Interim Update: I’ve been told that Sen. Kesha Ram has moved to Shelburne. If so, that dramatically changes my calculus. I’d consulted her legislative webpage, which lists her residence as in Burlington. I’m pursuing confirmation, and will rewrite that section if need be.

Update Update: Sen. Ram confirms she has moved out of Burlington. That changes things quite a bit; I’m writing an amended post instead of trying to change this one.

Thanks to a law adopted in 2019, the state will have make some major changes to the Chittenden County district during the reapportionment process. The law sets a maximum of three lawmakers in multi-member districts, and Chittenden currently has a ridiculous six at-large seats. It’ll have to be split in half, at minimum. Since the Senate itself has the final say, I expect the new boundaries will give all six Chittenden incumbents a smooth path to re-election. Which probably means the new boundaries won’t be the best possible ones.

Also, sensible boundaries would make it possible for Republicans to pick off a seat or two. Now, Vermont Dems don’t abuse their redistricting power nearly as much as Republican majorities in other states, but I bet they want to keep Vermont’s biggest county to themselves. One factor will make it easier to protect incumbents: The Chittenden district will almost certainly acquire a seventh seat. Either that, or more of Chittenden County will have to be moved to non-Chittenden districts, as is already the case for Colchester.

By; sheer population, Chittenden County should have 7 1/2 Senate seats. I expect the most likely outcome is that it will get a seventh seat, and Colchester will continue to round out the Grand Isle district. (If any incumbent’s going to be protected, it’s Dick Mazza.) And then the bloodletting will commence; maybe the Northeast Kingdom will lose a seat. Could the newest and most conservative of senators, Russ Ingalls, get the shaft?

So let’s do some irresponsible speculating re: the Chittenden district, on the assumption that it gets a seventh seat. We’ll try to keep communities intact while distributing the population evenly.

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