Monthly Archives: September 2015

A handful of numbers, signifying not much

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Today’s big political news is yesterday’s release of a new poll from the Castleton Polling Institute. It measured name recognition and favorability for the declared gubernatorial candidates. The headline number, that Phil Scott has 77% name recognition, is not a surprise at all. He’s the only one in the field who’s run statewide general-election campaigns, and he’s done so each of the last three times. He’s also held numerous high-profile events, such as his Job For A Day Tour and the annual Wheels for Warmth charity drive. It’d be a shock if he wasn’t the most widely recognized.

(The importance of statewide campaigns in building familiarity can be seen by Scott Milne’s very strong 74% and Randy Brock’s respectable 60%.)

Overall, it’s so early in the campaign that the poll is largely meaningless except as a baseline for future polls. That’s exactly the word chief pollster Rich Clark used in characterizing the survey; he downplayed “any sort of predictive value.” Indeed, there’s nothing here that a good candidate can’t overcome in the 11 months until the primary. But hey, the goat’s been slaughtered, so let’s read the entrails.

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Nap Time with Uncle Jim

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I just had the misfortune of listening to former Governor Jim Douglas “interviewing” Lt. Gov. Phil Scott. It was an interview in the strictest sense of the word: Douglas talked, and Scott talked back. But if you were expecting insight or depth from this meeting of veteran public servants, you had to be sadly disappointed.

At the very least, I was hoping for some hot man-on-man action: the top Republican of the 2000s and the top Republican of the 2010s slapping each other on the back so hard they risked injury. But it was far less than that. It was bland. It was issue-avoidant. It was… DULL.

The occasion: Douglas was guest hosting Common Sense Radio on WDEV. Scott was the guest on the second half of the show, from 11:30 to noon. Well, they didn’t actually start until 11:35 because commercials, and Douglas wrapped it up at 11:56, God knows why. Early lunch date?

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The cat came back

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Hey, remember when Peter Galbraith gave up his bought-and-paid-for State Senate seat last year, to pursue a loftier cause?

The Townshend Democrat said his growing involvement in an informal effort to find a political solution to the Syrian civil war won’t allow him to continue serving as a state senator.

Well, that noble sentiment appears to be inoperative. Or so reports the (paywalled) Vermont Press Bureau:

Will former Windham County Sen. Peter Galbraith join the crowd of candidates hoping to succeed Gov. Peter Shumlin? It seems more and more likely. Galbraith has not returned calls regarding that inquiry, but sources say he is actively considering it.

GalbraithOh, good Lord. Longtime readers know how I feel about Galbraith; he spent $50,000 of his oil fortune to grab an open Senate seat in 2010, and quickly made himself a hated figure in the Statehouse because of his immense self-regard (even by Senate standards!) and his habit of loudly promoting his own ideas. Made you wonder how he ever made a living as a “diplomat.”

Well, apparently his ego is getting in the way of his peacemaking impulses. The people of Syria will just have to wait, while he ponders a vanity candidacy for governor.

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Mike Smith, unofficial publicist for the Scott campaign

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If the past couple of Sundays are anything to judge by, Mike Smith may be trying to recast himself as less of a partisan figure. The new host of Not The Mark Johnson Show on WDEV has been a devout Republican throughout his adult life, as far as I can tell; and until recently, his weekly opinion columns have consisted largely of Republican boilerplate.

The last two have been resolutely nonpolitical. But if he’s trying to rebrand himself as a nonpartisan for the sake of his radio credibility, he’ll have to watch what he says on WCAX, where he’s an occasional political analyst.

Several days ago, after Sue Minter formally entered the gubernatorial race, Smith appeared on Channel 3 along with fellow analyst Steve Terry. (Presumably they’re the Point-Counterpoint of WCAX.) And here’s an excerpt from their not-terribly-interesting analysis.

Steve Terry: This is now a wide-open race. It gives Democrats, those who vote in the primary, a real solid choice.

Mike Smith: The ability of both Shap Smith and Sue Minter to distance themselves from the Shumlin administration is going to be key for them.

