Tag Archives: Caleb Elder

After the Long, Dark Night, a Journey Through the Desert

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In my Election Night post, I pointed out the parallels between Vermont’s elections in 2014 and 2024. Both were rebukes of Democratic officeholders; the former, Peter Shumlin; the latter, a couple dozen or so members of the Legislature.

There are parallels, to be sure but they end here: 2014 was largely aimed at Shumlin, while the entire Democratic establishment found itself in the crosshairs this year. And each and every one of them had better be prepared to do some real soul-searching. Because they didn’t see this coming, not at all. They believed the Democratic base was solidly in their corner. Some slippage was expected, but nothing like this.

Behind their misperception of the electorate is a more serious disconnect: Over the last two years, they completely lost touch with the people. They pursued an ambitious legislative agenda and, thanks to House and Senate supermajorities, they enacted an unprecedented number of bills despite gubernatorial objection.

They believed in their agenda. They believed they had a mandate to deliver on the promises of 2022. They believed they were moving Vermont toward a more prosperous and equitable future. One of two things is true: They got the agenda badly wrong, or they completely failed to connect it with the hopes, fears and concerns of the voters, especially outside the cities and suburbs.

Well, there’s a third factor: They made mistakes in crafting legislation. The most impactful was whatever they did to school funding that led to the unintended consequence of substantial property tax hikes for many Vermonters. It’s not easy to make sweeping changes in complex systems. The Legislature has precious few resources of its own, and was operating without any help from Phil Scott’s executive branch.

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Repeat After Me: “It’s Only a Movie”

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Sen. Chris Bray seems to have contracted a mild case of the fantods regarding his prospects for re-election to a [checks notes] seventh term in office. He’s raised quite a bit of money, and he’s spent even more than he’s raised. Before the August primary, he and fellow Addison County Sen. Ruth Hardy spent big against a challenge from Rep. Caleb Elder that, frankly, was doomed from the start. As I said in my previous post, incumbent senators just don’t lose unless they’ve committed gross malfeasance, aged beyond the electorate’s tolerance, or done something equivalently heinous.

And now, Bray is spending beyond his means against a surprisingly well-funded challenge from Republican Steven Heffernan (and a not-nearly-so-well-funded challenge from Republican Landel Cochran). And I get it; in his position, he shouldn’t be taking anything for granted. But I’m here to tell you that Bray ain’t losing. Heffernan’s odds are roughly equivalent to a snowball in a very hot place.

Look. Besides the fact that incumbent senators never lose, there’s the district. It’s been a full generation since Addison sent a Republican to the senior chamber: Tom Bahre in 2000, the year of the great civil unions backlash. Since then, two Democrats every two years for a grand total of 22 elected Dems to zero Republicans. In 2022, Bray and seatmate Ruth Hardy each received more than 33% of the vote, while third-place Republican Lloyd Dike lagged with 16.4%. Republicans have routinely finished far out of the running in Addison, except for those years when the GOP didn’t even bother to field candidates.

Yes, Heffernan is a more credible figure than Dike, one of the radical right hopefuls who co-signed a 2022 newspaper ad denying that global warming exists and asserting that greenhouse gases are actually good for us and the planet. Heffernan isn’t one o’ them. But he’s not winning, either. Not in Addison, not in a Senate race against two established Democratic incumbents.

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Howard Dean Needs to Make a Decision

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So I went looking for an image of Howard Dean for this post, and I came across the absolutely perfect specimen: A seven-year-old segment of “Morning Joe” entitled “Howard Dean: Baby Boomers Need To Get Out Of Way Of Young Leaders.” And wearing a Grandpa sweater as he said it:

The baby boomers have got to get out of the way. It’s my generation. I’m happy to advise. I don’t think that we need to be in the forefront anymore.

Maybe the 75-year-old Dean should listen to his 68-year-old self. Or maybe not, I have mixed feelings. But he needs to make a move one way or the other, because the days until filing deadline are flying by and as long as Dean keeps up his Hamlet act, he’s an obstacle to other potential Democratic candidates.

Besides, of course, Poa Mutino. Correction: Mutino is running as an independent, not a Democrat.

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Sure, Hundreds Have Been Unsheltered, But Let’s Not Forget the Real Tragedy: Important People Have Had Their Feelings Hurt

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There’s a great deal of desperate history-rewriting going on after the disheartening political debate over emergency housing. Everybody is shifting blame. No wonder; the outcome was not a solution to the crisis, but a patchwork of compromises intended to carefully balance the suffering of the unhoused against the comfort level of Our Political Betters. It’s nothing that anybody can take pride in.

The Scott administration is blaming the Legislature for, I don’t know, failing to defy the governor’s insistence on ending the program as scheduled. Legislative leaders who were happy to kill the program until it got too embarrassing are now blaming the administration for failing to plan a transition, which is true enough but doesn’t absolve Statehouse leadership from their failure to heed the warnings coming from housing advocates and, well, people like me.

There’s one thing both sides can agree on: The real villain is Brenda Siegel.

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