Category Archives: Vermont Republican Party

Phil’s Friends: “Jesus Believed In the Flood Model”

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Poor ol’ Phil Scott. After getting repeatedly overridden by the Legislature’s Democratic/Progressive supermajorities, he’s desperate to get more Republicans into the House and Senate.

Not desperate enough to try to build a political movement or exercise influence over the Vermont Republican Party, mind you. But desperate enough to endorse some, shall we say, decidedly fringey characters posing as “common sense” fiscal conservatives.

Take Michael Boutin of Barre, last seen in this space when, as a member of City Council, he cast the sole “No” vote on the sale of Main Street’s Wheelock Building to the owners of East Montpelier’s very successful and LGBTQ+-friendly Fox Market. Boutin had earlier led an unsuccessful petition drive aimed at blocking the sale. Which is truly strange, because Barre’s Main Street can use all the vibrant businesses it can get.

Back in 2021, Boutin maneuvered to block the proposed display of a Black Lives Matter flag in the city’s downtown by offering a charter amendment limiting acceptable flags to four: the Stars and Stripes, the state flag, the city’s flag, and the POW/MIA banner. Boutin shows definite signs of far-right intolerance, I think it’s fair to say.

Boutin is not an altogether bad guy; his Facebook page is full of civic boosterism and pet photos and the occasional foray into Trekdom. But there’s one big strange exception: a video excerpt from a Christian talk show featuring, as the clip’s title puts it, “Christian Professor Disproves the Theory of Evolution.”

Hoo boy. Rabbit hole alert.

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So You’re Saying There’s a Chance

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I’ve previously discussed the Republicans’ chances of ending the Dem/Prog supermajority in the House, which are essentially zero. Now it’s time for the Senate, where the Republicans do have an actual chance at ending the supermajority — but the odds are stacked against them.

Scene setting: During the current biennium, the D/P contingent totaled 23 while the R’s had only seven. Twenty votes constitute the narrowest of supermajorities, so the Dems have had a nice little margin for error.

The Republicans need to post a net gain of at least four seats in November to end the supermajority, but every seat they pick up makes it harder to override.

Quick assessment: If absolutely everything broke their way, the Republicans could pick up a maximum of five more seats — which would leave the D/P majority with 18, two short of a supermajority. But the chances of that are slim at best. The Republicans are more likely to win a seat or two, which would preserve the supermajority but make overrides harder to achieve. If you spin the scenario the other way, the Dems could hold serve and pick off one Republican seat.

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The Vermont Republicans Are Exactly Who We Thought They Were, Part Eleventy-Billion

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This is a cropped version of a photo from 2022, but it’s useful in remaking a point I’ve made before: Phil Scott notwithstanding, the Vermont Republican Party is a creature of the far right. Trumpers and conspiracy believers dominate the VTGOP from county committees to state committees to top party officials and, shocker I know, the party’s 2024 ticket. Pictured above: Party vice chair and practicing extremist Samantha Lefebvre, who won a single term in the Legislature by fooling the voters into thinking she was a “common sense Republican” (and lost her bid for re-election because she’d revealed her true colors), current party chair Paul Dame, former governor Jim Douglas and his familiar dead-eyed smile, and Samuel “Two-S” Douglass, currently making his second bid for state Senate. (He ran against Bobby Starr in 2022 and got 42% of the vote. He’s now running to succeed the retiring Starr against deep-pocketed Democratic Rep. Katherine Sims.)

Two-S is a fellow who thinks that Fox News isn’t conservative enough, the acquittal of multiple murderer Kyle Rittenhouse constituted “justice,” and our three biggest environmental challenges include “industrial wind turbines” but not climate change.

He’s also the chair of the Vermont Young Republicans. Yep, another fringe character who’s gained a top position in party circles. Great.

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“I Only Got the Albatross. Albatross!”

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Congratulations to the Vermont Republican Party for scrounging up 21 more candidates for state House! That’s right, in a post-primary meeting, the state committee filled a bunch of vacancies on its ticket and brought its total number of House hopefuls to a seemingly respectable 96. VTGOP Chair Paul Dame boasted of an “excitement and energy” not seen in the party since 2014. Funny thing, he skipped over the election of Phil Scott two years later.

Problem is, when you get up close and examine the merchandise, you realize that pretty much all they’ve got is dead albatross.

Dame speaks hopefully of the additional candidates increasing the party’s chances of killing the Dem/Prog House supermajority. Trouble is, I looked over the list of 21 late adds, and only three of ’em have a measurable chance of winning in November.

Albatross!

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One Neat Trick Phil Scott Could Use to Amplify His Influence

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I’ve written ad nauseam about Gov. Phil Scott’s complete withdrawal from the Vermont Republican Party and how it’s inhibited his ability to govern. Absent his influence the VTGOP has drifted far to the right, it’s so bereft of resources it hasn’t had a single paid staffer in years, its recruitment efforts are laughably poor, and its candidates largely consist of unelectable Trumpers. The result: Substantial supermajorities in the House and Senate, and a flood tide of veto overrides.

But really, I can’t say I blame him. It would be a Herculean task to clean out the VTGOP, and both party leadership and the rank-and-file would not be receptive to his approach. It would be a hell of a lot of work, and would be very likely to fail.

However. There is something the governor could do. It wouldn’t involve dirtying his hands in party affairs. Hell, he could even farm out the real work to people in his inner circle. It’s so obvious that (1) I’m surprised it didn’t occur to me sooner and (2) I’d be afraid to suggest it except that there’s no way Team Scott would ever listen to me.

It’s this: Start a political action committee focused on electing centrists and fiscally conservative but socially moderate Republicans. Let’s call it, for the sake of argument, the Phil Scott Leadership PAC. Or if he’s feeling shy, the Common Sense Leadership PAC.

