Category Archives: 2014 election

Profiles in Courage, Lieutenant Governor Edition

Fresh in from the Twitterverse:

Hmm.

To make this even worse, the debate is in Barre. Not like he had a long way to go. In the words of fellow Tweeter Shay Totten, “I always thought Phil was a fast driver.”

I guess he can drive slow when given the proper motivation. LIke a capable challenger waiting to engage him on the issues.

Wow! Scott Milne puts an ad on TV!

He must have thoroughly scoured the sofa cushions, because he’s finally taken to the airwaves with a paid 30-second ad. Either that, or he spent some time on Ancestry.com searching for more Milnes and Boieses to fund his (very) late-blooming media effort. This is his first ad buy since the August primary, when he put out a single ad to help him fend off the “challenge” of Emily Peyton and Dan Feliciano.

Anyway, he managed to pay whatever it cost to produce the thing, plus $78,825 on ad time. And shockingly, he didn’t spend most of his money on WCAX:

Screen Shot 2014-10-21 at 5.44.30 PM

As for the ad itself, well, it’s exactly what you’d expect. It’s a rehash of Milne’s attacks on Governor Shumlin delivered in a downcast voice by a female narrator — how many days he’s been out of state, slow economy, high taxes, Vermont Health Connect — with creepy music in the background.

Then, as it always does, the music shifts to a happy, mellow tune and the camera focuses on Our Hero, Scott Milne, standing outside somewhere on a sunny day, promising to cap property taxes, enact new incentives for education, and end “Peter Shumlin’s failed health care experiment.”

And then, just before the video cuts away, this strange lopsided smirk spreads across his face:

Screen Shot 2014-10-21 at 5.40.05 PM

Eeeesh. Looks like a bad used car salesman.

Shoulda tightened up the edit just a bit, boys.

The ad ends with a slo-mo video of Milne in profile with the suddenly-upbeat female narrator saying, “Scott Milne for Governor. Focused on solutions… full-time.”

Just a touch of snide in her voice on the “full-time.”

So yeah, typical stuff. Probably came out of some Generic Political Ad Generator from some Generic Political Production Company.

Nothing wrong with it. It’s just utterly predictable.

Well, except for the smirk.

The purely cosmetic bipartisanship of Vision To Action Vermont

State Reps. Heidi Scheuermann and Paul Ralston. Photo filched w/o permission from VTDigger. I hope they don't mind.

State Reps. Heidi Scheuermann and Paul Ralston. Photo filched w/o permission from VTDigger. I hope they don’t mind.

State Reps. Heidi Scheuermann (R) and Paul Ralston (D), the busy bees behind Vision To Action Vermont, have been busy indeed these days. They’re releasing endorsements almost every day. And, on the surface, it looks to be a fair mix of Republicans and Democrats.

This figures, since V2AVT portrays itself as a nonpartisan, centrist, practical, “rise above party labels and get stuff done” kind of political action committee. If you listen closely, however, you can hear the business-friendly dog whistles a-blowin’. From its launch announcement:

[V2AVT is] a non-partisan organization that will promote, support and elect strong candidates for political office in Vermont who advocate for fiscal responsibility in state spending, and are committed to forming balanced, common-sense public policies that encourage economic prosperity, greater opportunities for Vermont families and businesses, and individual liberties and responsibility.

That’s the entire Dog Whistle Philharmonic in a single sentence: fiscal responsibility, balanced, common-sense, economic prosperity, opportunities, individual liberties and responsibility.

And, despite a thin veneer of bipartisanship, the dog whistles continue to sound throughout V2AVT’s list of endorsements.

As of this writing, V2AVT has endorsed 22 candidates: 11 in the House, 10 in the Senate, plus Lt. Gov. Phil Scott. Overall, they’ve endorsed 13 Republicans, eight Dems, and one Independent.

Okay, leaning rightward, but a respectable number of Democrats, right?

Not so much. There’s a strong trend in V2AVT’s endorsements. The higher the stakes, the more Republicans you get. While the House endorsements are split evenly, 5-5-1, the Senate endorsements include seven Republicans and only three Democrats. And then there’s Phil Scott, the group’s only statewide endorsement.

