Gov. Phil Scott made a move this week that promises to pay off big time in purely political terms. If it actually accomplishes anything in the real world, that’ll be a bonus.

After insisting for weeks that his administration wasn’t making any plans to help the city of Burlington with its intertwined problems of homelessness, substance use, public safety, and perceptions of the city’s health, Scott announced at his Wednesday press conference that his administration is holding meetings with various Queen City stakeholders with an eye toward unveiling just such a plan “over the next couple of weeks.”

Vermont Public’s Peter Hirschfeld asked if this wasn’t “a change in posture” for Scott and his team. The governor replied that “maybe the perception” of his posture had changed, but the posture itself remained the same.

Which is obvious bullshit, but did you really expect him to openly acknowledge “a change in posture”? Of course not.

I mean, look. A few weeks ago he was brushing aside a reporter’s description of Burlington as “the economic engine of the state” and couldn’t recall the last time he walked down Church Street. Last fall, when his administration brought its dog-and-pony Capital for a Day to Chittenden County, the governor attended some events in the suburbs but skipped the ones in Burlington. And now he’s holding a series of summits with city luminaries? Yeah, that’s a change in posture and a pretty dramatic one.

Setting aside that bit of casual mendacity, it’s a really smart move. And it positions him to pull off a masterstroke that will cement his reputation as a practical centrist. Especially to the Burlington area’s donor class. You know, the Barons.

The Democratic majority on City Council had already put itself in Scott’s back pocket with its anti-crime rhetoric and recent resolution urging a crackdown on unpleasant activity in City Hall Park. They’re certain to welcome whatever package of “help” Scott chooses to offer. The pressure will be on Progressive Mayor Emma Mulvaney-Stanak and her allies to go along.

At this week’s presser, Scott positioned his effort as collaborative. “We want to work together,” he said. “We aren’t going to force ourselves on the city like we’re seeing across the country with the current administration in Washington.”

That’s nice. He won’t be sending in heavily-armed troops or running roughshod over Constitutional norms. But expect his plan to be strong on law ‘n order. Seven Days quoted longtime Scott aide Dustin Degree as blaming the city’s “failed progressive policies” and emphasizing “strong community policing and holding repeat offenders more accountable” as “the clear solutions to this problem.”

Oh. Nothing about the Scott administration’s dismal track record on homelessness and opioids. I see.

So expect Scott’s plan to be strong on enforcement and weak on addressing the real roots of the situation. Expect it to be a bitter pill for Mulvaney-Stanak and her fellow Progs to swallow. And expect city Democrats to stand right behind the governor.

I gotta say, it seems less likely in this context that Treasurer Mike Pieciak or Attorney General Charity Clark or any other prominent Democrat will run for governor in 2026, and more likely that we’ll get another long-odds candidate who will receive little more than lip service from the party.

We’ve seen this movie before. We saw it this spring, with Senate leadership’s effective collusion with the Scott administration on education reform. We saw it in the spring of 2021, when Scott only vetoed one bill and then-Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint said she and House Speaker Jill Krowinski had worked at “establishing healthier patterns” in their relations with Scott, which caused me to write this:

Balint and Krowinski made a conscious effort to avoid sending Scott bills he was likely to veto. That might be a good short-term strategy for the pandemic session, but it’s the kind of thing that has made the Democratic majorities seem toothless throughout Scott’s governorship.

Toothless then, probably toothless now and into next year. Hey, Rob Reiner just put out a sequel to “This Is Spinal Tap.” Maybe the Democrats’ 2026 campaign for governor will feature an 18-inch-high model of Stonehenge.