Category Archives: 2024 election

Going Down All the Rabbit Holes With a Republican Candidate for State Senate

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Joe Gervais has returned to the political stage. The extremely unsuccessful 2022 Republican candidate for a House seat in and around Manchester is now running for state Senate in Bennington County. Two years ago in this space, I covered the extreme views ineptly concealed behind a façade of common sense conservatism, such as election denialism, Covid conspiratorialism, and belief in the thoroughly debunked canard that vaccines cause autism.

But that was a mere appetizer for the main course we have on today’s menu. Gervais is once again running as a fiscally conservative Republican of the kind that would make Phil Scott proud… but he made the cardinal mistake of revealing his true self in a blog on Substack called “Vermont Musings.”

And boy, are his views ever extreme. Among the most extreme I’ve seen in Vermont politics, and that includes the likes of Art Peterson, Gregory Thayer, and John Klar.

Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

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That’s a Whole Lotta Bull, Ma’am

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You could almost feel sorry for Andrea Murray.

She’s a far-right Republican candidate for state Senate in solid blue Windsor County — a district that hasn’t elected a single Republican to any of its three seats since 1994.

Nineteen ninety-four. That’s 30 years ago. Fifteen elections ago. Forty-five Democratic winners ago. In recent years, Republicans have consistently lost by roughly two-to-one margins.

Murray is, naturally, presenting herself as a common-sense Republican who merely wants to bring “balance” to Montpelier. In fact, on her campaign website she offers three rationales for her candidacy, and the first is that she “will work across the aisle.” She’s also got prominent Republicans running interference for her. As noted previously, LG candidate John Rodgers has endorsed her as “a moderate woman.” She also claims the backing of former governor Jim Douglas, the cheapest date in #vtpoli.

Let me tell you about this “moderate.” Less than a year ago she was trying to get rid of longtime Windsor County Republican chair John MacGovern, whose sole offense was that he didn’t like Donald Trump. If Murray can’t get along with MacGovern, I’d like to see her definition of “work across the aisle.”

So why do I almost feel sorry for her? Well, she’s dumped a bunch of her own money into the campaign and spent much of it on an out-of-state consultancy that’s doing her absolutely no favors. And like I said, she’s going to walk into a buzzsaw on Election Night.

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We Regret to Inform You that John Rodgers Has Drunk the Kool-Aid

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The Republicans’ candidate for lieutenant governor, John Rodgers, is seen as a potential winner for the victory-starved VTGOP: a centrist politician who served in the Legislature as a Democrat and might pull moderate voters away from incumbent Progressive/Democrat David Zuckerman.

Well, maybe we should pump the brakes on that one. Because to judge by the above graphic, Rodgers has taken a Wile E. Coyote-style dive into the deep end of conservative Republicanism.

Two things of note. First, he’s endorsing Andrea Murray, a far-right candidate for state Senate in deep-blue Windsor County. He promotes Murray as “a moderate woman,” which is a goddamn lie. Murray and her husband August were described by the Valley News’ Jim Kenyon as the “ringleaders” of the move to get rid of John MacGovern as chair of the Windsor County Republicans. MacGovern is a very conservative fellow and a very active Republican, but he is not a fan of Donald Trump. That was too much for the Murrays and their ilk; they undertook a long, noisy, divisive, and ultimately successful effort to oust MacGovern. They were so het-up over MacG’s apostasy that they actually filed a lawsuit against him and the Vermont Republican Party. A suit that was basically laughed out of court, but whatever happened to Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment?

There is more, much more, to say about Ms. Murray, but that will have to wait for an upcoming post. For now, let’s move on to point two about Mr. Rodgers.

Which is, look at the company he’s keeping.

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Phil’s Friends: A Homegrown Mom for Liberty

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As noted previously, Gov. Phil Scott and former gov Jim Douglas were scheduled to hold a meet ‘n greet this evening for Republican legislative candidates in Addison County. They’ll be lending their names and “moderate” reputations to a passel of far-right hopefuls with, um, no hope of winning in a deep blue county.

Take Renee McGuinness, pictured above. Please, take her.