But beyond the mere numbers, there’s this: most of V2AVT’s Republican candidates are in highly competitive races, while their Democratic candidates are either unopposed or in very safe Democratic territory. 

This is especially true in the Senate, where V2AVT has endorsed all the Republicans’ top challengers except Robert Frenier, who’s challenging incumbent Dem Mark MacDonald in Orange County.

Otherwise, it’s like V2AVT and the VTGOP are using the same playbook. Dustin Degree and Norm McAllister in Franklin County, all three Republicans in Rutland County, Pat McDonald in Washington County. Degree, McDonald, and Rutland’s Brian Collamore are the VTGOP’s top three hopes for Senate gains, but they face uphill battles against formidable candidates: ex-Senator Sara Kittell in Franklin, incumbent P/D Anthony Pollina and incumbent D Ann Cummings in Washington (nobody’s beating Bill Doyle), and Rutland’s WIlliam Tracy Carris, son of longtime Senator Bill Carris.

And who are the Democrats supported by V2AVT? The very safe Jane Kitchel and Dick Sears, plus Sears’ Bennington County running mate Brian Campion. There is only one token Republican candidate on the Benn ballot, and Campion is considered a shoo-in.

Oh, and V2AVT also endorsed safe Republican incumbent Joe Benning.

Now let’s look at the House endorsements.

In Chittenden County, V2AVT is backing incumbent Republican Kurt Wright and Repub newcomer Michael Ly in a two-seat district. Wright is safe; the Repubs have hopes for Ly. And in another two-seat district, Chittenden 9-1, V2AVT is supporting the very safe (and centrist) incumbent Democrat Jim Condon and Republican candidate Joey Purvis, who’s hoping to replace retiring Republican Bob Bouchard.

Chittenden 9-1 is a closely contested district. Condon was the top vote-getter by a mile in 2012; Bouchard barely beat Democrat Curt Taylor; Purvis finished a respectable fourth. This is a seat that the Democrats could take.

Up in the perennial battleground of Franklin County, V2AVT is endorsing 26-year incumbent Dem Kathie Keenan and Republican challenger Corey Parent in a two-seat district. Parent is hoping to snag the seat currently held by Dem Mike McCarthy, who won by a mere 20 votes in 2012.

V2AVT’s favorite Independent is Laura Sibilia, a business-friendly type who’s challenging established Democrat John Moran in Windham-Bennington 1. There’s no Republican on the ballot, but Sibilia’s platform is clearly Republican-leaning.

The group has also endorsed safe Republican incumbent Patti Komline.

As for its Democratic endorsements, Jim Condon and Kathie Keenan are well-established incumbents; Clem Bissonnette is running unopposed has no Republican opponent — his challenge is from the Progressive Party; Cynthia Browning is a famously independent-minded Democrat in a safe Democratic district; and Matt Trieber is unopposed in Windham-3.

Overall, of V2AVT’s eight Democratic endorsements, none are in races closely contested by Republicans. Of its 13 Republican endorsements, seven are in races where the VTGOP hopes to gain ground.

That’s not my idea of nonpartisanship. That’s my idea of advancing the Republican cause.

Is it just me, or does Scott Milne owe a lot of money?

Kudos to Scott Milne, who voluntarily released two years’ worth of tax returns and other personal financial information. That’s more than Governor Shumlin released, and it’s the level of disclosure required of members of Congress.

His financials did raise a niggling question in my mind, though.

Milne lists several assets, the largest of which are the $2,000,000 value of Milne Travel and $1,699,750 representing a 50% share in B&M Realty, the firm he co-owns with David Boies III.

Then there are the liabilities: $1.642 million. The largest is a $950,000 “promissory note,” otherwise not described. Who holds the note? What’s it for? What are the terms of repayment?

There are also three mortgages totaling $1.38 million; Milne is responsible for half of those, or $680,000. Since he “owns” 50% of those mortgages, and he owns 50% of B&M Realty, I’m going out on a limb and guessing that the mortgages arise from B&M investments.

Let us pray.

Let us pray.

It boils down to a healthy net worth of $2.641 million, but still. We’re talking about a guy whose primary income is his $118,000 salary from Milne Travel. Now, I don’t play in these financial leagues, but it seems to me that Milne is carrying a lot of debt.

