Monthly Archives: July 2024

Mother Nature’s Punching Bag

7 Replies

I can remember a time, not that long ago, when we believed the worst effect of climate change on Vermont would be a potential influx of climate refugees — people from coastal areas looking for safe havens in the hills and mountains of our state.

Yeah, about that.

We’re getting hit, very hard and very often, by the consequences of climate change in ways that outstrip all those places we used to look at with more than a touch of Green Mountain smugness. I’ve certainly wondered why people even live in the lowlands of Florida or Louisiana or Texas or why they hold onto beachfront property that’s being eroded away. Don’t they know better? Can’t they see the signs? And why should they expect the rest of us to underwrite their bad decisions?

Yeah, about that.

Rarely, if ever, have I seen a bunch of bad news on any subject to compare with what we’ve seen lately about how Vermont is in the crosshairs of climate change. It all adds up to one conclusion: Far from being immune, Vermont is in many ways uniquely vulnerable. We are at risk. And we’re repeatedly seeking help from others, who could understandably ask why they should bail us out when we insist on living in disaster-prone places like flood plains, riverside communities, or out in the countryside along dirt roads and unpaved driveways that can easily wash away. (Above image: Horn of the Moon Road in East Montpelier, washed out earlier this month.)

Continue reading →

One Neat Trick Phil Scott Could Use to Amplify His Influence

4 Replies

I’ve written ad nauseam about Gov. Phil Scott’s complete withdrawal from the Vermont Republican Party and how it’s inhibited his ability to govern. Absent his influence the VTGOP has drifted far to the right, it’s so bereft of resources it hasn’t had a single paid staffer in years, its recruitment efforts are laughably poor, and its candidates largely consist of unelectable Trumpers. The result: Substantial supermajorities in the House and Senate, and a flood tide of veto overrides.

But really, I can’t say I blame him. It would be a Herculean task to clean out the VTGOP, and both party leadership and the rank-and-file would not be receptive to his approach. It would be a hell of a lot of work, and would be very likely to fail.

However. There is something the governor could do. It wouldn’t involve dirtying his hands in party affairs. Hell, he could even farm out the real work to people in his inner circle. It’s so obvious that (1) I’m surprised it didn’t occur to me sooner and (2) I’d be afraid to suggest it except that there’s no way Team Scott would ever listen to me.

It’s this: Start a political action committee focused on electing centrists and fiscally conservative but socially moderate Republicans. Let’s call it, for the sake of argument, the Phil Scott Leadership PAC. Or if he’s feeling shy, the Common Sense Leadership PAC.

Continue reading →

Our Political Betters Are Strangling Vermont State University

5 Replies

A tremendous piece of reporting by VTDigger’s Theo Wells-Spackman lays out the dire situation facing Vermont State University and, although it sticks to the cautious, both-sides nature of modern journalism, it pretty much points the finger at the real culprits: Gov. Phil Scott and the Legislature.

It’s not a pretty picture. Falling admissions, leadership turmoil, cutbacks across the board, more cuts coming down the pike, half-empty (or worse) campuses, morale in the toilet. In short, something that looks just like a death spiral. And barring a sudden influx of resources from a state that has always shortchanged higher education, it’s hard to see how VSU pulls out of it. I’m sure it will survive in some form, but there’s no way it can become the robust, lower-cost, in-state alternative to the University of Vermont that we need it to be.

The situation would be bad enough, but the real killer is the state’s insistence that VSU maintain operations at all five of its campuses while implementing a painful series of state-mandated budget cuts.

Continue reading →

Who’s Spending: Another Look at Mass Media Filings

7 Replies

One week ago, I wrote about former senator John Rodgers’ five-figure spend for ads on WDEV radio plus other candidates’ investments in mass media. Several candidates have since reported mass media expenditures; here’s a look at the highlights.

Reminder: The next campaign finance reporting deadline is August 1, but candidates are required to promptly report mass media buys of $500 or more when they occur close to an election.

