Category Archives: 2024 election

Beware of Redpilled Zealots in Democratic Clothing

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I have to admit, I missed it at first glace. I was scanning the Secretary of State’s list of candidates for the Legislature, and my eyes just glossed right over a familiar name. To be fair, I was focused on Republican candidates and this guy has qualified for the August Democratic primary in the Windham-1 district.

Fair warning: He is not a Democrat. Not anywhere close.

This is Jason Herron, previously noted in this space as a stealth conservative — at the time, he was a candidate for Guilford Selectboard touting himself as a humble maple farmer who merely wanted more transparency in local government.

In reality, he is (as you see in the screenshot above) the Vermont state director for Convention of States Action, a far-right fantasy camp that wants to selectively rewrite the U.S. Constitution. The object of its desire: a Constitutional convention “restricted to proposing amendments that will impose fiscal restraints on the federal government, limit its power and jurisdiction, and impose term limits on its officials and members of Congress.”

Yeah, none of that pesky reproductive rights stuff or clarifying the Second Amendment or eliminating the Electoral College or clarifying the separation of church and state. Only approved topics will be allowed in this arena of free speech.

In an appearance on a COSA YouTube video, Herron said a Constitutional convention held on COSA terms is “the only way we’re going to save our country without shedding blood.”

Good to know he’s keeping a level head about all this.

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Well, This Is Embarrassing.

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The above is a screenshot from the Vermont Republican Party’s Rules.

Oopsie.

Unfortunate to have put that down on paper and formally adopted it, when the VTGOP is on the verge of nominating a presidential candidate recently found guilty of 34 felonies.

This might trigger an emergency state committee meeting to rewrite the rules or erase this particular one, but the party does have a couple work-arounds available, both of which would involve the sort of embarrassment that parties customarily do their level best to avoid. Of course, the Republican Party of the Trump era is a completely different beast, apparently immune (through repeated exposure) to political embarrassment.

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Whatever Happened to the Great Phil Scott Recruitment Drive of 2024?

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When the leader of your party describes your candidate recruitment effort as “disappointing,” it’s a sign that things have gone off the rails. So said VTGOP Chair Paul Dame to Seven Days’ Kevin McCallum, and then added “It’s one of the smallest recruitment classes that we’ve had in the last 10 years.”

Can confirm. I spent a few hours poring over the Secretary of State’s list of candidates who have filed for major party primaries. There may be a few late adds; the deadline was last Thursday, and as of Monday morning the Elections Office was still checking petitions. But what we’ve got so far, by my count, is a total of 69 Republican candidates for House. Which sounds a little bit respectable considering they’ve only got 37 seats right now.

Except for this: At least 30 of those candidates have no shot at winning. There are a few Republican primaries where someone’s gotta lose, a few repeat candidates who have been uncompetitive in the past, and a lot of Republican candidates in deep-blue districts. In other words, the VTGOP has no better than the longest of longshot chances at eliminating the Democratic/Progressive supermajority in the House. They’d have to run the table in competitive districts and hold all their current seats.

On the Senate side the Republicans have 25 candidates, but I count 14 who are not competitive. The R’s do have a shot at ending the Senate supermajority thanks to some key Democratic departures, but that’s all it is: a shot.

So what happened to Gov. Phil Scott’s “pledge” (McCallum’s word) to recruit moderate Republican candidates? Either it was a failure, or it never happened at all.

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DIspatches from an Alternate Earth

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Been having long, weird dreams lately. Last night, I had written a big, expansive rock opera that involved a multitude of performers and was getting its premiere performance. The night before, President Lincoln and Congress were enacting a series of reform bills aimed at improving the war effort. Now I seem to be dreaming of a world where Vermont Republicans are reacting to the Donald Trump verdict with surprising adherence to principle…

Montpelier, Vt. — Following the unanimous conviction of Donald Trump on 34 felony charges, leaders of the Vermont Republican Party are distancing themselves from their party’s putative nominee.

Gov. Phil Scott, who has long refused to support Trump, went a step further today. “The verdict ought to disqualify Donald Trump as our party’s nominee,” he said in a statement released by his office. “If the Republican Convention persists in nominating him, I will have to consider leaving the party and running for re-election as an independent. I cannot see myself sharing a ticket with that man.”

Other party figures didn’t go quite so far, but were unsparing in their reactions to the verdict.

Paul Dame, VTGOP chair, noted that “On our website, we proudly say the VTGOP ’embraces the principles of the United States and Vermont Constitutions. Our platform is built on the foundations of those documents.’ To be true to our core beliefs, we must abide by the legitimate processes of the legal system. Unfortunately, our convention delegates are pledged to Trump, but I would urge them to limit their support to the bare minimum and make no public statements on behalf of the Trump campaign. This is a dark day for the Grand Old Party.”

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Darkness on the Edge of the Capitol Complex

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A good piece of political journalism will accomplish two things: It will explain what’s been happening and give you a peek at what’s ahead. VTDigger’s Sarah Mearhoff accomplished both in her recent look back at the 2024 legislative session, specifically the bitter divide between Gov. Phil Scott and the Dem/Prog supermajorities. It’s obvious that the rarely healthy relationship took a measurable turn for the worse in 2024.

The best bit — the Rosetta Stone that explains it all — goes back to the very end of the 2023 session, when the Legislature overrode six Scott vetoes. That’s a huge number. Overrides have been extremely rare throughout Vermont history. I haven’t done a deep dive, but I’ll bet that six is the all-time record for a single year. Scott comms director Rebecca Kelley called the veto session “eye-opening,” and Senate President Pro Tem Phil Baruth believes that was when the governor changed course:

“I think at that point, they had their own existential moment where they said, ‘We have to get super aggressive and go after these people,’” Baruth said.