And his positive net worth depends almost entirely on the valuation of his two corporate interests — Milne Travel and B&M Realty. Is the family business really worth $2,000,000? Is B&M really worth $3.4 million? I don’t know, but I’d have to guess that corporate valuations are somewhat fluid.

Which brings me to my underlying question. How much of Milne’s finances — the black ink and the red — are tied up in the proposed Quechee Highlands mixed-use development planned for a 168-acre parcel just off I-89 at Exit 1 in Hartford?

I assume that Milne’s 50% mortgage obligations, totaling $680,000, are for Highlands-related land purchases. This is currently undeveloped land; if the B&M project is built, it could lead to a West Lebanon, New Hampshire style building boom in that area — making Milne’s stake a whole lot more valuable.

On the other hand, if it doesn’t get built, Boies and Milne will be stuck with the debt load on those 168 acres.

And the project is in serious trouble, having been denied an Act 250 permit by the regional environmental commission, and being noncompliant with the town of Hartford’s current development plan for the area. B&M has appealed the environmental commission’s ruling, and Milne has spoken loudly about what he sees as the anti-business bias and excessive regulatory power of the regional commissions.

Which makes me wonder how he’d handle Act 250 if elected Governor, but that’s another issue. The question raised by Milne’s financials is, how much risk has he taken on here?

In the past, he has semi-jokingly said that B&M is basically Boies’ money and Milne’s shoe leather. Well, to judge by his personal assets and liabilities, Scott Milne has a lot more riding on Quechee Highlands than his footwear. If he takes office and B&M’s appeal is still in process — which it almost certainly will be — then how would he separate policy from personal interest? Especially with the level of financial exposure he seems to have?

In releasing his financials, Milne criticized Governor Shumlin for offering too little information. And clearly, we have more numbers from Milne. But do we know what those numbers mean?

It may be perfectly obvious to someone who operates on that level, and it may be completely innocuous. But to a humble blogger, this looks like high stakes. And it’s all riding on a regulatory decision from the state of Vermont.

More of the same in the money game

So yesterday marked another campaign finance reporting deadline. I don’t know if it was intentional or not, but Scott Milne tried to bracket the news by making a bunch of his own.

And no, I don’t mean his 12 Seconds of Daily Show Fame. I mean yesterday’s unveiling of the Milne Education Plan, and this morning’s release of his personal finances.

Which perhaps drew some attention away from Milne’s return to the fundraising doldrums. After a very successful (by his modest standards) September, he failed to carry the Money Momentum into October. He raised a mere $12,000 in the first half of the month, bringing his total for the entire campaign to $146,000.

The latter total is vastly inflated by $39,000 from himself and his immediate family. Plus roughly another $20K from the Boies Family. (And I think he’s fresh out of Boieses.) He’s also got a $25,000 loan from himself on the books — soon to be forgiven, I’d guess. Add it all up, he’s got maybe $30,000 left at his disposal as he enters the home stretch.

One little note of kismet from the Milne report: he bagged a $150 donation from none other than Tom Salmon, former Auditor General. Salmon will forever be remembered for his famous line, “I need to be an authentic self-utilizing power along the lines of excellence.” I guess The Little Big Fish recognizes a kindred spirit among inarticulate candidates.

The other notable fundraising FAIL was the Dan Feliciano campaign, which seems to be slowly settling into the third-party mire. His fundraising total for the first half of the month, over $13,000, looks healthy; but it includes $10,000 from himself. Even with his own substantial gift, his campaign is in the red, having raised about $30,000 and spent $32,000. Still no sign of #Felicianomentum.

Contrast that with the Shumlin money machine, which raised $65,000 in the past two weeks for a campaign-to-date total of $777,000. And remember, he began 2014 with a lot of money in the bank. And he’s continued his post-Labor Day spending binge, paying out $236,000 in the first half of the month.

Just about the only happy Republican these days is Phil Scott. The People’s Lieutenant Governor kept up his furious pace; he took in $52,000 this time around, bringing his campaign-to-date total to $254,000. He’s spending just about as fast as he’s raising; campaign expenditures total $223,000, including a hefty $73,000 in the first half of October.

