Category Archives: 2016 election

Early voting on fast pace in Vermont

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We’re hearing reports from various states that a whole lot of people are voting early. And the evidence, with a couple of exceptions, is that the trend favors the Democrats. In key state after key state, they are outperforming President Obama’s 2012 pace while Donald Trump is lagging behind Mitt Romney’s performance.

And how are things in Vermont? you may ask.

We’re way ahead of 2014, and on pace to threaten our record for early voting, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

As of Friday afternoon, the state had received more than 51,000 requests for early ballots, and are getting an average of 2,000 per day.  Absentee requests have already exceeded the 2014 total — which was lower than 2012 because so many voters were disaffected by the Shumlin/Milne race. (2014 total turnout 196,000; in 2012, it was over 301,000.)

As of midafternoon Thursday, voters had returned nearly 25,000 ballots. That’s getting close to 2014’s total — and we still have more than two weeks until Election Day.

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Another xenophobic VTGOP candidate

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This week has brought controversy to Republican House candidate Michael McGarghan and Burlington School Board member David Kirk for posting hateful content on their social media accounts.

Well, we’ve got another hot one: Bill Lawrence, candidate for the House in the Chittenden-3 district, which includes Jericho and Underhill. And I’m guessing that if we spent a few hours trolling the social media accounts of Republican candidates, we’d find more than a few like McGarghan (who Tweeted that President Obama should be hanged) and Mark Donka, whose Facebook extremism has previously been chronicled in these pages.

I might humbly suggest to Don Turner that he should teach his would-be candidates not to post egregiously awful stuff on Twitter or Facebook. I mean, you don’t want to make it appear that the VTGOP is a party full of racists, conspiratorialists, and extremists, do you now?

Bill Lawrence, to judge by his social media content, is a very conservative Republican, a Donald Trump supporter, formerly an enthusiastic backer of Bruce Lisman, a racist and a xenophobe (especially when it comes to Muslims), and an aficionado of far-right conspiracy theories.

He certainly has the First Amendment right to post whatever garbage he wants to. And I have the right to inform the good people of Chittenden-3 what kind of person is tainting their ballots.

Mr. Lawrence’s proclivities were brought to my attention by a fellow liberal Tweeter named Scott Pavek (@RSPavek), who RT’d several of Lawrence’s more intemperate Tweets. Good thing, too; Lawrence seems to have closed down his Twitter account after his posts were discovered.

Too bad we have screenshots. Also too bad that Lawrence hasn’t thought to scrub his Facebook page, which has quite a few other nasty pieces of alt-right propaganda.

And here, submitted for your consideration, are some entries from the Lawrence Files.

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On the VPR Poll

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Must have been some soiled britches at VTGOP headquarters when the news came out: a new poll shows the race for governor is a statistical dead heat.

If it’s accurate, of course. Usual caveats apply. Doesn’t help that this is the only pre-election poll we’re going to get, since VPR is the only media organization putting up money for surveys this year.

But for the sake of argument, let’s assume it’s reasonably on target.

There were reasons to believe the race would be close, but the almost universal assumption (me included) was that Phil Scott was the front-runner because of his name recognition, his inoffensive image, and Vermonters’ presumed post-Shumlin fatigue with liberal policymaking. Minter, by comparison, was known (to the extent she was known at all) mainly as a Shumlin underling, which meant she would struggle to create a profile of her own.

Instead, here we are, with Scott at 39 percent, Minter at 38, and a rather surprising 14 percent undecided.

So why is this race so close? Assuming, again, that the poll is accurate.

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Big donors, big money in targeted House districts

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Two years ago, the Republican State Leadership Committee funneled $370,000 into Vermont, backing candidates in close races for the Vermont House. The VTGOP won several of those seats and took away the Democrats’ supermajority status.

So far this year, the RSLC has spent a lot less. But a handful of closer-to-home moneybags have taken matters into their own hands. They’ve donated more than $100,000 to individual Republican House candidates and House Minority Leader Don Turner’s political action committee.

In the small-dollar world of State House campaigns, that’s a huge amount of money.

First, a hat tip to Green Mountain Daily’s Sue Prent, who reported on the Franklin County iteration of this phenomenon a couple weeks ago. Turns out, it’s only part of a bigger pattern. But because the money is broadly dispersed, the pattern has attracted little attention.

Two of the donors are familiar names to anyone who follows Vermont politics. The other two might be new to you.

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Phil Scott said something dumb about technology yesterday

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Check that; to judge by his Twitter feed, he said a whole lot of dumb stuff about technology in Monday’s Innovation Week debate in Burlington. But this time, we’re focusing in on one particularly dumb and potentially dangerous item. This was in response to a question about how the state should select and integrate new software.

