Tag Archives: Kamala Harris

The Donkey in the Room

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The coverage of this year’s Vermont elections — including, often, my own — generally ignores one factor that will outweigh any of the issues or trends we explore ad nauseam. This includes (1) the much-anticipated tax revolt, which may or may not be a reality, (2) the Barons of Burlington’s plot to kill the state Senate supermajority, and (3) the Democrats’ failure to mount a serious challenge to Gov. Phil Scott. Or anything else you could name.

I refer to the national election. The race for president and the battle for Congressional majorities. This cannot be ignored in any assessment of Vermont’s elections.

There is always a substantial jump in turnout between a midterm election and the ensuing presidential. Since 1994, the smallest jump was between 1994 and 1996, with a 16.7% increase. The biggest was between 2012 and 2014, with a 38.8% increase. The average midterm:presidential increase in that period was 24.1%.

Not all cycles are created equal. 2012:2014 was an outlier on each end, with high turnout for Barack Obama’s re-election followed by 2014’s plunge due to a lackluster gubernatorial contest between mortally wounded incumbent Peter Shumlin and dismally bland challenger Scott Milne.

(Brief digression. The 2014 election was the outlier of all outliers, as Shumlin suffered a catastrophic drop in support.. He’d won 170,749 votes in 2012 — and only 89,509 in 2014. Milne, who very nearly beat Shumlin, actually drew 24,000 FEWER votes in 2014 than losing Republican Randy Brock had in 2012.)

But while not all cycles are created equal, there’s a clear and obvious pattern. A lot more Vermonters go to the polls when the presidency is at stake than when it’s not.

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The Harris Phenomenon

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Pardon my departure from the usual provinces of Vermont politics, but there’s something that must be said and I haven’t heard it anywhere else.

Kamala Harris is on one hell of a run.

I can’t think of a political figure in my lifetime who’s accomplished anything close to what she’s done in the brief period of time since President Biden ended his bid for a second term. I really don’t think I’m exaggerating about this. Compared to the normal, glacial pace of presidential campaigns, the Harris effort is an eyeblink.

Most recently, there was the debate. I believe MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell called it the strongest performance in presidential debate history, full stop. If it wasn’t, it was damn close. Harris got her talking points across, she subtly needled Donald Trump into unhinged rants (transgender surgery on immigrants in prison?????), and she handled his obnoxious behavior with good humor. It was like Bugs Bunny facing Yosemite Sam. She made it look effortless. Or like a woman who’s spent her career having to deal with powerful men.

It’s just the latest chapter in a campaign that formally began only a month and a half ago when Biden dropped out on July 21. This won’t mean much to anyone besides me, but I tested positive for Covid in early August and was sick for a month. My illness lasted almost as long as the entire Harris campaign to date. That’s simply remarkable.

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So You’re Saying There’s a Chance

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I’ve previously discussed the Republicans’ chances of ending the Dem/Prog supermajority in the House, which are essentially zero. Now it’s time for the Senate, where the Republicans do have an actual chance at ending the supermajority — but the odds are stacked against them.

Scene setting: During the current biennium, the D/P contingent totaled 23 while the R’s had only seven. Twenty votes constitute the narrowest of supermajorities, so the Dems have had a nice little margin for error.

The Republicans need to post a net gain of at least four seats in November to end the supermajority, but every seat they pick up makes it harder to override.

Quick assessment: If absolutely everything broke their way, the Republicans could pick up a maximum of five more seats — which would leave the D/P majority with 18, two short of a supermajority. But the chances of that are slim at best. The Republicans are more likely to win a seat or two, which would preserve the supermajority but make overrides harder to achieve. If you spin the scenario the other way, the Dems could hold serve and pick off one Republican seat.

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Bernie Does the Business

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I tell you, Bernie Sanders may not be running as a Democrat, but at the DNC this week he played the loyal party soldier to the hilt. In his Tuesday speech, he devoted about half his 12 minutes to praising the Biden-Harris administration, quickly ran through his Greatest Hits (to a lukewarm reaction from the crowd, more on that later), and called for an immediate cease-fire in the Middle East without mentioning Israel, Gaza, or Netanyahu, or uttering a single word of criticism for American policy.

But the biggest tell of all: After his customary slams at “the billionaire class,” his calls to “get big money out of our political process” and his bemoaning of “billionaires in both parties” being “able to buy elections, including primary elections,” Bernie was followed to the stage by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who is not only a billionaire, but looks like what a 6-year-old thinks a billionaire looks like. I mean, just add a top hat, vest, and gold pocket watch, and he’d look right at home in a Thomas Nast cartoon. Take away the hair and you’ve literally got the Marvel supervillain Kingpin.

And for what must have been the first time ever at a Democratic convention, Pritzker got applause by boasting of being “an actual billionaire.” You want to talk big money buying elections, Bernie? Pritzker bought himself the top job in Illinois by pouring $323 million into his two campaigns for governor.

The speakers list at major party conventions is a carefully curated thing, calculated to send messages and evoke feelings and impressions in the audience. They knew exactly what they were doing when they put Pritzker after Sanders. Hell, Bernie knew exactly what he was doing when he slammed billionaires buying elections — and Pritzker knew what he was doing when he implicitly dismissed Bernie’s rhetoric.

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Well, Now They’d All Better Know What They’re Doing

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Going to abandon my usual policy of sticking to Vermont politics. Perhaps I can be permitted an exception for one of the most consequential events in our nation’s history — the decision of President Joe Biden to abandon his bid for re-election.

When Sen. Peter Welch came out in favor of Biden’s withdrawal on July 10, I wrote that he had better know what he’s doing. In the wake of Biden’s decision, that sentiment now applies to everyone in Democratic Party circles, up to and including the President himself. They’d damn well better know what they’re doing. And they’d damn well better not screw this up, which seems to be the default setting for the Democrats going all the way back (at least) to 1968, when I was a teenager staring down the barrel of the Vietnam War and the party tore itself apart. And still nearly won the election. (Probably should have, if not for Richard Nixon making back-door deals with South Vietnamese leadership. As reported in Garrett Graff’s Watergate.)

1968 was the last time a sitting Democratic President voluntarily relinquished the position. I’m not drawing comparisons beyond that, because the circumstances were wildly different. They were, in fact, much more fraught, much direr, than the current situation. And yes, the Democrats nearly won that election.

I am saying that the process of choosing Biden’s replacement has got to be cleaner than the trainwreck that happened after LBJ’s withdrawal, or the Dems risk handing control of the country to Donald Trump.

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Peter Welch Had Better Know What He’s Doing

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I haven’t written about the Joe Biden debate aftermath because (1) this is a blog about Vermont politics and (2) I have no earthly idea what’s really going on, and neither do you.

But U.S. Sen. Peter Welch has now weighed in, taking to the opinion pages of the Washington Post to become the first Democratic senator to call for Biden to withdraw from the presidential campaign. So (1) the story is fair game for a #vtpoli blog and (2) I have thoughts.

First of which is, it’s absolutely uncharacteristic for Welch to be the first soldier over the parapet and into No Man’s Land. Welch is a cautious consensus-builder, best known in the House for being a loyal member of Nancy Pelosi’s team and for his diligent efforts to find common ground with rural Republicans. I don’t remember a single time when Welch was out in front of any issue, let alone the political hot potato of the season.

And that makes me think he has solid grounds for this decision. Welch is never, ever one to go off half cocked.

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