Tag Archives: voter turnout

So, predictions.

Let’s get something out there up front. I suck at predictions. I’m not particularly plugged into The People or the political establishment of either party. I’m not a statistical expert; I can’t evaluate the polls for insights and/or flaws. I tend to let my heart get in the way. (Yes, I do have a heart. I’ve been tested.) In 2014, I confidently foresaw an easy re-election win for Peter Shumlin. Which is about the only real test for a would-be prognosticator in my roughly five years of being a Vermont Political Observer.

So stack up the disclaimers like firewood before I take a timorous tiptoe out on a short limb and say…

I think Sue Minter is our next governor.

It’ll be close. Might even need to be affirmed by the Legislature, should Bill Lee draw enough votes to keep her under 50 percent.

Up until three weeks ago, I thought Phil Scott would win. Since then, the momentum is all Minter’s.

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Cautionary notes on the Phil Scott inevitability: The numbers game

Submitted for your consideration, two politicians. One is widely seen as a failure; the other, a stunning success.

Now, two numbers: 110,970 and 87,075.

Finally, we raise the curtain.

The first politico is Randy Brock. He won 110,970 votes in his “disastrous” 2012 run for governor.

The second is Scott Milne. He garnered 87,075 votes in his 2014 near-victory.

Randy Brock the “failure” outpolled Scott Milne the “success” by nearly 24,000 votes.

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