I haven’t checked, but this has GOT to be a record-breaker for most expensive statewide race, non-gubernatorial division. It also establishes Scott as a powerful fundraiser, which bodes well for a future campaign for Governor, should he ever decide to climb that mountain.

So, no big news at the top of the ticket. Status quo rules: Shumlin and Phil Scott have big bucks, Dean Corren continues to spend his $200,000 kitty, and Shumlin’s challengers are severely handicapped by a lack of funds.

Scott Milne finally gets the attention he deserves

Well, the punditocracy keeps saying that Scott Milne needs to take advantage of free media to get his message out. And now he has, big time: he earned himself a stout twelve seconds of national airtime on The Daily Show With Jon Stewart. The end of every show is a “Moment of Zen,” a goofy bit of context-free video from somewhere or other. Last night’s MoZ was taken from Vermont PBS’ gubernatorial debate.

Specifically, Milne’s opening statement, in which he managed to screw up the first line of his life story.

Screen Shot 2014-10-16 at 11.18.38 AM For those disinclined to click the video link, here’s a handy transcript.

“My name is Scott Milne. I’ve, uh, uh, third generation, um, ah, born in Vermont, uh, take that back, I was born in Brooklyn.”

Congratulations, Mahatma. You’ve made the big time.

BREAKING: Scott Milne holds a news conference! Also, Hell Freezes Over.

Scott Milne and potted plant. Make your own joke.

Scott Milne and potted plant. Make your own joke.

Two rare political events occurred simultaneously today in the library at Spaulding High School: Scott Milne held a news conference, and he unveiled a thoughtful, detailed policy initiative.

Yes, the campaign without a plan has finally come up with one — on education reform. The thesis statement: Vermont spends too much on K-12 education and not enough on higher education. The basic idea: foster efficiency by reorganizing the public school system, and invest the savings into a new program to provide every Vermont student with access to a free college education or vocational program. (The full plan is posted on his campaign website.)

It’s creative. It’s fresh. It’s downright audacious. It’s the kind of thinking that, to me, represents the best of moderate Republicanism: maximizing our investment in the public sector instead of mindlessly cutting. At the very least, it ought to generate some serious conversations about how we spend our education dollars.

There were, of course, spiders in the attic. The Milne plan on paper was seven single-spaced pages with plenty of detail (footnotes, even); but he was less than articulate in the give-and-take of a news conference. He abruptly shifted between explanations of his own plan and recycled attacks on Governor Shumlin. He made plenty of snide comments directed at the media, who were on relatively good behavior. (If he thinks we’re tough on him, he ought to attend a couple of the Governor’s news conferences.) And he didn’t have clear answers to a number of fairly simple questions.

But the biggest problem with today’s announcement was… today. 

It’s October 15th.

The election is three days from yesterday.

And this is the first in a promised series of policy announcements. (A proposal for reinventing state government will come in about two weeks — within days of the election.) After a summer of no ideas, Milne is going to empty the truck in the campaign’s closing days.

If he’d put forward this idea six months ago, or even three, then he might have sparked a serious conversation on the issue and positioned himself as a viable moderate alternative to Shumlin.

That’s conventional thinking, of course, and Milne will tell you he’s running an insurgent campaign. He believes this is the perfect time to start launching his policy ideas.

Well, if he’s right, and every political observer and activist in the state is wrong, then Milne can celebrate his election by holding a good old harvest-time Crow Pie Dinner and invite all of us to dig in. I’ll be at the front of the line.

The broad outline of the Milne plan, entitled “Investing in Vermont’s Future”:

— His previously announced two-year cap on the statewide property tax, designed to force the Legislature to get serious about reform. Any shortfall in school funding caused by the cap would come out of the state’s General Fund. That, in turn, would be made whole through some combination of cuts in other areas and tax increases. Milne favors spending cuts, but he wants to work out the details with the Legislature.

— Universal tuition-free education from pre-K through four-year degree or vocational training for every Vermonter at vocational centers, colleges and universities in the state system.

— The money for free tuition would come from savings in K-12 spending. To realize this, Milne proposes a reorganization of the system into 15 Regional Education Administration Districts (READs). READs would have authority over budgets. There would be no statewide property tax; instead, tax payments go to the READs, which would each set district-wide per-pupil spending.