McGuinness is one of two Republican candidates in the very Democratic Addison-4 district, currently repped by Mari Cordes and Caleb Elder. It last elected a Republican in 2016, and the two incumbents cruised to re-election in 2022 by a wide margin. (Elder made an unsuccessful bid for state senate this year; Herb Olson joins Cordes on this year’s Democratic ticket.)

McGuinness is known in Statehouse circles as an advocate for the Vermont Family Alliance, a very conservative organization aligned, in worldview at least, with the notorious Moms for Liberty, which seems to be plummeting earthward after a brief ascent to political influence in Ron DeSantis’ Florida. MFL has been identified as “extremist” by the Southern Poverty Law Center. Doubtless VFA is too small to have attracted SPLC’s notice.

VFA touts itself as a parental rights group, fighting against government intrusion into parents’ “natural right to make decisions” about their children’s upbringing. Which sounds kind of benign on the surface, but their idea of government intrusion is pretty darn broad.

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Phil’s Friends: “Authority Deficit Disorder”

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Pavement Pounding Alert!!! Gov. Phil Scott is making an appearance next week in Addison County, one of the bluest provinces in our B.L.S., on behalf of a bunch of Republican candidates for the House and Senate who, frankly, don’t have a prayer of prevailing in November. But hey, at least he’s making an effort.

The event will kick off at 5:00 p.m. on Thursday the 26th at the Middlebury Legion. It also features former governor Jim Douglas, and maybe that explains the Addison thing. Douglas lives in Middlebury. Posted run time for the shindig is three hours, which is a hell of a long time to listen to Republicans, but if it speaks to you, by all means have fun.

But I want to focus my attention on one of the seven legislative candidates scheduled to appear: Rob North (pictured above), unsuccessful candidate for House in 2022 who’s giving it another go this year. He faces two well-entrenched Democratic incumbents in Addison-3, Reps. Diane Lanpher and Matt Birong. In 2022 North drew 21.9% of the vote in a four-way race, while Lanpher and Birong each tallied around 31%. Kind of a blowout, no?

North is trying to follow his 2022 playbook of posing as a common sense fiscal conservative when, in fact, he is an Evangelical Christian at the far right end of that little spectrum. And I’ve got receipts, boy do I ever.

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Phil’s Friends: “Jesus Believed In the Flood Model”

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Poor ol’ Phil Scott. After getting repeatedly overridden by the Legislature’s Democratic/Progressive supermajorities, he’s desperate to get more Republicans into the House and Senate.

Not desperate enough to try to build a political movement or exercise influence over the Vermont Republican Party, mind you. But desperate enough to endorse some, shall we say, decidedly fringey characters posing as “common sense” fiscal conservatives.

Take Michael Boutin of Barre, last seen in this space when, as a member of City Council, he cast the sole “No” vote on the sale of Main Street’s Wheelock Building to the owners of East Montpelier’s very successful and LGBTQ+-friendly Fox Market. Boutin had earlier led an unsuccessful petition drive aimed at blocking the sale. Which is truly strange, because Barre’s Main Street can use all the vibrant businesses it can get.

Back in 2021, Boutin maneuvered to block the proposed display of a Black Lives Matter flag in the city’s downtown by offering a charter amendment limiting acceptable flags to four: the Stars and Stripes, the state flag, the city’s flag, and the POW/MIA banner. Boutin shows definite signs of far-right intolerance, I think it’s fair to say.

Boutin is not an altogether bad guy; his Facebook page is full of civic boosterism and pet photos and the occasional foray into Trekdom. But there’s one big strange exception: a video excerpt from a Christian talk show featuring, as the clip’s title puts it, “Christian Professor Disproves the Theory of Evolution.”

Hoo boy. Rabbit hole alert.

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Tunbridge Ain’t What It Used to Be, Apparently

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So the Tunbridge Fair — err, the Tunbridge World’s Fair — happened last week. And as is its tradition, WDEV Radio broadcast live from the Fair’s gazebo and conducted debates for the top statewide offices. It’s been an early and quasi-obligatory stop on the campaign trail for many a year.

Well, WDEV was there, but many top politicians were no-shows. Gov. Phil Scott, for instance. Also U.S. Rep. Becca Balint and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders. The only actual debate featured the two candidates for lieutenant governor, incumbent Progressive/Democrat David Zuckerman and Republican John Rodgers. (It was reportedly a spirited affair; you can listen here. The LG debate is in the second hour of the show.)