Scott said the state should opt for more off-the-shelf technology instead of buying custom-made programs. When his excavation firm needed a new bookkeeping program, he was told it would cost $10,000 to $15,000. Instead, the company chose a $200 QuickBooks program, he said.

Hey, yeah! Maybe we could replace the Tax Department with TurboTax! We could shut down Vermont Health Connect and refer everybody to WebMD! That’s the stuff!

Now, I’m not a technology expert, not by a longshot. But even I can see major flaws in Scott’s simplistic prescription. In no particular order:

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I think Phil Scott’s Twitter feed has popped a gasket

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Until now, @PhilScott4VT has been a repository of fatuous truisms and sketchy statistics. But today, something weird is going on. Either the Twitter feed has been outsourced to a rogue fortune-cookie factory, or it’s simply gone off the rails.

Don’t believe me? Then explain any of these gems.

Today’s Special: Mixed metaphor Pasta.

Here’s a policy we can all get behind. And push over the cliff.

Yeah, incentivize our hopes. That’s the stuff.

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Bernie Steps Up (and Pat Already Has)

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Time for a follow-up to my recent post about the lack of support for Sue Minter from Vermont’s Congressional delegation. First, the good news:

Yep, that’s Bernie Sanders deigning to appear at not one, but two rallies on behalf of Sue Minter and the Democratic ticket. I’ll step out on a short limb here and predict that we’ll see more such events before Election Day. Extra added bonus: the involvement of Rights & Democracy. It’s nice to see them make the smart political calculation that a moderately liberal Democrat is a better choice than a questionably center-right Republican.

This erases the only question surrounding Bernie’s endorsement of the Democratic ticket last week: would he step up, step out, and make a public effort on their behalf? The answer is a developing but hearty “Yes!”

And now, the senior Senator from Vermont, Pat Leahy. Last week, I wondered why he hadn’t been more public with his backing of Minter. Well, that post generated a response from the Leahy camp listing all the times and places that the good Senator had appeared with Minter or acted on her behalf.

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A fascinating endorsement

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Well, well. The Burlington Free Press has endorsed David Zuckerman for Lieutenant Governor.

Not that newspaper endorsements are worth the paper they’re largely no longer printed on, but this is the most fascinating one I’ve seen in a while. Zuckerman is arguably the most left-leaning candidate for statewide office we’ve had in a long time with a real shot at winning (sorry, Senator Pollina), and yet the usually conservative Free Press gave him its endorsement without a single mention of Republican Randy Brock.

That’s fascinating thing number one. Number two: when you read the editorial, it’s obvious that this is a bank shot setting up its inevitable endorsement of Phil Scott for Governor.

Number three: the Free Press attempted the rhetorical Triple Lutz of depicting David Zuckerman as a moderating force and a member of that most desirable of political categories, The Real Vermonter.

Sorry about that, Randy.

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The Sue Minter Negative Ad I’d Like To See

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I saw a Sue Minter TV ad the other night, and was unimpressed.

It was a negative spot aimed at Phil Scott — but it misses the mark. It tries to paint Scott as a proponent of higher taxes, which is (1) inaccurate and (2) highly unlikely to succeed. It also furthers the Republican talking point that taxes are political poison, which is counterproductive to sensible decision-making.

The sad thing is, there’s so much material for a better spot.

“What material?”, you may ask.

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The nastiest campaign in Vermont history?

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Scott Milne is running a truly bizarre campaign, entirely based on attacking incumbent Sen. Patrick Leahy. Milne’s entire “platform” consists of (1) Pat Leahy’s been in Washington too long, and (2) he’s been a successful fundraiser. Like Rudy Giuliani and “9/11,” Milne can’t open his mouth without the number “42”, as in Leahy’s tenure in the Senate, tumbling out. Milne has made no effort to outline policy differences or present his own ideas.

This may not be the nastiest campaign in state history; God knows the 19th Century featured tactics that might make Donald Trump blush. But it’s certainly the nastiest campaign in living memory.

And it’s getting worse, and louder, and nastier.

Start with Milne’s weekend rejection of Trump. He couldn’t get through three paragraphs without a gratuitous slam at Leahy. In fact, the Leahy slam was the lede in Milne’s statement.

Then came the news that Vice President Biden will campaign in Vermont. Milne couldn’t stop himself:

 “Sen. Leahy and Vice President Biden have spent the past 42 years together in Washington, and they both supported Hillary Clinton against Bernie, so it is not surprising that they would be campaigning together.”

A sensible candidate would have kept his mouth shut. Why call attention to a high-profile fundraiser benefiting your opponent? But Milne appears to suffer from a unique variant of Tourette’s, which compels him to whine about Pat Leahy with every breath he takes.

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