The Vermont Legislature just wrapped up a fairly productive session, all told. Or should I say it will have been productive if Gov. Phil Scott doesn’t whip out the ol’ veto pen (Only in Journalism) and kill a whole bunch of bills.

And by all indications, that’s exactly what he’s about to do.

Might I take a moment to say, once again, that any Democrat who votes for Phil Scott isn’t serious about the Democratic agenda? Because the Legislature will have all it can do to override a couple, maybe three, gubernatorial vetoes. Even when you’ve got a supermajority, overrides are tough. So as long as Scott is governor, the Democratic vision for Vermont will remain frustratingly (or, if you don’t like Democratic policies, hearteningly) incomplete. Especially when it comes to climate change, where the governor is in position to decimate what the Legislature has accomplished.

There’s already been one veto this year, on the flavored tobacco ban. Override failed on a close vote in the Senate. By my unofficial and possibly incomplete count, we are probably in for six more. At least. Here’s the list.

We have to start with the yield bill, H.887, which sets property tax rates for the new fiscal year. Can’t do business without one of those. Scott is almost certainly going to veto the bill because it doesn’t do enough, in his view, to bring down double-digit property tax increases. Of course, his proposed “solution” is to whip out the credit card and borrow against future (unspecified) cost savings, which the Legislature has rightly rejected.

Next: Housing. Scott doesn’t like H.687, the combo platter of a housing bill and Act 250 reform. He wants more of the latter and less of the former. Housing was a major focus of this year’s session; if H.687 doesn’t survive, it’ll be a colossal failure to address one of Vermont’s most pressing challenges. And it’ll be yet another example of Scott’s unwillingness to compromise with a Legislature that has, dare I say it again, as much claim to an electoral mandate as he does.

Now we get to climate action, where Scott is likely to veto three of the four major climate bills approved by the House and Senate. The only one that might pass muster: S.310, which would define the role of state government in responding to natural disasters. On the chopping block:

• S.259, the climate superfund bill, which would force carbon polluters to help pay for the costs of climate change.
• H.289, an update to the Renewable Energy Standard.
• S.213, which would establish a state permitting system for building in river corridors. Scott prefers flooded buildings to more bureaucracy.

If the governor vetoes all three and overrides don’t happen, this year will be a major failure on climate change.

Also headed to Scott’s desk: H.72, which would create an overdose prevention site in Burlington. The governor is dead set against the idea because, in his mind, it would siphon away resources from his “proven” strategy. You know, the strategy that has resulted in record numbers of opioid-related deaths?

There are two five more bills that might get the veto treatment if Scott is feeling extra cranky that day: H.121, the data privacy bill, that would institute a private right of action in 2027 following a study. Scott is generally not a fan of PROAs, seeing them as costly and potentially court-clogging. H.766, the prior authorization reform bill. It would eliminate insurers’ mandates for prior authorization for patients of primary care doctors. Scott has expressed concerns about the impact on health care costs.

Also H.706, which would ban seeds treated with neonicotinoids. It’s just the kind of bill the governor loves to deep-six due to imaginary concerns about costs and markets. Ditto S.25, which would ban PFAS and other toxics from personal care products and other consumer items. Ditto ditto S.301, whose provisions include limits on the sales of dogs and cats by pet stores, aimed at cracking down on puppy mills.

Whether or not those five bills get the gubernatorial ziggy, Scott is on track to top the half-century mark in vetoes. He now sits at 45, according to the State Archives’ list of veto messages. The likely six would get him to 51 in less than eight years as governor. Add in the other five, you’d get a potential maximum of 11 vetoes this year alone and a Phil Scott total of 56. The previous record holder was Howard Dean, who vetoed 21 bills in his 12 years in office. (If Scott stays in office that long and keeps up the pace, he would more than triple, and perhaps even quadruple Dean’s total. And Dean used to be an outlier.)

Nevertheless, Scott continues to enjoy that “nice guy” image.

The Legislature has scheduled a one-day override session for June 17. That’s a Monday, which would seem to leave the door ajar for extension if needed. Either way, we’re not going to see a half-dozen or more override attempts. It’s just not in the cards. So what bills would get priority? Here’s my napkin calculation, based on no inside sources at all.

Start with the yield bill. That’s got to happen. After that, I’d guess H.687, the housing bill. It’d be awfully embarrassing to score a complete zero on housing. If they have bandwidth for a third override, I’d say one of the top two climate bills — the Renewable Energy Standard or the Carbon Polluters Pay bill. The former would be more impactful on reducing emissions, but the latter is a big sexy attack on evil corporations.

Otherwise, sorry. Not gonna happen. Well, shall I say extremely unlikely to happen. It’s the cost of divided government. Or to put it plainly, it’s the cost of an electorate with a curiously divided mind. They elect Democrats up and down the ticket, and happily install a guy at the top who’s hellbent on limiting those Dems’ ability to get stuff done.