Let’s start with Rodgers. I noted that if his WDEV buy was part of a broader strategy it could pay off, but by itself it’s a questionable move. It’s a lot of money to spend on a diminished medium and an outlet that only reaches a fraction of Vermont. Well, so far it stands alone: Rodgers has not reported any more mass media spending.

The biggest mass media report from the past week comes not from a candidate, but from the Child Care Victory Fund, a political action committee affiliated with Let’s Grow Kids Vermont. The Fund is apparently trying to protect incumbent lawmakers who supported Act 76, the 2023 bill that made a “quantum leap” in child care investments, and now face primary opposition.

Continue reading →

Well, Now They’d All Better Know What They’re Doing

3 Replies

Going to abandon my usual policy of sticking to Vermont politics. Perhaps I can be permitted an exception for one of the most consequential events in our nation’s history — the decision of President Joe Biden to abandon his bid for re-election.

When Sen. Peter Welch came out in favor of Biden’s withdrawal on July 10, I wrote that he had better know what he’s doing. In the wake of Biden’s decision, that sentiment now applies to everyone in Democratic Party circles, up to and including the President himself. They’d damn well better know what they’re doing. And they’d damn well better not screw this up, which seems to be the default setting for the Democrats going all the way back (at least) to 1968, when I was a teenager staring down the barrel of the Vietnam War and the party tore itself apart. And still nearly won the election. (Probably should have, if not for Richard Nixon making back-door deals with South Vietnamese leadership. As reported in Garrett Graff’s Watergate.)

1968 was the last time a sitting Democratic President voluntarily relinquished the position. I’m not drawing comparisons beyond that, because the circumstances were wildly different. They were, in fact, much more fraught, much direr, than the current situation. And yes, the Democrats nearly won that election.

I am saying that the process of choosing Biden’s replacement has got to be cleaner than the trainwreck that happened after LBJ’s withdrawal, or the Dems risk handing control of the country to Donald Trump.

Continue reading →

Sooooo Many Campaign Finance Reports

4 Replies

Well, I didn’t really want to wade through all the campaign finance reports filed by House candidates on July 1. But there were questions I wanted to answer, so wade through them I did.

Actually, not all. I didn’t pay much attention to incumbents. I was mainly interested in new candidates. What follows is a daunting amount of detail, so let me give you some topline findings right away.

  • A lot of candidates, both new and incumbent, are having trouble complying with campaign finance law. Fortunately for them, the penalties for noncompliance are minimal to nonexistent.
  • There’s been a lot of talk about centrists running as Democrats with financial backing from rich folks and business leaders. What I found, to my mild surprise, is that there aren’t really that many of ’em. Hardly enough to qualify as a trend. But it is worth focusing attention on those trying to poach Democratic seats.
  • The Republican field of new House candidates is pretty much a financial wasteland. With a few exceptions. Emphasis on “few.”
  • One of the most successful funders of Republican House candidates is the Rutland GOPAC. But they operate on a modest scale, and aren’t likely to move the needle appreciably.

Okay, on to the details, whether you want them or not. But hey, this is a place for political sickos, so on we go.

Continue reading →

John Rodgers Has Money Now?, and Other Notes on Mass Media Filings

1 Reply

Well, well, well. Former Democratic state senator John Rodgers, now running for lieutenant governor as a Republican, seems to have searched for loose change in the sofa cushions and maybe the console of his (guessing here) pickup truck. Because after reporting no campaign activity whatsoever on July 1, he has now gone and spent a cool $10,400 on advertising with Radio Vermont, a.k.a. WDEV Radio.

We won’t know where the money came from until August 1, the next campaign finance deadline, but candidates are required to promptly report mass media expenditures of $500 or more when they occur close to an election. Rodgers filed his mass media report on July 11.

