I can remember a time, not that long ago, when we believed the worst effect of climate change on Vermont would be a potential influx of climate refugees — people from coastal areas looking for safe havens in the hills and mountains of our state.

Yeah, about that.

We’re getting hit, very hard and very often, by the consequences of climate change in ways that outstrip all those places we used to look at with more than a touch of Green Mountain smugness. I’ve certainly wondered why people even live in the lowlands of Florida or Louisiana or Texas or why they hold onto beachfront property that’s being eroded away. Don’t they know better? Can’t they see the signs? And why should they expect the rest of us to underwrite their bad decisions?

Yeah, about that.

Rarely, if ever, have I seen a bunch of bad news on any subject to compare with what we’ve seen lately about how Vermont is in the crosshairs of climate change. It all adds up to one conclusion: Far from being immune, Vermont is in many ways uniquely vulnerable. We are at risk. And we’re repeatedly seeking help from others, who could understandably ask why they should bail us out when we insist on living in disaster-prone places like flood plains, riverside communities, or out in the countryside along dirt roads and unpaved driveways that can easily wash away. (Above image: Horn of the Moon Road in East Montpelier, washed out earlier this month.)

The evidence that Vermont’s got nothing on Miami or Galveston or the Outer Banks? A new report that examines all federal disaster declarations between 2011 and 2023, and finds that Vermont is very near the top in major disasters. We finished in a seventh-place tie with Kentucky and South Dakota with a total of 20 major disaster declarations in those 13 years. That doesn’t include two declarations already made this year, which doesn’t count the all-but-certain disaster designations for the two major flooding incidents in July.

Mind you, this ranking isn’t adjusted for geographic size. It’s just a counting stat. The states with higher totals than Vermont are all substantially larger — including California. And eight of Vermont’s 14 counties were near the top of all counties nationwide, led by Washington County, which was tied with three Kentucky counties in second place with 14 major disasters in the period.

Which naturally makes one wonder why Vermont has become so disaster-prone. The Associated Press took a hard look at that very question in a story picked up by media outlets across the country, entitled “Why Does Vermont Keep Flooding?” The answers include: Climate change fueling more extreme storms and heavy rains; a mountainous topography that sees rainfall funneled into waterways; communities and population centers located next to those waterways; and vulnerable infrastructure including bridges, culverts, dams, water treatment plants and miles upon miles of dirt roads. And as the article’s subtitle helpfully points out, “Experts Warn [such disasters] Could Become the Norm.”

Hooray?

There’s been plenty of bad news from other quarters as well:

• Seven Days reports that many rural homeowners could be stuck with unaffordable costs for rebuilding private roads and driveways.
• A CNN story about flooding in the Northeast Kingdom called Tuesday’s deluge “a 1-in-1,000-year rainfall event.” That kind of language should perhaps be retired since these events are happening with alarming regularity.
• VTDigger reports that some Waterbury residents whose homes have been approved for FEMA buyouts are still waiting for payment, and there’s no telling how much longer it will take.
• This week, our Congressional delegation sent a letter to Congressional budget writers begging for federal funding for short-term flood relief and longer-term resiliency efforts. The letter echoes a similar plea from one year ago — a plea that, as VTDigger noted, “went largely unanswered.”
• A study from the University of Vermont reported grave concerns about landslide potential around Burlington’s Riverside Drive, a potential fueled by climate change and by poorly thought-out human interventions.
• In just one small instance of flooding’s economic impact, the popular Kingdom Trails network saw “complete trail washout… culverts rise up out of the ground, bridges disappear” during peak tourist season.
• Vermont’s Emergency Board has approved $5 million in zero-to-low-interest loans to flood-damaged communities struggling to rebuild. The phrase “drop in the bucket” springs to mind.

This week’s flooding in the Northeast Kingdom was caused by a phenomenon that appears to be related to climate change and was impossible to predict: Heavy rainstorms that essentially stalled out and dumped up to nine inches of rain in some spots while nearby areas got less than an inch. It was all the more frightening because it was so unpredictable and so random. “Every time it rains now, everyone is cringing,” TammyLee Morin, the town clerk for Morgan, told VTDigger.

We’d better get used to that — an atmosphere of tension, watching the skies, monitoring the forecast and radar, wondering when Mother Nature will deliver another body blow. Odds are it’s going to happen again, sooner and more often than we think. We’d better start taking climate change and resiliency efforts a whole lot more seriously — and urgently — than we ever have before.

That applies to all of us, right up to Gov. Phil Scott, who has consistently voiced acceptance of human-caused climate change — and has consistently slow-played any actual policy changes or programs to meet the challenges we face. And who, according to Vermont Public, has run “out of metaphors” to describe the demoralizing impact of repeated disasters. That would be the same governor who refused to sign the Flood Safety Act, a bill aimed at reducing the effects of future floods. The bill had supermajority support in the House and Senate, so Scott didn’t even try to veto it. He couldn’t bring himself to support the bill’s three-year timeline for writing new regulations, calling it “reckless.”

Well. When we’re almost certain to see multiple flood disasters in the next three years, maybe it would be even more “reckless” to delay action any further. Maybe we should pick up the pace a little. Because like it or not, that’s exactly what Mother Nature has done.