— READs would foster efficiency because voters would have a stronger connection between school budgets and their taxes. This would lead to lower budgets, leaner spending, and voluntary consolidation of smaller districts.

— The state would ensure compliance with the Brigham decision mandating educational equity, by providing supplemental funding for READs with low per-pupil spending.

— School choice would be gradually broadened. Eventually, every family could send their kids to any school within their READ. School choice would not include private schools.

— For every two years a student attends Vermont schools, s/he would get one year of free post-high school education at any of the state’s public colleges, universities, or technical schools.

— Existing private colleges could join the system, if they’re willing to give a tuition break in exchange for access to more Vermont students.

— The deal would not include any tuition for institutions outside Vermont.

Milne argues that the offer of free tuition would be a powerful draw for people to move into Vermont, thus fueling our economy and putting our finances on sounder footing.

I see some problems with the Milne plan, and I’m sure you do, too. He assumes that a primary cost driver in public schools is the supposed disconnect between voting for school budgets and the resulting tax bill. I’m not at all convinced that this is as big a factor as Republicans think it is.

He also assumes a pretty high degree of public engagement in the READs. I think that’s tremendously optimistic; most of us don’t have the time, or inclination, to get seriously engaged in that process.

Then there’s the problematic Brigham fix. If the state is the funder of last resort, then doesn’t that retain one of the weak points of the current system?

A question about the free tuition. Is the two-year requirement for a year of free tuition retroactive? If so, then you’d potentially have thousands of high school graduates expecting free tuition next fall. If not, and the clock starts with the passage of this plan, then the four-year free tuition offer wouldn’t go into effect until current fourth-graders are graduating from high school. (A current fifth-grader couldn’t qualify for more than three years tuition-free.)

Another quibble (but these kinds of quibbles often doom policy initiatives): If a student attended 12 years of Vermont school, graduated, and is now a freshman at UVM, would s/he retroactively qualify for free tuition? If so, then you’re blowing a fresh hole in state colleges’ budgets. If not, you’ll have a whole passel of pissed-off parents.

And finally, in an effort to avoid any sort of state-mandated cuts, Milne puts an awful lot of faith in voluntary compliance. He criticizes Governor Shumlin for putting the onus on local voters and school boards; but his plan would force the voters and the READs to make some really tough choices, because his goal is to bring per-pupil spending from its current $17,500 to somewhere around the national average of $12,000.

That’s roughly a 30% cut. He sees room for savings in the alleged overstaffing of public schools, and (without saying so directly) in the extra costs of small school districts. Still, that’s a whacking great number, and it’s hard to imagine anything like that number surviving the policymaking process.

Still, it’s an idea. It’s a plan. I give Milne full credit for putting it together, and for finally giving his campaign a raison d’etre beyond “I’m Not Shumlin.”

I look forward to more of his plans. I just wish this had happened a long time ago.

It ain’t over till the Fat Man sings

All'alba vincerò! Vincerò, vincerò!

All’alba vincerò! Vincerò, vincerò!

Interesting. WCAX’s Kyle Midura, last seen as Twitter Guy during the gubernatorial debate, made his way eastward to beautiful Berlin, New Hampshire, where he caught up with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, stumping the North Country “on behalf of the state’s Republican candidate for Governor, Walt Havenstein.”

And, being a good Vermont reporter, Midura asked Christie if he’d be visiting Vermont to campaign for Mahatma Milne. (Well, I don’t think he said “Mahatma.”)

“We’ve got to focus with 25 days to go on those place where we think we’ve absolutely got the best chance,” Christie said. “That’s where I’m focusing my time.”

Okay, let’s look at that.

The latest polls have shown Scott Milne behind Governor Shumlin by 12 percentage points. And in New Hampshire?

The latest poll places Havenstein 10 points behind incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan.

Hmm.

Two points.

He won’t cross the river for two points.

Either he knows something about the Vermont race that he’s not telling, or it has less to do with gubernatorial races than with first-in-the-nation presidential primaries.

Either way, congratulations, Governor, on kicking a Republican candidate for Governor when he’s down. I assume that’s one of your duties as head of the Republican Governors Association.