Steve Terry: One of the things that I’m looking at among the three Democrats is how strong they push a single issue of job creation. They may mention jobs a little, but it’s never blank equals jobs.

Mike Smith: Right now, Phil Scott owns that fiscal message.

Okay, bud. Hold it right there.

“Phil Scott owns that message”?

Pray tell, why?

Phil Scott has done nothing to claim ownership of that message. Well, unless you count his endless Worker For A Day publicity stunts.

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Some good news arrives by a very circuitous route

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Here’s something you wouldn’t expect, based on all the continued carping about Vermont Health Connect. The Times Argus, Saturday edition:

Vt. Health Exchange Called the Best

And Seven Days:

GAO: Vermont’s Health Exchange More ‘Operational’ Than Others

The news comes from an audit of state health exchange IT systems conducted by the Government Accountability Office, and released on Wednesday. The Vermont rating was not highlighted by the GAO, but it was definitely there. A chart on page 38 of the 109-page report shows that Vermont had the best operational status of any state-run health exchange. In a measure of four categories, Vermont was judged “fully operational” in three, and “partially operational” in the other one.

The chart was first reported in the Connecticut Mirror, which highlighted Connecticut’s rating of “partially operational” in all four.

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Tweeting past the graveyard

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Gee, what’s on my Twitter feed this morning? Ah, a fresh bit of puffery from VTGOP Chair David Sunderland!

Fact-checking time!

RealClearPolitics’ average of the top national polls: John Kasich in 10th place with a measly 2.5%.

If that’s a surge, he must have started from negative 10.

Now, if Sunderland is talking New Hampshire specifically, he’s got a bit more ground to stand on. In RCP’s average of NH polls, Kasich is in third place with 10.3%. And he has legitimately “surged” in the Granite State; two months ago, he was down in bottom-feeder territory.

That’s a creditable figure. And a testament to the relatively clear-thinking nature of the NH Republican electorate, which is more interested in frugal, responsible government (and less interested in fact-free, over-the-top rhetoric) than Republicans nationwide.

In short, Sunderland got it right if he meant a very localized surge. But nationally? Kasich’s going nowhere.

They paved (a tiny bit of) paradise and put up solar panels

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VTDigger’s Friday feed is infected with a bit of uncharacteristic headline fearmongering.

HIGH SPACE DEMANDS FOR VERMONT’S FUTURE SOLAR FARMS IF ENERGY STAYS LOCAL

The story concerns a presentation to the Legislature’s Solar Siting Task Force by Asa Hopkins of the Public Service Department. And by “HIGH SPACE DEMANDS,” it means Hopkins’ estimate of between 8,000 and 13,000 acres of solar panels statewide. That’s assuming we are to meet our legally-mandated goal of 90% renewable energy by the year 2050.

Wow. That sounds like a lot of land.

Is it?

Not really. The state of Vermont has almost 6,000,000 acres. A conscientious reporter (or editor) might have thought to include that fact.

So, if you take the upper end of the estimate, solar panels would cover two-tenths of one percent of Vermont. (A conscientious headline writer might have asked whether “HIGH SPACE DEMANDS” is an accurate characterization.)

You know what? I’d take that, if it means getting 90% of our energy from local, renewable sources.

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Vermont Republicans: Not buying the snake oil

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This week, the Castleton Polling Institute released a presidential poll of Vermont voters. The number that made headlines: Just as many Republican voters favor Bernie Sanders as any Republican candidate.

The actual result: Bernie’s in a three-way tie with Donald Trump and Ben Carson among Republicans, at a measly 12%. (It’s also worth noting that Hillary Clinton gets 4% support among VT Republicans.)

That’s interesting. But to me, there are two more notable takeaways from the poll.

First, Vermont’s Republican electorate remains splintered and undecided. The fact that no candidate got more than 12% is awfully telling. The real winner is “Not Sure,” with 28%. In other words, Vermont Republicans are thoroughly underwhelmed by what they’ve seen so far. I mean, 16% of them are backing a Democrat, for goodness sakes. That’s almost half who can’t settle on a Republican candidate.

Second, the state’s Republican electorate is relatively immune to the blandishments of snake-oil salespeople.