Otherwise, empty chairs abounded. Instead of debates, we got long interviews with the candidates who bothered to attend.

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Here’s Another Political Thing Phil Scott Should Do, But Won’t

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The fine fellow above, pictured with a fish he caught last year on Shadow Lake, is former state senator John Rodgers, Republican candidate for lieutenant governor. I know about the fish because it’s featured in one of a series of low-budget official campaign videos in which Rodgers is interviewed by one Rick Lafayette, a.k.a. the lead singer of Kikker, a Vermont metal cover band. Yeah, this guy:

Hey, I didn’t even wait to start digressing this time, I did it right off the top.

Anyway, Rodgers is running against Progressive/Democratic incumbent David Zuckerman. As most of you know, in Vermont we elect the governor and LG separately. And throughout Phil Scott’s seven-plus years in the corner office, a Republican has never been lieutenant governor. This doesn’t matter at all because the LG has no actual, uh, power or authority — except for one big thing, which ought to keep Scott and his allies awake at night.

The LG is in the line of succession. If something were to happen to the govrnor, then good ol’ Progressive Farmer Dave would succeed him. You’d think, then, that Scott would be going all-out to make sure Zuckerman is out of the way. You know, secure the Phil Scott political legacy.

Is he? Not that anyone can tell.

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The Harris Phenomenon

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Pardon my departure from the usual provinces of Vermont politics, but there’s something that must be said and I haven’t heard it anywhere else.

Kamala Harris is on one hell of a run.

I can’t think of a political figure in my lifetime who’s accomplished anything close to what she’s done in the brief period of time since President Biden ended his bid for a second term. I really don’t think I’m exaggerating about this. Compared to the normal, glacial pace of presidential campaigns, the Harris effort is an eyeblink.

Most recently, there was the debate. I believe MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell called it the strongest performance in presidential debate history, full stop. If it wasn’t, it was damn close. Harris got her talking points across, she subtly needled Donald Trump into unhinged rants (transgender surgery on immigrants in prison?????), and she handled his obnoxious behavior with good humor. It was like Bugs Bunny facing Yosemite Sam. She made it look effortless. Or like a woman who’s spent her career having to deal with powerful men.

It’s just the latest chapter in a campaign that formally began only a month and a half ago when Biden dropped out on July 21. This won’t mean much to anyone besides me, but I tested positive for Covid in early August and was sick for a month. My illness lasted almost as long as the entire Harris campaign to date. That’s simply remarkable.

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The Business Elites Expand Their Portfolio, and Other Notes from the 9/1 Campaign Finance Filings

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Well, those Burlington-area business types have slightly expanded their playing field as they try to weaken the Legislature’s ability to override gubernatorial vetoes. They’d backed a handful of centrist Democratic challengers to Dem/Prog incumbents (most notably Stewart Ledbetter and Elizabeth Brown*, only to see them all go down to defeat. (A similar effort was made by Brattleboro businessfolk in support of an unsuccessful challenge to Rep. Emilie Kornheiser.) They also backed some Republican hopefuls with a chance to knock off Democratic incumbents in November including LG candidate John Rodgers, two state reps running for Senate, Pat Brennan and Scott Beck, and the uncle-and-nephew tag team of Leland and Rep. Michael Morgan, running in a two-seat House district currently split between the two parties.

*We’d previously noted that Brown spent an appalling $35 per vote. It was actually $35.42, for those keeping score at home.

And now that same bunch of Vermont-scale plutocrats is throwing their weight, in the form of four-figure donations, behind Rep. Chris Mattos, running for Senate in the Chittenden North district currently repped by Sen. Irene Wrenner, and Steven Heffernan, Republican Senate candidate in Addison County. (A district that, according to Matthew Vigneau, solid Twitter follow and bigger election nerd than I, hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since the year 2000. Which was the year of the great civil-unions backlash that saw Republicans win in multiple unexpected locations, so grain of salt required.)

I haven’t come across any similarly blessed Republican candidates for House, but I didn’t do an exhaustive search. Then again, perhaps these low-grade plutocrats have decided (as have I) that the House is a lost cause for the Republicans.

So who’s giving how much to whom?

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