There are some other mass media filings of note, but let’s stick with Rodgers for the moment. I have to think — in a perverse way, I hope — he’s got some serious money behind him and that this big expenditure is part of a broader plan, because spending $10K on radio ads in central Vermont, by itself, is kind of a headscratcher. And I say that as a veteran radio guy whose brain still conjures up the radio version of the naked-in-public nightmare. (Which basically involves every possible interruption or technical problem sabotaging a live broadcast while I’m sitting at the microphone. Yep, radio in the blood.)

Continue reading →

Peter Welch Had Better Know What He’s Doing

10 Replies

I haven’t written about the Joe Biden debate aftermath because (1) this is a blog about Vermont politics and (2) I have no earthly idea what’s really going on, and neither do you.

But U.S. Sen. Peter Welch has now weighed in, taking to the opinion pages of the Washington Post to become the first Democratic senator to call for Biden to withdraw from the presidential campaign. So (1) the story is fair game for a #vtpoli blog and (2) I have thoughts.

First of which is, it’s absolutely uncharacteristic for Welch to be the first soldier over the parapet and into No Man’s Land. Welch is a cautious consensus-builder, best known in the House for being a loyal member of Nancy Pelosi’s team and for his diligent efforts to find common ground with rural Republicans. I don’t remember a single time when Welch was out in front of any issue, let alone the political hot potato of the season.

And that makes me think he has solid grounds for this decision. Welch is never, ever one to go off half cocked.

Continue reading →

The Resumé Builder Campaign

2 Replies

The single most disappointing campaign finance report from the July 1 deadline had to be Esther Charlestin’s. The Democratic candidate for governor reported a measly $12,235 in donations, a total that effectlvely sank whatever long-odds hope she had for beating Gov. Phil Scott.

The second most disappointing may have been Thomas Renner’s filing in his bid for lieutenant governor. Renner did better than Charlestin, but his total of $43,194 is not nearly enough to fuel a successful challenge against Progressive/Democratic Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, who entered the race with an $11,158 surplus and has since raised another $111,089.

That total doesn’t include one of the most charming line items in this round of campaign finance filings: Zuckerman gave an in-kind contribution of $420 to himself in “carrots for hand outs at parades.”

Aww, Farmer Dave strikes again.

Anyway, back to Renner.

Continue reading →

So the VTGOP’s Big Plan Is… Try to Take Jane Kitchel’s Senate Seat? Is That It?

3 Replies

Previously we looked at the dire financial straits of Esther Charlestin’s candidacy for governor, where she barely cleared $12,000 in a race that calls for, by Howard Dean’s reckoning, at least 164 times that much money. Now it’s time to look at the Republican side of the ledger, where pretty much everybody can rightly cry poverty.

With one notable exception.

That would be state Rep. Scott Beck, running for the Northeast Kingdom Senate seat currently occupied by retiring Democrat Jane Kitchel. Beck has raised a rather stunning $35,565. (His likely Democratic opponent, Amanda Cochrane, has raised a respectable $7,165 and enjoys Kitchel’s active support.) Beck appears to be the only Republican candidate who has raised more than enough money to run a respectable race. Besides, of course, Gov. Phil Scott, The Exception To Every Republican Rule,

More to the point, Beck and the governor are about the only two Republicans who aren’t complete embarrassments when it comes to fundraising. Which shows you just how desperate the party’s situation is.

The VTGOP ought to be in a position for a nice little comeback in the Legislature, threatening to end the Dem/Prog supermajorities that imperil every single one of Scott’s many, many, many vetoes. And they’re not.

Instead, the wistful eyes of the donor class have largely turned to putative Democrat Stewart Ledbetter’s bid to wrest away a Senate seat from liberal Democrat Martine Gulick or Progressive firebrand Tanya Vyhovsky. Ledbetter has amassed the largest campaign kitty of any Statehouse candidate thanks primarily to Burlington-area business leaders. You know, the very people who would historically be bankrolling Republicans.

Continue reading →