I knew it was going to happen. There was no reason to expect any other outcome.

The annual “point-in-time” count of people experiencing homelessness showed a slight decline in total homelessness in Vermont — but a massive increase in unsheltered homelessness. And the results almost certainly underestimate the true scope of the problem.

Why? Three reasons, as explained by Carly Berlin, the housing reporter shared by VTDigger and Vermont Public. First, the PIT count happened on a very cold night in January, when the city of Burlington was operating an overnight warming shelter that gave dozens of people a very temporary place to stay. Second, the PIT count should always be considered an undercount because, well, homeless folk can be hard to find. And third, this is especially true of the unsheltered; they might be anywhere, and the state makes no effort at all to keep track of where they are or how they’re doing. No matter how diligent the counters are, they’re not going to find everyone.

Also, it must be said that if the PIT count were conducted now, the number of unsheltered would doubtless be even higher because of cuts in the General Assistance Emergency Housing program, a.k.a. the motel voucher system, imposed in the last couple of months.

The reality is worse, but the reported figure is appalling enough. Vermont used to have high homelessness but relatively few unsheltered. But this year’s PIT count showed a nearly 63% increase in unsheltered homelessness. There’s an inarguable link to the Scott administration’s determined efforts to cut the motel voucher program. As inadequate as that program is, it’s a hell of a lot better than no shelter at all. Also, mandatory reminder that Scott has yet to propose a replacement for the voucher system. Its continuation is on HIM, as is the spike in unsheltered homelessness.

Berlin reports that by law, the state can use up to 1,100 motel rooms as temporary shelter. But because of budget cuts and administrative decisions, the most recent figure shows that the state is only using 662 rooms. Meanwhile, unsheltered homelessness is way, way up. Time for a few words from someone on the front lines, as reported by Berlin:

“What we’re talking about is our neighbors,” said Paul Dragon, executive director of the Champlain Valley Office of Economic Opportunity, at the press conference. “The family with children sleeping in their car, driving around trying to find a safe place to park … it’s not unusual. It’s quite common.”

This is a humanitarian crisis and a moral disgrace. It’s a stain on our reputation as a place where people look out for each other, and a betrayal of the cherished belief that our state will provide a robust social safety net for those in need. Not to mention a betrayal of Scott’s oft-repeated promise to care for the most vulnerable. It’s on the governor, it’s on his responsible officials (including alleged nice guy Chris Winters, head of the Department of Children and Families), and it’s on all those Democratic voters who meander to the polls every other year and cast their votes for the guy who doesn’t give a rat’s about homelessness.

Oh, I suppose he does care. But only in a Susan Collins-y way, with furrowed brow and earnest expressions of concern taking the place of actual action.

Before I go, I need to point out a curious case of headline writing. Berlin’s stories in Digger and Vermont Public carried the same header: “Unsheltered Homelessness Spikes in Vermont as Need Outstrips Safety Net.” The story in Seven Days by Courtney Lamdin chose to emphasize the slight drop in total homelessness: “Vermont Has Made Little Progress on Homelessness, Report Finds.”

That’s an interesting choice, isn’t it? Clearly the big news from the PIT count is the dramatic rise in unsheltered homelessness. And yet in Seven Days, it plays second fiddle to a statistically insignificant change in total homelessness. It’s a curious editorial decision, which is a polite way of saying a wrong decision that downplays the bad news. Statistics on readership show that many people don’t go past the headline — especially one that’s as dry and neutral as this — and many more don’t get past the lede. Some non-zero number of Seven Days readers didn’t even make it to paragraph three, and took away the impression that nothing much has changed on homelessness.

When, in fact, it has, thanks to our governor and his minions. The PIT count is the completely unsurprising and utterly foreseeable consequence of the governor’s actions.