Looks like a real contest is developing in the Chittenden Central state Senate district, where three seats will be up for grabs in 2026. The three sitting solons, who seem likely to run for re-election, may find as many as four other names on the Democratic primary ballot next August.

In other words, Donkey Race!

Chittenden-Central is, geographically speaking, the smallest Senate district by a longshot. On a map it resembles Nepal after encontering an old-fashioned laundry mangle. It includes much of northern and central Burlington, the city of Winooski, a bit of Colchester, the city of Essex Junction, and part of the town of Essex. Politically speaking, it may be the most liberal Senate district in the state. The incumbents are Senate President Pro Tem Phil Baruth, listed on the ballot as a D/P, Democratic Sen. Martine Laroque Gulick, and P/D Sen. Tanya Vyhovsky.

So who’s running? Glad you asked.

Two non-incumbents in Chittenden Central filed campaign finance reports in July, but the implications are very different for each. If you’re a past candidate and you haven’t zeroed out your campaign accounts, you have to keep filing — and the July filings are labeled 2026. (A bunch of former senators or candidates from elsewhere filed in July including Brian Campion, Andy Julow, Irene Wrenner, and Katherine Sims, but it doesn’t mean they’re running next year. Doesn’t mean they’re not, either.)

Also filing in July was former TV anchor Stewart Ledbetter, who lost the 2024 primary despite spending a massive $60,000. His July filing reported $9,000 in funds left over from his very costly campaign, but it doesn’t commit him to a second run. There are definite rumblings that he is interested in another try, though.

A July filing from someone without active accounts from past years is a whole nother thing. Take Elaine Haney, head of Emerge Vermont and member of the Essex Junction city council. She filed in July, which indicates that she is planning to run for Senate next year. She also has a fundraising page on ActBlue, which is an even bigger hint. (Note: Haney’s candidacy was first reported by Matthew Vigneau on his “Sugaring Off” blog.)

The three incumbents in Chittenden Central all filed in July, but again, that’s no commitment to seek re-election. As far as I know, none have declared their intentions for 2026, although it’d be a surprise if any of them stepped aside.

Not filed with the Secretary of State but definitely considering a run: Nikhil Goyal, author, sociologist, and former advisor to Bernie Sanders. He confirmed his interest to me, but said he won’t make a formal decision until early next year. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t take the plunge.

Mentioned as a possible candidate: Erhard Mahnke, former head of the Vermont Affordable Housing Coalition, longtime Bernie associate, and drummer with the Brass Balagan street band. (Their stated mission: “Our aim is to continually demand the immediate elimination of all EVIL!”) I haven’t heard boo from him, although history would suggest a strong interest. He’s run for Senate twice before.

In 2020, Mahnke finished a distant 10th in the old Chittenden district, which had six Senate seats. He tried again in 2022 in the then-new Chittenden Central, and finished fourth behind Larocque Gulick by two votes. In both races, Mahnke was his own best supporter; he contributed more than half his 2020 bankroll of $25,000, and in 2022 he raised $17,000 including $10,000 from his own pocket.

So. With all those sharks swimming around, there must be blood in the water, right? Who’s vulnerable among the three incumbents?

The most obvious answer is Vyhovsky, a proud Progressive seen by some as too lefty for the Democratic electorate. My take is that people have seen her as beatable for years, but she keeps on winning. I’ll believe she’s vulnerable when she actually loses an election. There’s a lot of prog/Prog voters in Burlington and WInooski.

How about Larocque Gulick, then? Well, she was clearly vulnerable as a first-time candidate in 2022 when she beat Mahnke by a whisker. But in 2024 she actually finished in first place in the primary and general election.

The wild card is Baruth. A well-established lawmaker who’s risen to Senate leadership would seem safe, but he might have poisoned the Democratic well with his tactics on education reform that enabled passage of Act 73. He was involved in appointing freshman Sen. Seth Bongartz, a longtime board member of the private Burr and Burton Academy, as chair of the Senate Education Committee. (In doing so, he kneecapped Larocque Gulick, an experienced public educator who’d served as Education Commitee vice chair in the 2023-4 session and should have been in line to become chair.) As Education chair, Bongartz led the charge for school redistricting while Larocque Gulick was a critic of the process and a “No” vote on Act 73.

Baruth also seemingly enabled Senate Minority Leader Scott Beck, a faculty member at the private St. Johnsbury Academy, to wield tremendous influence in the process. Bongartz and Beck worked long and hard to convince (browbeat? bully? arm-twist?) the House to sign onto Act 73. Beck was then appointed to the School District Redistricting Task Force, where he (unsuccessfully) pushed hard for a massive redrawing of school districts.

Is that enough to make Baruth vulnerable? Possibly. He does represent a very liberal constituency, and Act 73 is deeply unpopular in the Burlington area. The Vermont-NEA, one of the more deep-pocketed and influential of Democratic constituencies, could put its weight behind a challenger in an attempt to punish Baruth. He will face a political dilemma in the 2026 legislative session: Does he keep pushing for Act 73 redistricting in defiance of his constituents’ views, or does he pull the plug on one of his signature “accomplishments” of 2025?

Still, it’s extremely rare for a sitting senator to lose a primary election. It’s not often that even a single candidate bothers to contest a Senate primary against an incumbent. The Chittenden Central race looks like one to watch in 2026, not to mention one for the history books, no matter what the outcome.