Condos v. Eastwood: A surprisingly tame encounter

I had some hopes for VPR’s big Secretary of State debate at noon today. Incumbent Democrat Jim Condos, who also won the Republican nomination on a write-in vote but threw it back like a dead fish, faced off against Progressive Ben Eastwood.

I was expecting some sparks to fly. After all, it was Eastwood who spiked a motion at the Progs’ June convention to endorse Condos, referring to Mr. Secretary as a “crony capitalist.” And Eastwood has shown himself to be a loose cannon in the public sphere. So I was expecting Young Ben to come out with guns a-blazin’.

Well, he didn’t. He was, for the most part, rather passive. Also nervous, occasionally uninformed, and in general gave listeners no real reason to vote for him.

In fact, Jim Condos was the more aggressive of the two, pressing Eastwood on his past characterizations of corporations and lobbyists and Condos himself, and his ability to take on the numerous duties of the office. I’d expected Condos to just sail above the fray and basically ignore his challenger, but apparently some of Eastwood’s criticisms had hit a nerve.

For his part, Eastwood occasionally mentioned his past criticisms of Condos, but mostly in passing — as a way to add a little color to his questions and statements.

He did manage to do one thing that, for instance, Scott Milne failed to do: when given the opportunity to ask his opponent a question, he was ready with a good, solid, pertinent one about using the Secretary’s office to oversee lobbyists. Condos had no trouble answering it, but at least it was a solid effort.

Overall, though, Eastwood didn’t have much to offer. Which figures; he’s a young man with a background as an activist, but little or none as an administrator. And the Secretary of State’s office, more than anything else, is a big honkin’ bureaucracy that requires a steady administrative hand. As a political writer, I interact with one piece of that office — elections and campaign finance. There are four other major divisions: Corporate registration, professional regulation, archives and records, and providing information and advice to local governments. That’s a lot of responsibility.

Eastwood did offer a few ideas, but almost all of them had to do with campaigns and elections, and most are actually outside of the office’s purview. His top priority, he said, would be to create an online information exchange where the public could access legislation, testimony, and other information — and also provide input. A Reddit sort of community marketplace of ideas.

Condos’ rejoinder: that’s something for the Legislature to do online, not the Secretary of State. He has advised the Legislature on updating its website and enhancing transparency, but he can’t create the kind of open forum that Eastwood wants to see.

I could cite other examples, but the point is, Ben Eastwood is young, inexperienced, and enthusiastic. Some of his enthusiasms are germane; many are not. But in this debate, he failed to make a case against Condos, and failed to establish himself as a serious applicant for the job.

He did manage one thing, though: he didn’t embarrass himself or his party.

No, I did not watch the freak show.

A study in pink.

A study in pink.

In front of a Susan G. Komen-worthy bright pink backdrop, the recently rebranded Vermont Public Television (now d/b/a Vermont PBS) rolled out the Clown Car O’ Democracy last night.

Yes, the one and only gubernatorial debate featuring all seven candidates for Governor.

Which produced the amusing spectacle of Scott Milne standing uncomfortably next to a Duck Dynasty stunt double, and Dan Feliciano braving sudden death from the razor-sharp brim of a Church Lady hat.

“Amusing spectacle” it was, and amusement was all it was good for. As a way for actual voters to actually make an actual decision, it was a waste of time. And I haven’t seen the overnights, but I wonder if Vermont PBS got as many viewers (74 max) as the ill-fated Burlington Free Press livestreamed debate.

Certainly they could have done better with a rerun of Bob Ross’ “The Joy of Painting.”

In fact, I’d vote for Bob Ross over some of those candidates. And he’s dead.

This notion of an all-inclusive gubernatorial debate seems to bring cheer to some of my friends in the media. It’s so… Vermont, you know?

Well, yeah. But so are rural poverty and frost heaves and agricultural runoff in Lake Champlain.

Vermont law makes it very easy to get a spot on the ballot. Which is fine; I don’t mind having eleventy-bajillion candidates if they get enough petition signatures. But it doesn’t mean they deserve my attention or consideration.

There are, at most, three serious candidates for Governor: Peter Shumlin, Scott Milne, and Dan Feliciano. Ironically, in all the debates so far, we have yet to see the three of them sharing a stage by themselves. More debates are in our future, and maybe we’ll get to see the only matchup that matters. I hope so.