Longtime Statehouse lobbyist Rebecca Ramos noted the “breakdown in communication” this year and added there was “just not a lot of interest in repairing it.”

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The Most Compelling Race Is For the Least Compelling Prize

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With all due respect to John Nance Garner, seen above conducting one of the essential duties of the Vice Presidency, the #2 spot in an executive branch is the appendix of the American political system. Garner called accepting the VP nomination “the worst damn fool mistake I ever made.” Harry Truman said the vice president “is about as useful as a cow’s fifth teat.” Our first VP, John Adams, called it “the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived.”

And yet, here in Vermont, we’re seeing a relative land rush for our equivalent of the vice presidency. There will be, mirabile dictu, contested primaries for lieutenant governor on the Democratic and Republican ballots in August. Despite the hollowness of the actual office, the two primaries and the general election to follow offer a rare hint of intrigue in what promises to be a suspense-free campaign season as far as the statewide ballot is concerned.

I’ve covered the Democratic contest previously. But now we have two announced candidates on the Republican side, an embarrassment of riches for a party that has given multiple nominations to H. Brooke Paige in recent years. Rutland accountant, January 6 field trip organizer, and multiple-time loser Gregory Thayer has been in the race for months, not that anyone has noticed. He has now been joined by former Democratic state senator John Rodgers, last seen biffing his re-election bid to the Senate by failing to get his nominating petitions in on time.

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What Will the State Senate Be In 2025?

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Time for some way-too-early speculation about what kind of state Senate we will have in the new biennium. To date, Sens. Jane Kitchel, Bobby Starr, Dick McCormack and Brian Campion have announced they are not seeking re-election. Sen. Dick Mazza resigned last month for health reasons, which brings us to five senior solons — in terms of lifespan and/or tenure — who won’t be there next January.

Disclaimer: The following post is based entirely on my own observations. There is not a lick of insider information at play. I do NOT have sources in Senate leadership.

By my math, the five retirees have lived a combined 372 years (average “only” 74.4 years, thanks to that 53-year-old whipper-snapper Campion, PULL UP YER PANTS young man) and legislative service totaling 158 years. That’s right, one hundred and fifty-eight, more than 31 years apiece under the Golden Dome. Also, three of the five are committee chairs.

This round of departures follows the seismic 2022 election season, when 10 senators — fully one-third of the chamber — did not return. That means fully half of the 2025 Senate will have, at most, two years of experience. In 2020, four senators stepped away (three by choice; John Rodgers came a cropper thanks to his own inattentiveness to the niceties of candidate filing law), which means that 19 members of the new Senate will have no more than four years of experience.

This, in a body that values age and seniority above all else, and normally consigns junior members to purely decorative status. It’s gonna be interesting.

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When She Was Good, She Was Very, Very Good…

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Amongst all the encomiums that accompanied Sen. Jane Kitchel’s retirement announcement (“most influential legislator,” “tireless work ethic,” “encyclopedic” knowledge of state government and, of course, “legendary“), this comment from Senate President Pro Tem Phil Baruth stuck out at me:

“I have adopted a two-word mantra as President Pro Tem, and it has served me well: ‘Ask Jane.’”

To which my first thought was, “Well, there’s your problem.”

It’s not that Kitchel doesn’t deserve praise on her way out the door. She has served the state for a long time with notable distinction. It will, indeed, be difficult to replace her. The Senate is in for an adjustment period.

But adjust it will. No one is irreplaceable. No one is truly encyclopedic in their knowledge of anything. And Kitchel’s biggest problem was that she thought she knew even more than she did, and she acted accordingly.

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So What Did Howard Dean Mean by “Scorched Earth”? (Updated With MORE Phil Scott Fails)

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On Monday, former governor Howard Dean ended his brief dalliance with running against Gov. Phil Scott by explaining that his only path to victory was “a scorched earth, negative attack campaign” out of character with Vermont politics, and that he refused to be the one to inject our system with that kind of vitriol.

Okay, well, at the time it seemed like a hollow, self-serving rationale — more acceptable to a politician’s ego than “The polls showed me way behind” or “I found out I couldn’t raise enough money” or maybe even “Turns out half of Vermont doesn’t even remember me.” But the more I thought about it, the more I wondered:

What would a scorched earth campaign against Phil Scott look like?

Secondary question:

Would it work?

I can think of two potential scenarios; one really doesn’t meet the definition and the other would be doomed to fail. So I’m still wondering if Dean had some brilliantly Machiavellian concept that could bring down Governor Teflon or if he was just bullshitting his way off the stage. I suspect the latter.

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Dean Leaves Dems at the Altar (UPDATED With Another Skedaddle)

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The curtain came down on Howard Dean’s Hamlet act this morning. After a few weeks of something approaching suspense, Dean announced he would not run for governor.

And now here we are, 10 days away from the filing deadline for major party candidates and the only Democrat in the race is Esther Charlestin, who is (1) almost entirely unknown, (2) has never run for public office*, and (3) has shown no signs at all of mounting a serious campaign. Not even an underfunded, scrappy effort like those of the last three Democratic candidates for governor.

*Correction: Charlestin has run for, and won a seat on, the Middlebury selectboard.

Former Burlington mayor Miro Weinberger is still pondering*, but really. If Dean’s internal polling showed him ten points behind incumbent Gov. Phil Scott, what could possibly convince Weinberger to step in? Or anyone else, for that matter?

*Whoops, that didn’t age well. Channel 22/44 anchor Lauren Maloney took to Twitter early this afternoon with news that Weinberger does “not intend to be a candidate for public office this fall.”

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