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Further Adventures in Broadening the Base

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Protip: When a political operative posts something on Front Porch Forum, every FPF member in that town will see it. And sometimes, one of them will send it on to me.

Case in point: This FPF message from Ron Lawrence, chair of the Essex Republicans.

Get Involved with the Essex Republicans
RON LAWRENCE, RLAWRENCE41@COMCAST.NET, Lawrence Hts
In recent days, it’s been out of vogue to stand for “less government” and “personal responsibility”; but jobs are leaving Vermont, and our children are leaving with them. The rest of us are left holding the bag for a very expensive government. These things are not an accident. They are the result of decisions we make and the people we elect.
The Essex Republicans are the official town committee for the Republican Party. We have current initiatives in three main areas: Community, Communication, and Candidates.
In our Community, we seek to establish programs that help us to better connect with each other, to appreciate our own unique history, and to uphold the values that history has taught us. In the area of Communications, we are developing new ways of sharing those values. One such value is the civil discussion of issues. This takes practice. It also takes the development of new venues and media to allow that discussion to happen in a safe and civil way. Finally, we are actively recruiting and supporting candidates. Running for office is an enormous, personal commitment. The Essex Republicans are working to ensure that we have good candidates, and that our candidates do not have to go it alone.
There is more to the Essex Republicans than you may know. We are holding our bi-annual caucus on September 21st, 7 p.m. at the Essex Center Grange. This is our biannual reorganization meeting and your chance to become a member. You need not be a member to get involved, but membership gives you a vote in committee decisions.
By contrast, the politics of “caring” haven’t worked out like many have hoped. People are beginning to sense that change is needed. If you want to be part of that change, then I urge you to join us at our caucus on September 21st.
Respectfully,
Ron Lawrence,
Essex Republicans chair

I sense a touch of “white conservative persecution mania” in that first sentence. Does he feel like an oppressed minority because his party is in a perpetual minority position, and its only apparent path to victory is to turn away from the hard-right base and moderate its message?

Aww, too bad.

But the sentence that really caught my attention is the one near the end. I’ve rendered the line in boldface.

By “the politics of ‘caring,'” I presume he means liberalism. We’ve been fighting the War on Poverty for 50 years and we’ve still got poor people, so it’s time to give up. Something like that.

So yeah, by all means, let’s try “the politics of ‘not giving a f*ck'” instead. It worked so well in the Bush administration’s response to Hurricane Katrina.

Brainstormin’ with Mr. Google

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The candidate works the room.

The candidate works the room.

Matt Dunne, former state senator, current Google exec and Democratic candidate for governor, is slow-rolling his campaign unveil with a series of Community Forums around the state. On Tuesday night, he made a stop in downtown Montpelier; about 20 people gathered in the upstairs offices of Local 64, a coworking space. (Appropriately trendy location, yes?) Some nibbly snacks were on offer, as well as appropriately local beer. (Your Reporter contented himself with an excellent iced tea purchased at the North Branch Cafe downstairs.)

The takeaway: ehh, it was a perfectly cromulent way to low-key a campaign launch. Nothing wrong with the idea. But I have to admit, I take these kinds of events with a massive grain of salt.

First, it’s not exactly a new concept. Bruce Lisman reintroduced himself to Vermonters with a Listening Tour, and Phil Scott spent a few nights last winter holding Economy Pitches. If Matt Dunne is trying to present himself as a different kind of candidate, borrowing chapters from the Phil Scott Playbook isn’t the best way to make that case. (Nothing against Phil, he’s just not a cutting-edge kind of guy.)

Second, when I walk into a room containing oversized pads of white paper on easels and a goodly supply of Sharpies, something inside me shrivels up a little. I guess it’s all those idea sessions I sat through in my previous working lives. The assembled are addressed with great earnestness, we offer ideas, they get written down on the white pads, the full pages get taped to the walls, everybody leaves, and — in my experience — nothing much comes of it.

Dunne promised otherwise. “The whole list will be posted online,” he said at the event’s conclusion. After seeking further input, he said, the ideas gathered at the forums “will be incorporated into our platform.”

I kinda hope not. But we’ll get to that later.

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