

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Art Peterson Is Not Quite Done Being Vermont’s #1 Elected Bigot

When state Rep. Art Peterson leaves the House at the end of his current term (words that should be sung aloud or shouted from the rooftops, not merely written in digital form), the unofficial title of Worst Person In the Legislature will be up for grabs.

Peterson, shown above in a slightly retouched version of his official picture, has once again figuratively pulled down his drawers and shown his ass to the world in a hateful and unnecessary response to a routine announcement from Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas.

She sent an email last Wednesday to members of the Rutland County delegation announcing that her office would be staffing a table at the Rutland Pride Celebration on Saturday, and inviting the county’s electeds to stop by.

Peterson, being who he is, took this like a rabid bull seeing a rainbow flag in front of his nose. His response, which he cc’d to members of the county delegation:

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