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Sooooo Many Campaign Finance Reports

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Well, I didn’t really want to wade through all the campaign finance reports filed by House candidates on July 1. But there were questions I wanted to answer, so wade through them I did.

Actually, not all. I didn’t pay much attention to incumbents. I was mainly interested in new candidates. What follows is a daunting amount of detail, so let me give you some topline findings right away.

  • A lot of candidates, both new and incumbent, are having trouble complying with campaign finance law. Fortunately for them, the penalties for noncompliance are minimal to nonexistent.
  • There’s been a lot of talk about centrists running as Democrats with financial backing from rich folks and business leaders. What I found, to my mild surprise, is that there aren’t really that many of ’em. Hardly enough to qualify as a trend. But it is worth focusing attention on those trying to poach Democratic seats.
  • The Republican field of new House candidates is pretty much a financial wasteland. With a few exceptions. Emphasis on “few.”
  • One of the most successful funders of Republican House candidates is the Rutland GOPAC. But they operate on a modest scale, and aren’t likely to move the needle appreciably.

Okay, on to the details, whether you want them or not. But hey, this is a place for political sickos, so on we go.

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So the VTGOP’s Big Plan Is… Try to Take Jane Kitchel’s Senate Seat? Is That It?

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Previously we looked at the dire financial straits of Esther Charlestin’s candidacy for governor, where she barely cleared $12,000 in a race that calls for, by Howard Dean’s reckoning, at least 164 times that much money. Now it’s time to look at the Republican side of the ledger, where pretty much everybody can rightly cry poverty.

With one notable exception.

That would be state Rep. Scott Beck, running for the Northeast Kingdom Senate seat currently occupied by retiring Democrat Jane Kitchel. Beck has raised a rather stunning $35,565. (His likely Democratic opponent, Amanda Cochrane, has raised a respectable $7,165 and enjoys Kitchel’s active support.) Beck appears to be the only Republican candidate who has raised more than enough money to run a respectable race. Besides, of course, Gov. Phil Scott, The Exception To Every Republican Rule,

More to the point, Beck and the governor are about the only two Republicans who aren’t complete embarrassments when it comes to fundraising. Which shows you just how desperate the party’s situation is.

The VTGOP ought to be in a position for a nice little comeback in the Legislature, threatening to end the Dem/Prog supermajorities that imperil every single one of Scott’s many, many, many vetoes. And they’re not.

Instead, the wistful eyes of the donor class have largely turned to putative Democrat Stewart Ledbetter’s bid to wrest away a Senate seat from liberal Democrat Martine Gulick or Progressive firebrand Tanya Vyhovsky. Ledbetter has amassed the largest campaign kitty of any Statehouse candidate thanks primarily to Burlington-area business leaders. You know, the very people who would historically be bankrolling Republicans.

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It’s Not Quite George Aiken, But It’s Uncomfortably Close

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This election season is shaping up to be both boring as hell and one for the record books. Really, can you think of a comparable set of circumstances in Vermont or anywhere else? We have a Republican governor certain to win re-election. At the same time, no other Republican on the statewide ballot has a hope in Hades. And despite the governor’s efforts to whip up anti-tax frenzy against the Legislature, the Democrats stand a very good chance at retaining their supermajorities because, well, the VTGOP can barely tie its own shoes. At worst, the Dems will retain substantial enough majorities to frustrate the governor even if they can’t win veto overrides by the half-dozen anymore.

You see this becoming reality in the July 1 campaign finance reports, which feature an all-time dismal performance by the only Democratic candidate for governor. It’s not quite George Aiken level — the longtime Republican kingpin famously spent a mere $17.09 on his final Senate re-election bid — but it’s astonishingly bad.

Gubernatorial candidate Esther Charlestin reported total fundraising of $12,235 for her campaign.

For context, Charlestin is no better than the 12th most prolific fundraiser among Democratic candidates in 2024. She trails every fellow statewide Dem, many of whom are facing token opposition at best. She also lags behind five candidates for state Senate: Dems Stewart Ledbetter, Katherine Sims, Kesha Ram Hinsdale and Martine Gulick, and Republican Scott Beck.

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For VTGOP Chair, Abstention Was the Better Part of Valor

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The Vermont Republican Party executive committee tried to keep the lowest possible profile in deciding to waive its rule against nominating convicted felons*. Understandable; even the most diehard Trumpers possess some capacity for embarrassment. Their meeting last Wednesday was a closed-door affair. If it was recorded, which I doubt, the audio or video have not been made public. The party did not disclose the vote total; its press release said only that the Trump exemption passed by “a narrow margin.” And don’t expect any details from the written record of the proceedings, which party chair Paul Dame characterized as “some kind of minutes” that “don’t capture the nature of the discussion necessarily.”

*As I predicted it would. Went way out on a limb there.

Yeah, well, sure.

But as it happens, I have received a breakdown of the vote from a highly reliable source (who is not a member of the committee, and that’s all I’ll say about them). And wouldn’t you know it, Dame could have blocked the exemption — but he chose not to cast a vote at all.

Brave man.

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Well, This Is Embarrassing.

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The above is a screenshot from the Vermont Republican Party’s Rules.

Oopsie.

Unfortunate to have put that down on paper and formally adopted it, when the VTGOP is on the verge of nominating a presidential candidate recently found guilty of 34 felonies.

This might trigger an emergency state committee meeting to rewrite the rules or erase this particular one, but the party does have a couple work-arounds available, both of which would involve the sort of embarrassment that parties customarily do their level best to avoid. Of course, the Republican Party of the Trump era is a completely different beast, apparently immune (through repeated exposure) to political embarrassment.

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